College Football Playoff: Predicting the inaugural 12-team CFP field, 2024 national champion
The 2024 season marks the introduction of the first 12-team College Football Playoff. The season lasts all the way until Jan. 20, 2025 when a new champion will be crowned. The expanded playoff is likely to be dominated by SEC and Big Ten, but every year, a member of the ACC and Big 12 will receive a coveted top-four seed and a bye in Round 1.
Using my latest Preseason Top 25, here’s a projection breaking down how the 2024 College Football Playoff could unfold.
Who gets in? Who gets left out? Which Group of 5 program grabs the 12th-seed? Let’s take a look at the projected 2024 College Football Playoff Field
- Georgia (SEC champ)
- Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
- Florida State (ACC champ)
- Utah (Big 12 champ)
- Texas (at-large)
- Oregon (at-large)
- Alabama (at-large)
- Ole Miss (at-large)
- Michigan (at-large)
- Notre Dame (at-large)
- Missouri (at-large)
- Boise State (Mountain West champ, G5 representative)
Just missed: Penn State, Tennessee, Clemson, Memphis, Liberty
Remember folks, it’s not simply the 12 highest-ranked teams that make the field. The top-four seeds are determined by the highest-ranked conference champions. The highest-ranked Group of 5 winner is also guaranteed a spot, with the remaining seven seeds going to at-large teams.
I have Georgia, Ohio State, FSU and Utah winning their respective conferences. In this exercise, the SEC gets five spots in the field. That’s probably one too many, but maybe not. It’s certainly not outlandish, especially when you consider Tennessee was just on the outside looking in as the No. 12 team in my preseason Top 25 and LSU wasn’t even really in the conversation. The expanded playoff was made for a team like Penn State, but the Nittany Lions also get squeezed out despite ranking 11th overall.
I had Boise State just outside my Top 25 in the honorable mention category, but the G5 spot could come down to any number of teams including the Broncos, Memphis (AAC favorites), Liberty (C-USA favorites), Troy (Sun Belt favorites), App. State or others.
College Football Playoff Round 1
Reminder: The Round 1 games will be placed on campus sites of the highest-ranked seed. Two games will play Friday night Dec. 20, with two more matchups taking place the following day.
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Boise State
Winner: Texas
No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 Missouri
Winner: Oregon
No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 10 Notre Dame
Winner: Alabama
No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Michigan
Winner: Ole Miss
With this CFP projection, we get a couple of really quality matchups in Round 1. Oregon and Missouri could be a shootout between two high-powered offenses, while Alabama and Notre Dame could throw punches as two of the more physical teams in football. Ole Miss versus Michigan is a styles-make-fights showdown between strength (Rebels offense) on strength (Wolverines defense).
College Football Playoff Quarterfinals
The Quarterfinals games then revert back to the traditional New Year’s Six bowl games.
Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 31)
Projection: No. 4 Utah vs. No. 5 Texas
Winner: Texas
Peach Bowl (Jan. 1)
Projection: No. 3 Florida State vs. No. 6 Oregon
Winner: Oregon
Rose Bowl (Jan. 1)
Projection: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Alabama
Winner: Ohio State
Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1)
Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Ole Miss
Winner: Georgia
Georgia-Ole Miss is a repeat matchup from the regular season, but the other three games are fresh, fun and full of juicy potential storylines. Utah and FSU will have the benefit of a bye week and extra time to prepare but can they take down more talented teams in Texas and Oregon? Ohio State-Alabama? Yes, please.
College Football Playoff Semifinals
Orange Bowl (Jan. 9)
Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 5 Texas
Winner: Georgia
Cotton Bowl (Jan. 10)
Projection: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 6 Oregon
Winner: Ohio State
A bit chalky? A little. And this could be the third time that Ohio State and Oregon square off in the 2024-25 season, too. Still, these four programs project as the most talented teams in the sport this fall, and in a season that will be the longest of all-time, having the deepest rosters has never been more important. If this is how the season shakes out, I project a pair of rubber-match showdowns for a spot in the national championship.
National Championship
Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta (Jan. 20)
Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Winner: Georgia
A third national title in four years for Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs? It just might be in the cards. These two teams played an epic Sugar Bowl in 2022, so how we run it back again?