College Football Playoff Predictions: Bracketology shake up after FSU loss

We hadn’t planned to publish another College Football Playoff Bracketology column until after week one, but two things happened.

• Georgia Tech beat Florida State in Dublin, handing a conference loss to the team I had winning the ACC title in my preseason Bracketology column. This was the first of many reminders that whatever we decided over the past nine months is irrelevant once the games actually start.

• ESPN, the company paying hundreds of millions of dollars a year to broadcast the College Football Playoff, incorrectly explained how the seeding process works on the halftime show of the first college football game of the season. We’ll handle the Florida State issue in the projection, but let’s tackle this issue now.

During the halftime show, analyst Sam Acho said the highest ranked Group of 5 champ would automatically receive the No. 12 seed in the College Football Playoff. That isn’t true at all, but that’s what millions of people — many of them casuals who don’t spent offseason hours listening to college football podcasts — heard from the network that a not-insignificant chunk of those people think is conspiring to rig the seedings in the first place. (ESPN isn’t doing that, but this doesn’t help dispel the myth.) Neither Acho nor host Matt Barrie ever corrected this misinformation, probably leaving fans more confused.

Here’s how this part of the seeding actually works:

The five highest ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP. These automatic bids are not tied to any particular conference. We assume four automatic bids will go to the champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC because that is how the College Football Playoff rankings have shaken out most of the time since the selection committee began ranking teams in 2014. We also assume the highest ranked champ among the other five leagues will be seeded No. 12 because in most years such a team has not finished ranked in the top 12.

Notice I said “most.” American Athletic Conference champ Cincinnati finished ranked No. 4 in 2021. American champ UCF finished No. 8 in 2018. Both those schools have since moved to the Big 12, but if this year’s American champ finished No. 4, it would be seeded No. 4 or better. (If two of the top three came from the same conference, only one of those would be seeded in the top four and the No. 4 team would be the No. 3 seed.) 

Also, it’s possible — not likely, but possible — the champs of two Group of 5 leagues might finish ranked higher than the champion of one of the four leagues we consider the power conferences. Those two Group of 5 champs would receive automatic bids. The lowest ranked power conference champ would get in only if all of them were ranked in the top 12 and it received an at-large bid.

Here’s a possible — though, as stated earlier, unlikely — scenario. Let’s say Boise State goes 13-0 and wins the Mountain West. And let’s say Oregon, one of the teams Boise State would have to beat to go 13-0, wins the Big Ten. Now let’s also say USF wins the American. And let’s say Alabama or Miami, two of the teams USF would have to beat to go 13-0, wins either the SEC or ACC. Boise State and USF would be ranked in the top four and probably would be ranked higher than a fellow conference champ they beat head-to-head. Now let’s say Oregon, Alabama and Miami all finish ranked in the top 12 and the Big 12 champ is a three-loss team that pulls a shocking upset in the conference title game. If that Big 12 team wasn’t ranked in the top 12 in this scenario, it wouldn’t make the CFP because all the automatic bids would have been taken.

This is obviously far-fetched, but it is possible. No conference is guaranteed an automatic bid, even if history tells us four of them will get auto bids most years.

Now, let’s project the bracket following Georgia Tech’s 24-21 win against Florida State in Dublin. I explained most of these choices last week, and besides SMU — which won 29-24 at Nevada — no one else on this list played this week. So click last week’s column for explanations of everyone except the ACC champ.

The Top Four Seeds

Remember, these four slots are reserved only for conference champions. So don’t freak out if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams at No. 1 and No. 2, then the rules don’t allow for another team from either of those leagues until No. 5. The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game.

1. Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
2. Georgia (SEC champ)
3. Kansas State (Big 12 champ): Didn’t I have projected ACC champ Florida State here last week? I did. But keep reading, because predicting three and four also is about predicting where the champions of each league ultimately will be ranked. And the Big 12 champ may wind up with a better record than my projected ACC champ.

4. Georgia Tech (ACC champ): Am I copping out by simply inserting the team that beat Florida State as the eventual ACC champ? Maybe, but Georgia Tech whipped Florida State up front in a way that suggests the Yellow Jackets can play with almost anyone on their schedule.

The problem is that schedule is still very hard. Georgia Tech drew the toughest ACC schedule (Florida State, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Miami, N.C. State) and has two of the toughest non-conference opponents of anyone in the league (Notre Dame, Georgia). But remember, the Yellow Jackets don’t have to beat Georgia to make the College Football Playoff. They just have to win the ACC. But let’s say they lose to Notre Dame and Georgia and go 7-1 in ACC play before winning the conference title game. That would make them 10-3 and likely would put them here. Unless someone like Boise State, USF or Miami (Ohio) ran the table. Then one of them might wind up here.

I also feel like we should reward Georgia Tech for the biggest win of the season (so far). Preseason predictions are guesses, but when we get actual results, we probably should use them. This also means this could look dramatically different next week.

The At-Larges

These teams didn’t win their conference, but they’re in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 host first-round games on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 go on the road.

5. Alabama
6. Oregon
7. Texas
8. Ole Miss
9. Michigan 
10. Notre Dame
11. Tennessee

First (Power) Four Out: Penn State, Miami, Missouri, Utah

Group of Five representative

The rules don’t limit how many Group of 5 teams can make the tournament, but common sense suggests that most years only the highest ranked Group of 5 champion will make the bracket, and it will make it as the No. 12 seed because it will be ranked lower than 12.

12. Boise State

Group of 5 Contenders: USF, Appalachian State

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Michigan at No. 8 Ole Miss
Winner faces No. 1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Alabama
Winner faces No. 4 Georgia Tech in the Peach Bowl

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Oregon
Winner faces No. 3 Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl

Remaining Bubble Teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subsets: Potential at-larges and potential win-and-in conference champs. It should go without saying that a potential at-large also is a potential conference champ. In the Big Ten and the SEC, it’s likely both teams that make the conference title game will make the CFP. That isn’t a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and it’s possible one or two teams that make those games will only have a puncher’s chance that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential At-Larges

ACC: Miami, Clemson, N.C. State, Louisville, Florida State (certainly not dead yet in this system)
Big Ten:  Penn State, Iowa
Big 12: Utah, Oklahoma State, Arizona
SEC: LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma

Potential Win-And-In conference champs: 

ACC: Virginia Tech
Big Ten: None
Big 12: West Virginia, UCF, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas

SEC: None

Group of Five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 league have a chance to be the highest ranked Group of 5 champ.

American Athletic Conference: UTSA, Memphis, USF, Tulane
Conference USA: Liberty
MAC: Miami (Ohio), Toledo, Northern Illinois
Mountain West: UNLV, San Diego State, Fresno State
Sun Belt: Appalachian State, James Madison, Coastal Carolina