College Football Playoff Predictions: Oregon's win against Ohio State creates a shakeup at the top

As fans spilled onto the field at Oregon’s Autzen Stadium — and later Saturday at LSU’s Tiger Stadium — it became clear once again that a move to a 12-team College Football Playoff hasn’t dampened the enthusiasm for huge regular-season wins.

Oregon’s 32-31 win against Ohio State might be the most meaningful result so far this season; it certainly announced to the world that the Ducks belong in the national title conversation. Meanwhile, LSU won what felt like the first of many CFP elimination games by taking down Ole Miss in overtime. The Rebels aren’t out of the hunt for a playoff berth, but it does seem as if they’d have to run the table to make it. And the remaining Ole Miss schedule is not conducive to table-running.

Oregon ascends to new heights in this week’s Bracketology. LSU hasn’t found its way into the bracket yet, but the Tigers just need to keep winning. (Though they might have earned themselves a mulligan by beating Ole Miss.)

The Top Four Seeds

Remember, these four slots are reserved only for conference champions. So don’t freak out if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams at No. 1 and No. 2, then the rules don’t allow for another team from either of those leagues until No. 5. The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game.

1. Oregon (Big Ten champ)
The Ducks kept punching back Saturday against Ohio State, and they wound up with the biggest win of the Dan Lanning era. Oregon’s offensive and defensive lines looked quite comfortable playing against another elite roster, and quarterback Dillon Gabriel proved how valuable big-game experience is.

2. Texas (SEC champ)
The Longhorns didn’t play anywhere near their best game and beat Oklahoma by 31. Some of that is due to Oklahoma’s bad injury luck and offensive line issues, but a lot of it is Texas having one of the deepest, most dynamic rosters in the country. Georgia comes to Austin this week — and so does a Formula One race — so all eyes will be on the Longhorns for another game that should help determine who plays for the SEC title.

3. Clemson (ACC champ)
The Tigers needed a quarter-and-a-half to get rolling against Wake Forest, but they continue smashing everything in their path since the opening-day loss to Georgia. Next up is Virginia at home.

4. BYU (Big 12 champ)
It’s tough to decide who to place in this spot between the Cougars and fellow undefeated Big 12 team Iowa State. They may be on a collision course with one another, but the matchup wouldn’t come until the Big 12 title game in Arlington, Texas. BYU smashed Arizona on Saturday, and he Cougars’ remaining schedule (Oklahoma State, at UCF, at Utah, Kansas, at Arizona State, Houston) would have looked a lot more daunting in the preseason polls. In fact, Arizona State might be BYU’s most difficult remaining game. Iowa State, meanwhile, has a date in Ames with also-undefeated-in-Big 12-play Texas Tech on Nov. 2.

The At-Larges

These teams didn’t win their conference, but they’re in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 host first-round games on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 go on the road.

5. Ohio State
While the world keeps asking questions about Buckeyes coach Ryan Day against other elite teams, the Buckeyes can wind up with a pretty good draw if they keep winning — even if they wind up losing to Oregon again in the Big Ten title game. Still, the path isn’t entirely smooth. A visit to Penn State looms in three weeks.

6. Penn State
The Nittany Lions fell behind, came back, lost their lead and then dispatched USC in overtime. It was a little disturbing seeing Penn State give up so many big plays, but they remained calm and won a clunker that could have resulted in a much sadder flight/bus ride back to State College.

7. Miami
The Hurricanes spent the weekend recovering from their comeback win at Cal, and they return to action Saturday at Louisville. Before the season, the Louisville-Florida State back-to-back was considered Miami’s toughest ACC stretch. Now it might be the next two games against Duke and Georgia Tech.

8. Alabama
The Crimson Tide almost lost to South Carolina on Saturday. That’s not an exaggeration; the Gamecocks left a lot of points on the field. If Alabama plays the way it has the past two weeks when it goes to Tennessee this week, it probably will lose. This would be a good time to get back to being the program everyone feared for the better part of the past two decades.

9. Georgia
The Bulldogs allowed 31 points against Mississippi State on Saturday in a 10-point win. If they allow that many against Texas this week in Austin, they may not win. The Bulldogs might be able to lose at Texas and still make the CFP, but they would lose any margin for error.

10. Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish ran away from Stanford on Saturday, but if they want to stay in this bracket, they’ll need to survive a tricky two-week stretch that includes Georgia Tech in Atlanta (two miles from Tech’s campus at Merdedes-Benz Stadium) and Navy at Met-Life Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J.

11. Texas A&M
The Aggies had an open week to savor their annihilation of Missouri, and now they head to Starkville to face a getting-better-but-still-a-ways-away Mississippi State. After that is LSU, which might wind up replacing Texas A&M here if the Aggies can’t keep winning.

First (Power) Four Out: Iowa State, LSU, Kansas State, Tennessee

Group of Five representative

The rules don’t limit how many Group of 5 teams can make the tournament, but common sense suggests that most years only the highest ranked Group of 5 champion will make the bracket, and it will make it as the No. 12 seed because it will be ranked lower than 12.

12. Navy
The Midshipmen had this week off, but they return to action Saturday against Charlotte and cutoff shirt-clad coach Biff Poggi. Navy can’t get caught looking ahead at Notre Dame on Oct. 19. The 49ers are 2-0 in American Athletic Conference play, and they’re potentially dangerous if the Midshipmen are worried about the Fighting Irish.

Group of 5 Contenders: Army, UNLV, Boise State, Liberty

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Navy at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Miami
Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 6 Penn State
Winner faces No. 3 Clemson in the Peach Bowl

Remaining Bubble Teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subsets: Potential at-larges and potential win-and-in conference champs. It should go without saying that a potential at-large also is a potential conference champ. In the Big Ten and the SEC, it’s likely both teams that make the conference title game will make the CFP. That isn’t a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and it’s possible one or two teams that make those games will only have a puncher’s chance that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential At-Larges

ACC: Pittsburgh, SMU
Big Ten: Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska
Big 12: Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech
SEC: LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee

Potential Win-And-In conference champs: 

ACC: Virginia
Big Ten: None
Big 12: Colorado, Arizona State
SEC: None

Group of Five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 league have a chance to be the highest ranked Group of 5 champ.

American Athletic Conference: Army, Memphis, Tulane, North Texas
Conference USA: Liberty
MAC: Eastern Michigan, Toledo
Mountain West: Boise State, UNLV
Sun Belt: Louisiana-Monroe, Coastal Carolina, Texas State