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College Football Playoff Prediction: Projecting the 12-team bracket in 2025

ARI WASSERMAN headshotby:Ari Wasserman•02/05/25•

AriWasserman

cfp 26 afi

Once the sting of the reality that the college football season had come to an end, Andy and I took a big swing in trying to rank next year’s Top 25. We understood that rosters haven’t yet fully settled, but it’s the college football offseason and what else are we supposed to do but try to look ahead?

The next logical step is to use those rankings to try and visualize what next year’s 12-team College Football Playoff bracket may look like. While it’s certainly understandable to think it’s insane to predict the results of next year’s games, it’s a fun exercise that allows us to dig into schedules and project which teams will have the best personnel.

The way, way, way, way, way too early Top 25 was an average of our rankings. For this exercise, I did lean on mine, though there is a difference between where you’d rank teams in the preseason and trying to project how things will look at the end.

There are some similarities to Andy’s bracket — yes, we think Ohio State and Texas are going to be good — but there are also some differences. Here’s my swing at it:

First Round 

No. 12 Boise State vs. No. 5 Oregon 
It was difficult to try and choose between Ohio State and Oregon for next year’s Big Ten champion. If you want to flip them in the seeding in your bracket, go for it. I went with Ohio State, but that doesn’t mean Oregon shouldn’t be very good next year. The Ducks lost a ton of talent from the team that went undefeated and won the Big Ten in 2024. They’ll be relying on a new quarterback, presumably Dante Moore. But Oregon also returns receiver Evan Stewart and big-time defender Matayo Uiagalelei and had some big-time additions, like five-star freshman receiver Dakorian Moore and running back transfer Makhi Hughes. The Ducks are going to be really explosive again.

Another familiar face checks in at No. 12 in Boise State. Yes, the Broncos lost all-world running back Ashton Jeanty, but it returns four of its starting offensive linemen and quarterback Maddux Madsen. Other key returnees are tight end Matt Lauter defensive tackle Braxton Fely, defensive end Jayden Virgin, linebacker Marco Notarainni and safeties Ty Benefield and Zion Washington. Some thought Boise State was just a team carried by Jeanty, but that wasn’t the case. Though they’ll have to find a new identity, Boise State is still arguably the most talented team in the Group of 5. 

Who wins the matchup in the first round? Oregon. The Ducks will just have too many good players.

No. 11 South Carolina vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
It took a leap of faith to have South Carolina in the CFP. It’s not that I don’t think the Gamecocks are going to be very good. There is no question quarterback LaNorris Sellers is one of the best in the country. And one of the best overall players in college football is South Carolina edge Dylan Stewart. There’s also a lot to like about left tackle Josiah Stewart. But if you look at South Carolina’s schedule in the second half of the season, six of their final seven games are against LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Clemson. That’s nasty. Even a really good team may not make it through that. I’m going to roll the dice on Shane Beamer picking up some big wins and only losing two, which would assuredly put them in this spot.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, returns a ton of talent from last year’s team that advanced to the national title game. It has to replace quarterback Riley Leonard, sure, but the Irish return running back Jeremiyah Love, the best offensive line in the sport and a really solid defense. I’m also really high on receiver Jaden Greathouse emerging as a big star next year.

I’m going to go with South Carolina in this spot, though. If the Gamecocks prove me right and handle that schedule, they will be battle-tested and ready to ride once they get to the postseason — an opportunity this year’s team didn’t get despite being one of the hottest squads in the nation down the stretch.

No. 10 Illinois vs. No. 7 Georgia
Indiana proved last year that a team with an advantageous schedule can come out of nowhere and grab a CFP spot. The tricky part? Trying to pick next year’s Cinderella in February. That puts a lot of pressure on Bret Bielema and Illinois, a team that returns basically everyone from a 10-win squad, but may or may not know how to win with expectations. If Illinois actually traverses its Big Ten schedule — which doesn’t feature Oregon, Penn State or Michigan — they’ll be rewarded with a game against a traditional SEC power.

Which brings us to Georgia. The Bulldogs finished 11-3 last year, but everyone watching knew those weren’t the same old Bulldogs that won two national titles under Kirby Smart. That doesn’t mean Georgia can’t get back to that place. It’ll have to count on quarterback Gunner Stockton being that dude. Don’t forget, Georgia is still one of the few programs that routinely signs top-5 recruiting classes out of high school, so it’s still going to be oozing with talent. 

Illinois is going to have an awesome run. It’s just not fair to expect Bielema to have the Fighting Illini on Georgia’s level at this point in the Illini’s build. 

No. 8 Penn State vs. No. 9 Alabama
Penn State is getting love by pundits. Some even have the Nittany Lions ranked No. 1 overall heading into next season. That’s what happens when you bring back quarterback Drew Allar, both elite-level running backs and awesome defender Dani Dennis-Sutton. But are we in the position to project that James Franklin is going to win the Big Ten and beat the best teams on Penn State’s schedule next year? It could happen, but I’m not projecting that until he starts winning games against teams with equitable talent. But Penn State being who it always has been gets them back into the CFP.

Unlike last year, Franklin is going to be tested in the first round of the CFP against a team that isn’t going to be overwhelmed by Penn State’s talent. Some people have left Alabama for dead after an underwhelming first year under Kalen DeBoer, but I’ve got a sneaky suspicion the Crimson Tide got losing out of their systems heading into the offseason. Now DeBoer has a complete handle of what his team is and he has options at quarterback, including five-star true freshman Keelon Russell.

I’m sorry to do this to you, James, but I think next year is more of the same. Alabama wins.

Quarterfinals

No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Arizona State in the Cotton Bowl
The seeding isn’t fixed and ASU gets its second consecutive bye. Maybe that’s too much faith in Kenny Dillingham, but the Sun Devils return quarterback Sam Leavitt, receiver Jordyn Tyson and a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Picking the winner of the Big 12 is hard enough with two weeks remaining in the regular season, let alone in early February. But ASU has the goods to make a return trip.

We’ll get an old-world Pac-12 matchup in Dallas, but Oregon will win in the quarterfinals this time around. Oregon is going to feel pretty good about not getting jobbed in seeding a year from now.

No. 11 South Carolina vs. No. 3 Clemson in the Orange Bowl
It’s very likely that at the end of 2025, Sellers is a Heisman Trophy finalist (or winner) and Stewart is the best defender in college football. In this scenario, South Carolina is just mashing people. But despite feeling good about itself — and beating Clemson to cap off the regular season — there is only so much battling a team can do before it eventually trips.

Dabo Swinney‘s team is going to be the best Clemson team we’ve seen in a few years. Quarterback Cade Klubnik is going to take a big step forward and the Tigers will be playing South Carolina at the perfect time to advance to the CFP semis.

No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl
Ohio State isn’t going to be as deep and talented as it was last year, but that doesn’t mean the Buckeyes are going to be weak. They possess the best offensive player in the country in Jeremiah Smith and the best defensive player in Caleb Downs. Though Ohio State will be more beatable than it was during its 2024 run — especially with all the coaches and players it has to replace — it may still be further along next year than Georgia. A lot is going to be determined by who has the better quarterback, Stockton or whoever lines up under center for Ohio State. Because it’s hard to predict that right now, I’ll just go with the team with game-breakers on both sides of the ball. Ohio State advances.

No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Texas in the Sugar Bowl
This is just one of those matchups that seems inevitable, right? Texas and Alabama are working on a nice little rivalry the last few years and it continues into the 2025 postseason. But this is Texas’ time to shine. Arch Manning becomes one of the faces of the sport and the Longhorns feature perhaps the most talented roster in college football, top to bottom. Longhorns roll into the CFP semis.

Semifinals

No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas in the Fiesta Bowl
Oregon will spend the entire offseason feeling as if it wasn’t good enough because it had the unfortunate path of playing Ohio State at the worst possible time. Lanning’s star is rising in college football and the Ducks will continue to ascend, but they’ll once again meet the most talented team in college football in the semifinals and lose. Oregon will eventually break through, but it’s Texas time to break through first.

No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 2 Ohio State in the Peach Bowl
Clemson has built its way back up to being a team that is playing in these high-leverage moments. And while it does seem like Swinney is more open to new ways to assemble his roster, Ohio State will have too much firepower for the Tigers to overcome. Clemson, though, is still a big-time brand in college football and it has every opportunity to get its roster where it needs to be in the future as long as Swinney goes all-in on the portal.

National championship game

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Texas in the national title game
Ohio State played a closely-contested game with Texas in the Cotton Bowl this past year. But next year, Texas will likely have more good players flying all over the field than the Buckeyes. Texas had a chance to beat Ohio State last month. It won’t miss its opportunity the next time around and Sarkisian joins Day as an active head coach with a national title ring.