College Football Playoff predictions: Texas a top seed, new Big 12 winner in braketology

Georgia’s slog of a win at Kentucky proved once again why we shouldn’t make any assumptions about large groups of 18- to 22-year-olds. I spent last week wondering whether Kentucky would show a pulse after getting throttled by South Carolina, and the Wildcats nearly beat the Bulldogs.

The same goes for our preseason assumptions. I’m trying to use the results we already have to project what will happen at the end of the season, but the truth is we still don’t have much data. So some of these projections still contain some preseason assumptions.

When interesting data comes along, I’ll use it. And Georgia looking mortal is interesting data. Texas also has played on the road against a team with elite defensive line talent (Michigan on Sept. 7) and didn’t look mortal at all. The Longhorns also have an easier schedule than the Bulldogs. So Texas gets bumped up, and Georgia gets moved down.

Of course, if the Bulldogs go to Tuscaloosa and win on Sept. 28, then the teams could get shuffled again.

The Top Four Seeds

Remember, these four slots are reserved only for conference champions. So don’t freak out if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams at No. 1 and No. 2, then the rules don’t allow for another team from either of those leagues until No. 5. The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game.

1. Ohio State (Big Ten champ): The Buckeyes were off this week and return to action Saturday against Marshall.

2. Texas (SEC champ): Two SEC teams have blown out Big Ten teams on the road and won their other non-conference games so far. The Texas win at Michigan in week two probably is more impressive than the Alabama win at Wisconsin in week three. The drama the Longhorns faced in their 56-7 win against UTSA was the injury to starting quarterback Quinn Ewers. After Ewers left with an abdominal strain, Arch Manning entered and completed 9 of 12 passes for 223 yards and four touchdowns and also ran for a 67-yard TD. Yes, Arch-Mania has begun. But Ewers probably will be back, and all this means is Texas has two excellent options at QB.

3. Miami (ACC champ): The Hurricanes demolished Ball State 62-0 on Saturday. They face a tricky non-conference game at USF next week before they can begin chasing the ACC title in earnest.

4. Kansas State (Big 12 champ): I’m sorry that I abdicated my duties as the driver of the Avery Johnson bandwagon for a week. Johnson improved as the game went on in a 31-7 win against Arizona on Friday, and by game’s end the Wildcats were using him on the ground the way we thought they would all along. That Arizona win doesn’t count in the Big 12 standings — it was previously scheduled as a non-conference game and it was just easier to keep it that way when Arizona joined the Big 12 — but offers a lot of confidence that Kansas State can win the league. This being the Big 12, those challenges will continue. The Wildcats face BYU this week and then host Oklahoma State on Sept. 28.

The At-Larges

These teams didn’t win their conference, but they’re in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 host first-round games on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 go on the road.

5. Alabama: With a fully healthy offensive line, the Crimson Tide looked dominant again. Wisconsin was out of its league in a 42-10 Alabama win. Alabama’s next opponent won’t be out of its league.

6. Georgia: That next Alabama opponent is the Bulldogs, who visit Tuscaloosa on Sept. 28 and who barely escaped Kentucky with a 13-12 win. The Wildcats exposed some of Georgia’s flaws. Those will need to be buttoned up before the Bulldogs face the Crimson Tide.

7. Tennessee: The Volunteers led Kent State 37-0 at the end of the first quarter and 65-0 at halftime. It won’t be so easy at Oklahoma next week, but if the Vols are clicking, they could collect a huge win.

8. Ole Miss: The Rebels still haven’t given up a touchdown, but they also haven’t faced as challenging a schedule as some of the other teams on this list. Do I really believe this many SEC teams will be packed at the top of the bracket? Probably not, but we need to see some of these teams play one another before we can sort them.

9. Oregon: Last week I wondered when Oregon would break out and look like the team its roster suggested it would be. That happened Saturday against Oregon State. The Ducks, who had won clunkers against Idaho and Boise State, pounded Oregon State 49-14. Now Oregon gets a week off before opening Big Ten play in a very Pac-12 way against UCLA on Sept. 28.

10. Penn State: The Nittany Lions had a week to figure out why Bowling Green got so close to them, and on Saturday they’ll face the Kent State team that got splattered 71-0 by Tennessee. We swear the interesting part of Penn State’s schedule will begin sooner than it did in the Big Ten East days, but it still won’t be until October.

11. Missouri: The Tigers fell behind early and stormed back to take control and beat Boston College. They open SEC play against Vanderbilt on Saturday.

First (Power) Four Out: USC, Oklahoma State, Utah, Nebraska

Group of Five representative

The rules don’t limit how many Group of 5 teams can make the tournament, but common sense suggests that most years only the highest ranked Group of 5 champion will make the bracket, and it will make it as the No. 12 seed because it will be ranked lower than 12.

12. UNLV: Quarterback Matthew Sluka carried the Rebels to a thrilling win at Kansas on Saturday. They’re now 2-0 against Big 12 teams and get Syracuse from the ACC in Las Vegas on Oct. 4. But they need to worry more about winning their Mountain West opener on Saturday. Remember, to be one of the five highest ranked conference champs, you have to win your conference.

Group of 5 Contenders: Northern Illinois, Boise State, USF, Toledo, Memphis

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Ole Miss
Winner faces No. 1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Alabama
Winner faces No. 4 Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Missouri at No. 6 Georgia
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl

Remaining Bubble Teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subsets: Potential at-larges and potential win-and-in conference champs. It should go without saying that a potential at-large also is a potential conference champ. In the Big Ten and the SEC, it’s likely both teams that make the conference title game will make the CFP. That isn’t a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and it’s possible one or two teams that make those games will only have a puncher’s chance that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential At-Larges

ACC: Clemson, Louisville
Big Ten: USC, Nebraska, Iowa
Big 12: Oklahoma State, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State
SEC: LSU, Oklahoma
Independents: Notre Dame

Potential Win-And-In conference champs: 

ACC: Cal, Boston College
Big Ten: None
Big 12: Iowa State, UCF, West Virginia
SEC: None

Group of Five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 league have a chance to be the highest ranked Group of 5 champ.

American Athletic Conference: Memphis, USF, Tulane
Conference USA: Liberty
MAC: Miami (Ohio), Toledo, Northern Illinois
Mountain West: Boise State
Sun Belt: Texas State