College Football Playoff predictions: Chaos forces us to look at good wins next to bad losses

College football hasn’t had to fill out a 12-team bracket before, but from the poll era through the BCS to the four-team College Football Playoff, it felt like more data provided more clarity (except in 2007). That simply isn’t the case this year. Every week makes projecting the bracket more confusing.

Alabama lost to Vanderbilt. Had a similar loss happened to an eventual Big Ten champ in the four-team CFP era, Nick Saban would have gone on SportsCenter to explain how that loss should disqualify that team from consideration. But Alabama had one of the best wins of the year just last week when it beat Georgia, which has one of the other best wins of the year against Clemson. Those good wins have to count for something.

I suspect the CFP selection committee will agree. We’re seeing some bad losses this season, but in the 12-team playoff era, I bet good wins will trump bad losses. That’s good for Notre Dame, which has an absolutely atrocious loss to Northern Illinois but has a win at Texas A&M that looks better every week. That’s also good for Alabama, which remains in the projected bracket despite losing to the Commodores for the first time since 1984.

The Top Four Seeds

Remember, these four slots are reserved only for conference champions. So don’t freak out if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams at No. 1 and No. 2, then the rules don’t allow for another team from either of those leagues until No. 5. The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game.

1. Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
Iowa frustrated the Buckeyes for a half, but then Ohio State turned on the afterburners. Now comes a trip to Eugene, and a shakeup at the top for a third consecutive week isn’t out of the question.

2. Texas (SEC champ)
After what we saw Saturday, would anyone be surprised if Oklahoma beat Texas in Dallas next week? The Longhorns would.

3. Clemson (ACC champ)
Dear angry Miami fans, I didn’t drop the Hurricanes out of the presumptive ACC champ spot because they almost lost at Cal. I dropped them last week after they almost lost to Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, Clemson went to Tallahassee and took care of business in a fashion that wasn’t as dominant as it should have been. But it’ll do for now. This spot certainly could flip a few more times.

4. BYU (Big 12 champ): I still have no idea who will win the Big 12, but BYU’s non-conference win against SMU looks even better. The Cougars took Saturday off and resume Big 12 play this week against Arizona, which lost a heartbreaker at home to Texas Tech and needs to avoid taking a second Big 12 loss.

The At-Larges

These teams didn’t win their conference, but they’re in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 host first-round games on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 go on the road.

5. Oregon
The Ducks messed around for a quarter-and-a-half before throttling Michigan State. When Ohio State comes to Autzen Stadium on Saturday, Dillon Gabriel can’t afford the two early interceptions he got away with against the Spartans.

6. Penn State
The Nittany Lions needed most of the first half to get going against UCLA. Next week, they’ll face a desperate USC team that needs a win to stay in CFP contention. We’ll see if Penn State has a killer instinct or not.

7. Miami
Even though I didn’t put the Hurricanes back in the ACC champ spot after they came back from 25 points down to win at Cal, the win was quite impressive. The Hurricanes of the past few seasons would have folded down 35-10. This team stayed calm and finished the job.

8. Alabama
Yes, that loss at Vanderbilt was horrible. The worst part is it wasn’t fluky. The Commodores converted 12 of 18 third downs. They didn’t seem scared of the Crimson Tide in the least. But Alabama still has the best win of anyone because it beat Georgia. That’s why the Tide are still here. They play South Carolina, Tennessee and Missouri in the next three weeks, and that should feel very scary for a team that just lost to Vanderbilt.

9. Georgia
The Bulldogs eventually squeezed the life out of Auburn, but it wasn’t the prettiest win. They’ll get the closest thing the SEC has to a tuneup with Mississippi State this week before heading to Austin to face Texas.

10. Notre Dame
Should the Fighting Irish be here with a loss to Northern Illinois? Maybe not, but the win in College Station in week one suggests Notre Dame should be here. Don’t worry, though. If the Irish don’t belong, either Navy, Army or both will knock them out.

11. Texas A&M
The Aggies were quietly putting together a decent season after the Notre Dame loss. But with Saturday’s 41-10 win against Missouri, Texas A&M proclaimed that it deserves consideration for the CFP if it can keep winning. And after the past few weeks, every remaining game seems winnable. (Yes, even that one at the end of the regular season.)

First (Power) Four Out: Iowa State, Ole Miss, Kansas State, Tennessee

Group of Five representative

The rules don’t limit how many Group of 5 teams can make the tournament, but common sense suggests that most years only the highest ranked Group of 5 champion will make the bracket, and it will make it as the No. 12 seed because it will be ranked lower than 12.

12. Navy
UNLV dropped out of this spot after a heartbreaking overtime loss to Syracuse. That doesn’t mean the Rebels can’t ultimately wind up here. They probably will need to beat Boise State twice to do that. Meanwhile, Navy just keeps pounding opponents. Former Mercer head coach Drew Cronic has melded the Wing-T and the triple option and made Navy’s offense a juggernaut. The only issue is that rival Army may be equally potent.

Group of 5 Contenders: Army, UNLV, Boise State, Liberty

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama
Winner faces No. 1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Navy at No. 5 Oregon
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Miami
Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 6 Penn State
Winner faces No. 3 Clemson in the Peach Bowl

Remaining Bubble Teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subsets: Potential at-larges and potential win-and-in conference champs. It should go without saying that a potential at-large also is a potential conference champ. In the Big Ten and the SEC, it’s likely both teams that make the conference title game will make the CFP. That isn’t a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and it’s possible one or two teams that make those games will only have a puncher’s chance that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential At-Larges

ACC: SMU, Pittsburgh
Big Ten: Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska
Big 12: Utah, Kansas State, Texas Tech
SEC: LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss

Potential Win-And-In conference champs: 

ACC: Virginia
Big Ten: None
Big 12: Colorado, West Virginia, Arizona
SEC: None

Group of Five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 league have a chance to be the highest ranked Group of 5 champ.

American Athletic Conference: Army, Memphis, Tulane
Conference USA: Liberty
MAC: Eastern Michigan, Toledo
Mountain West: Boise State, UNLV
Sun Belt: Louisiana-Monroe, Coastal Carolina, Texas State