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ESPN releases second College Football Playoff rankings prediction with new No. 1

IMG_6598by:Nick Kosko11/05/23

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ESPN CFP rankings prediction
(On3)

ESPN released its second College Football Playoff rankings predictions after Week 10 of the regular season and there was a big change.

There is a new No. 1, according to ESPN’s predictions. And well, that shouldn’t be a surprise if you watched the full slate of ranked games on Saturday.

Let’s dive into the latest ESPN College Football Playoff predictions from Heather Dinich.

1. Georgia

(Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)

Georgia is the new predicted No. 1 team in the country after a win over Missouri. You might be thinking, huh? But Missouri was firmly in the race for the SEC at 7-1.

But it was a controlling victory for the Bulldogs. It’s still pretty simple. Georgia winning out and going 13-0 is likely going to put them at No. 1 overall at the end of the season.

2. Ohio State

(Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Ohio State had a great resume going into last weekend, but an up and down victory against Rutgers didn’t inspire No. 1 confidence. Plus Notre Dame’s loss makes that win less desirable.

Still, the Buckeyes are undefeated, have one of the best defenses in the country and have a Heisman worthy wide receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr. Win out and you’re in. The path is simple.

3. Michigan

(Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK)

The same goes for Michigan. The easiest thing to do, which is funny to say out loud, is to win out and be undefeated Big Ten champions.

So the same path as Ohio State and both teams are neck and neck in all of the rankings. Makes sense. Let’s hope college football is treated to Jim Harbaugh vs. Ryan Day in Ann Arbor on the final weekend with both teams undefeated.

4. Florida State

(Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

Florida State, wait, stop if you’ve heard this before, is undefeated and has a clear path to the College Football Playoff. Win out with a conference title and you’re in.

That’s pretty much it for the Seminoles. A loss could spell doom for the team trying to get to the playoff for the first time since 2014 (feels like forever ago doesn’t it?). But the schedule sets up for 12-0 and a potential matchup with Louisville for the conference crown.

5. Washington

(Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports)

The Huskies are, wait for it, undefeated. The team has a solid resume with its biggest win coming over Oregon. That could be a Pac-12 title game rematch as well.

But like Florida State, one loss could kill the Huskies’ playoff hopes. The good news? Michael Penix Jr. is one of the Heisman Trophy favorites so as long as he’s firing, Washington is in good shape.

6. Oregon

(Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports)

Oregon is like a runaway freight train right now. You almost forget that this team lost to Washington by a close margin. However, Oregon has no margin for error.

No two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff. So a loss anywhere for Oregon eliminates the Ducks from this conversation. What’s funny is, a one loss Oregon team as Pac-12 champions might look better than a one-loss Washington championship team.

7. Texas

(Ricardo B. Brazziell/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Texas is also in that one loss boat but you gotta hand it to the Longhorns right now. Maalik Murphy has filled in nicely for Quinn Ewers at quarterback, but objectively speaking, this team is much better with Ewers under center.

Even still, Texas is squarely the Big 12 favorite moving forward with Oklahoma losing its second game. But again, no margin for error for this one loss team.

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8. Alabama

Nov 4, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) caries the ball against the LSU Tigers during the second half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

Alabama was an afterthought after the Crimson Tide lost to Texas earlier this year. Well since then, Alabama hasn’t lost and is undefeated in SEC play. Barring disaster, Alabama will go back to the conference title game.

But Alabama knows what it has to do to return to the playoff under Nick Saban. The team has to win out and needs a win over Georgia on the other side of the conference. Doing so would almost assuredly get the Crimson Tide in. But it gets dicey if other teams run the table.

9. Ole Miss

(Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports)

The Rebels are a fascinating case for the College Football Playoff this year. Hypothetically, an 11-1 Ole Miss team could have a case if Alabama wins out and goes 12-1 as SEC Champions.

But, Georgia would (likely) be 12-1 and trump Ole Miss. So Ole Miss should root for Texas to win out to make Alabama’s lone loss look better. And then, you know, total chaos out there. There’s an unlikely path, but man it’s unlikely for Ole Miss, unless the Crimson Tide lose two SEC games and it puts the Rebels into the SEC title game at 11-1. Then, there’s a chance.

10. Penn State

(Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)

Penn State needs to win out to have any sort of chance. Going 11-1 and forcing a three-way tiebreaker, that would involve Michigan beating Ohio State, is a way to get to the Big Ten title game.

To do that, Penn State’s Big Ten West opponents combined conference record would have to be the best over Ohio State and Michigan’s Big Ten West opponents. Right now, Penn State leads in that category. That seems to be the clearest path for the Nittany Lions to get to the playoff: winning the Big Ten.

11. Oklahoma

(SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Oklahoma is going to drop and the Sooners will still be on the cusp of the top 10, but it’s over now. A Big 12 title isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but the playoff is with two losses.

Unless Oklahoma finishes 11-2 as Big 12 champions and gets a lot of chaos around the country, the final four isn’t happening. A shame for Brent Venables and company.

12. Louisville

(Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports)

So what kind of a case can we make for Louisville going into the final stretch of the season? Well simply, the Cardinals have to go 12-1 and beat Florida State in the ACC Championship to have a chance.

The strength of schedule isn’t great, plus the upset loss to Pitt really stings. But, Louisville will have a chance at that point, as long as the team gets some help from others. What a first year for Jeff Brohm.

There are three games remaining in the regular season so the College Football Playoff rankings are really heating up. Man, just wait until conference championship weekend once the selections come down to the wire.