College Football Playoff prediction: Updated 12-team CFP bracket projection

After 14 weeks of games, Championship Week is here. That means the final College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed on Sunday – and the final bracket will be set.

As teams vie for conference championships, spots in the 12-team CFP are on the line. The first bid was secured Friday night when Boise State defeated UNLV in the Mountain West Championship. The rest of the College Football Playoff picture started to come into focus Saturday, and it started with the Big 12 Championship. Arizona State punched its ticket with a resounding victory over Iowa State.

After the Big 12 went final, the SEC Championship was up next between Georgia and Texas. After Carson Beck’s injury, the Bulldogs took a lead in the third quarter, and the game later headed to overtime. Trevor Etienne punched in the game-winning touchdown to seal the 22-19 victory at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. As a result, they’re likely going to get a first-round bye in the bracket.

The ACC and Big Ten wrapped things up on Saturday night. In Indianapolis, Oregon and Penn State squared off in a shootout, and the Ducks – led by Dillon Gabriel and Tez Johnson – remained undefeated to secure the No. 1 seed.

Meanwhile, in Charlotte, Clemson had a 24-7 halftime lead over SMU before the Mustangs got back into it and tied it up with 16 seconds left. After a big kickoff return, the Tigers got the game-winning field goal to steal a bid with a 34-31 victory. For SMU, the hopes of a first-round bye were dashed, and the Mustangs are heading to the bubble.

Now, all eyes are on the final rankings, which come out Sunday. In the new bracket, the five highest-ranked conference champions make the field, with the next seven highest-ranked teams round things out. First-round games will be at campus sites, and the four highest-seeded teams will receive byes. Here are the updated projections ahead of the reveal.

First-round byes

No. 1 seed – Oregon (Big Ten champion)

In its first year in the league, Oregon won the Big Ten. The Ducks went into Lucas Oil Stadium and defeated Penn State, cementing their spot as the No. 1 team in the country.

Oregon continues to impress under Dan Lanning’s leadership and enter the College Football Playoff as the only undefeated team remaining in the FBS. A first-round bye is in the cards, meaning the Ducks will play their first CFP game in the quarterfinals.

No. 2 seed – Georgia (SEC champion)

Despite losing Carson Beck to injury just before halftime, Georgia did just enough to defeat Texas in the SEC Championship and clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff. It took overtime to do it, but Gunner Stockton and the offense held on after a second-half surge – and Beck gave the game-winning hand-off to Trevor Etienne to seal the victory.

UGA ranked ahead of SMU and Arizona State in the penultimate rankings, and it will likely stay there after Saturday’s win. As a result, the Bulldogs are the No. 2 seed in the latest bracket projection.

No. 3 seed – Boise State (Mountain West champion)

Led by Ashton Jeanty, Boise State became the first team to secure a berth in the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket Friday night. The Broncos jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead before coming away with the 21-7 victory over UNLV in the Mountain West Championship to become one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.

Boise State entered Saturday in strong position for a first-round bye, and Clemson’s victory over SMU helped seal that fate. The Broncos are in line for the No. 3 seed as the third-highest ranked conference champion.

No. 4 seed – Arizona State (Big 12 champion)

Cam Skattebo had a monster day and the Arizona State defense made some huge plays in the second half en route to the 45-19 victory over Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship. That sealed a spot in the College Football Playoff, and the Sun Devils will now wait to see who and where they’ll play.

But because the Sun Devils will likely rank ahead of Clemson, they will be one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. As a result, Kenny Dillingham and Co. would earn a first-round bye amid their hot streak.

First-round matchups (campus sites)

No. 12 seed Clemson (ACC champion) at No. 5 seed Notre Dame

Clemson had a chance to steal a College Football Playoff bid during Saturday’s ACC Championship, and the Tigers did just that in thrilling fashion with a walk-off field goal. As one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, they’ll be in the field – although they won’t get a bye.

A 10-game winning streak has Notre Dame in strong position to host a first-round College Football Playoff game. The Fighting Irish got a rivalry victory over USC last time out to complete the 11-1 season and will now await Sunday’s final rankings to see if the first round will officially come to South Bend.

No. 9 seed Tennessee at No. 8 seed Penn State

A Rivalry Week victory over Vanderbilt helped Tennessee reach the 10-win threshold and keep the Vols right in the thick of the College Football Playoff race. Although they’re not heading to Atlanta for the SEC title game, they’re looking at a potential first-round game based on the penultimate rankings reveal.

In its first Big Ten Championship since 2016, Penn State rallied back to keep things close until the final minutes. However, the Nittany Lions came up short against top-ranked Oregon, but still could be in a position to host a first-round game in Happy Valley.

No. 10 seed Indiana at No. 7 seed Ohio State

Questions swirled about Indiana’s strength of schedule after the loss to Ohio State, but a 66-0 win over Purdue showed how dominant the Hoosiers can be. While they’re not going to Lucas Oil Stadium for the Big Ten Championship, they’re hanging around the College Football Playoff conversation after the penultimate rankings reveal.

Last week’s loss to Michigan was quite a shock for Ohio State, which missed out on the Big Ten Championship as a result. The Buckeyes are still afloat in the College Football Playoff race, and still in contention to host a game entering Sunday’s final rankings reveal.

No. 11 seed SMU at No. 6 seed Texas

SMU fell at the last second of Saturday’s ACC Championship, but the Mustangs fought back to keep it close late. As a result, they appear in position to stay in the field, which means Alabama could wind up on the outside looking in after entering Championship Week on the bubble.

Texas saw its SEC Championship halftime lead evaporate as Georgia came away with the victory in Atlanta. The Longhorns are now likely to fall in the final College Football Playoff rankings, but appear in line to host a game.

First four out

Alabama
Miami
Ole Miss
South Carolina