College Football Playoff predictions: Alabama and Ole Miss losses shake up the bracket

November loves to render our most fervent arguments meaningless. We spent most of last week figuring out whether the College Football Playoff selection committee would pack the bracket with two-loss SEC teams at the expense of a one-loss Indiana.

Indiana took that lone loss at Ohio State on Saturday. Still, the committee won’t have to worry about as many two-loss SEC teams because Florida beat Ole Miss on Saturday afternoon and Oklahoma stunned Alabama on Saturday night. With the Rebels and the Crimson Tide each taking their third loss — and Texas A&M taking its third loss at Auburn — the at-large spots loosened up.

Now the question is whether the ACC can get two teams into the bracket. Also, is there any chance rivalry week brings enough chaos that one of the three-loss teams gets considered for an at-large?

If next weekend is anything like this past weekend, the bracket could be considerably messier next week.

Top Four Seeds

Remember, these four slots are reserved only for conference champions. So don’t freak out if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams at No. 1 and No. 2, then the rules don’t allow for another team from either of those leagues until No. 5. The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game.

1. Oregon (Big Ten champ)
The Ducks got to enjoy the weekend and watch the chaos from afar. Now comes a visit from Washington, which has won three in a row against the Ducks but hasn’t anywhere near as good a season this year as it did last year. Striking back in the rivalry matters for Oregon, so expect the Ducks to be on high alert.

2. Georgia (SEC champ)
The Bulldogs are in the SEC title game thanks to Alabama’s loss at Oklahoma. The Texas-Texas A&M game will determine their opponent. Georgia beat Texas handily in Austin, but we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Georgia needs to worry about Georgia Tech next week because if this week taught us anything, it’s that nothing is ever easy.

3. Miami (ACC champ)
The Hurricanes found themselves in a fight with Wake Forest for three quarters, but then they hung a 22-0 fourth quarter on the Demon Deacons. Miami needs to win this week at Syracuse to make the ACC title game. That would be a win-and-in scenario against SMU, but it’s also possible that chaos elsewhere has opened up the possibility of an 11-2 ACC runner-up earning an at-large bid.

4. Boise State (Mountain West champ)
Boise State is in a strange place. The Broncos struggled with Wyoming, and star back Ashton Jeanty was banged up near the end of the game. But Boise State is done with Mountain West play and has locked in a spot in the conference title game. If the Broncos beat Oregon State in a non-conference game and then win the Mountain West title game, they’ll likely wind up the fourth-highest-ranked conference champ because it will be difficult for the Big 12 champ to overtake them. But if Boise State loses next week, it could drop in the rankings and wind up the No. 12 seed as the Mountain West champ. Also, Colorado State‘s loss at Fresno State on Saturday means that if UNLV beats Nevada, the Rebels will get another shot at Boise State because UNLV is ranked by the CFP committee and Colorado State is not. The first meeting between the Rebels and Broncos was close, so Boise State isn’t out of the woods yet.

The At-Larges

These teams didn’t win their conference, but they’re in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 host first-round games on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 go on the road.

5. Ohio State
The Buckeyes gave up an opening drive touchdown and then put the clamps on Indiana Saturday. Ohio State probably is the nation’s most talented team, and it wouldn’t be shocking if the Buckeyes beat Oregon in the Big Ten title game and ascend to the No. 1 seed. But first things first. There is the little matter of a three-game losing streak to Michigan. Ohio State will spend this week trying to snap that with extreme prejudice.

6. Penn State
James Franklin faked a punt and went for two more fourth downs to salt away a one-point win at Minnesota. That’s probably how he’ll have to call the game to win in the CFP. The Nittany Lions will know before they kick off at Maryland whether Ohio State has locked up the other spot in the Big Ten title game.

7. Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish annihilated Army on Saturday. Beat USC and Notre Dame will be in and hosting a playoff game. The best Notre Dame can do because of the format rules is the No. 5 seed. If they can wind up hosting a game, that’s probably a good benchmark for a successful Notre Dame season in this era.

8. Texas
This is a prediction that Texas beats Texas A&M but loses the rematch against Georgia in the SEC title game. It’s a more interesting question if Texas A&M beats Texas but then loses to Georgia. It’s quite possible the Longhorns would still get an at-large bid while the Aggies would be left out. That would be the ultimate torture for Texas A&M, but I imagine the Longhorns would prefer to just keep winning. If they win their next two, they’ll be the No. 2 seed.

9. Tennessee
Fans at Neyland Stadium did the Gator chomp after Florida beat Ole Miss and opened an at-large spot for the Volunteers. Little did anyone know Oklahoma would throttle Alabama and open up another — while devaluing the Vols’ best win. The Indiana-Tennessee argument that raged last week probably is moot because they’re both probably in, and they’re both probably going on the road.

10. Indiana
The chaos in the SEC probably means the Hoosiers don’t need to worry as long as they beat Purdue. The committee might have played the who-have-you-beaten game in comparison to a two-loss SEC team. That probably isn’t the case for a three-loss SEC team.

11. SMU
SMU could just beat Miami in the ACC title game and get in, but the Mustangs would have a strong case for an at-large spot if they lose a close game against the Hurricanes in Charlotte.

First (Power) Four Out: Alabama, Clemson, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

The No. 12 seed

The rules say the four highest-ranked conference champs get the top four seeds. The five highest-ranked conference champs get automatic bids. The rules do not differentiate power conferences from Group of 5 leagues. This doesn’t have to be a Group of 5 team, and if Boise State keeps winning, it’s quite probable the Broncos will be ranked higher than the Big 12 champ.

12. Arizona State (Big 12 champ)
I have no idea who is winning the Big 12. I have no idea who is playing in the Big 12 title game. Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State all have two conference losses. If all four lose next week, it’s possible Baylor and Texas Tech could play for the conference title. Arizona State is the hottest team in the league. (Other than Kansas, which has been mathematically eliminated.) Arizona, the Sun Devils’ Territorial Cup rival, has lost six of its last seven. So I feel safest about Arizona State winning next week and thus reaching the title game. But I can’t foresee any of these teams jumping Boise State if the Broncos keep winning. So the Big 12 champ lands here.

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Texas
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl

Remaining Bubble Teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subsets: Potential at-larges and potential win-and-in conference champs. It should go without saying that a potential at-large also is a potential conference champ. In the Big Ten and the SEC, it’s likely both teams that make the conference title game will make the CFP. That isn’t a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and one or two teams that make those games may only have a puncher’s chance that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential At-Larges

ACC: Clemson
Big Ten: None
Big 12: None
SEC: Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Potential Win-And-In Conference Champs: 

ACC: None
Big Ten: None
Big 12: BYU, Colorado, Iowa State,
SEC: Texas A&M

Group of Five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 league have a chance to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 champ.

American Athletic Conference: Army, Tulane
Conference USA: None
MAC: None
Mountain West: UNLV
Sun Belt: None