College Football Playoff predictions: Clemson rises, Big 12 gets weird in latest bracketology

The Big 12 was always going to be a rollercoaster, and Saturday showed us why.

Last week, Kansas State beat Arizona by 24 in a game that didn’t count in the conference standings because it was originally scheduled before Arizona decided to join the league. That win for the Wildcats wouldn’t help them win the conference, but it held huge sway in the court of public opinion. After all, Arizona was supposed to be a contender in the new Big 12. So the win meant a lot.

Except to BYU. The Cougars, no one’s pick to win the Big 12, moved to 4-0 and notched their first conference win with a 38-9 pasting of Kansas State late Saturday. Combine that with Utah‘s win at Oklahoma State on Saturday, and now the Utes look like the favorite to win the league and claim what likely will be a top-four seed in the College Football Playoff.

Now BYU plays a Baylor team that lost to Colorado following a Hail Mary touchdown to end regulation and a goal line fumble forced by Buffaloes star Travis Hunter to end overtime. Meanwhile, Utah will play those Wildcats — whose loss in Manhattan didn’t affect their chances of winning the league.

It’s only going to get crazier from here.

The Top Four Seeds

Remember, these four slots are reserved only for conference champions. So don’t freak out if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams at No. 1 and No. 2, then the rules don’t allow for another team from either of those leagues until No. 5. The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game.

1. Ohio State (Big Ten champ): The Buckeyes showed off their weapons in a 49-14 win against Marshall that stayed competitive for about a quarter-and-a-half. Quinshon Judkins ran for 173 yards and two touchdowns, TreVeyon Henderson ran for two scores, Emeka Egbuka racked up 117 receiving yards and a score and Jeremiah Smith caught a 53-yard touchdown pass. It was like a buffet for Buckeyes’ fans. They got to see a little of everything.

2. Texas (SEC champ): Arch Manning wasn’t perfect in his first start, but the Longhorns still clobbered Louisiana-Monroe. If Quinn Ewers isn’t ready to return until the Oklahoma game on Oct. 12, Manning will start in the Longhorns’ first conference game as an SEC member. They get to open against Mississippi State, which is a far more gentle introduction to the league than Oklahoma got with Tennessee.

3. Miami (ACC champ): The Hurricanes were down 15-14 in the second quarter at USF and wound up winning 50-15. That’s how explosive they’ve become with Cam Ward running the show on offense.

4. Utah (Big 12 champ): My Kansas State bandwagon crashed into the side of a mountain in Provo on Saturday, but I probably would have put the Utes in this spot no matter what happened to Kansas State at BYU. Utah went into Stillwater and won with a backup quarterback in a style that coach Kyle Whittingham has honed over 20 seasons. Utah has the biggest win in Big 12 play so far in this young season, and the Utes should be even better when they get QB1 Cam Rising back.

The At-Larges

These teams didn’t win their conference, but they’re in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 host first-round games on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 go on the road.

5. Alabama: On Saturday, the Crimson Tide host the most recent Game of the Century of the Millenium of the Epoch of the Era, and it’s against…

6. Georgia: If the Bulldogs play the way they did at Kentucky on Sept. 14, they’ll lose in Tuscaloosa. Georgia used the bye week to work with an offensive line combination that is different because of the ankle injury star guard Tate Ratledge suffered against Kentucky. The Bulldogs have several backups who have played significant snaps. It’s just a matter of repping the new starting five together. If that group can jell, then the Bulldogs should be able to move the ball.

7. Tennessee: I probably should move the Volunteers up after their win at Oklahoma, but there’s not much real estate above them. I’m still not sure they’d beat Alabama or Georgia, but fortunately they play both so we’ll find out. The fact is Tennessee keeps looking like a playoff team. We’ll know in the coming weeks whether the Vols also look like a potential SEC champ.

8. Ole Miss: How Ole Miss handles its SEC opener likely depends on whether the Rebels get the Kentucky that got drilled by South Carolina or the Kentucky that pushed Georgia to the limit.

9. Oregon: The Ducks open Big Ten play on Saturday, but unlike USC and Washington, Oregon and fellow Pac-12 refugee UCLA get to open conference play against one another. So it should feel just like old times, but without any Chip Kelly-playing-against-his-old-team storylines. Those are shelved until Ohio State goes to Eugene on Oct. 12.

10. Penn State: When the Nittany Lions got rolling against Kent State, they made it look easy. But now they must prepare for an Illinois team that won in overtime at Nebraska and doesn’t make anything easy for opponents.

11. Clemson: After getting smoked by Georgia, Clemson has beaten Appalachian State and N.C. State by a combined score of 125-55. Is it possible the Mountaineers and Wolfpack are just bad? It is, but Clemson has looked exceedingly competent since the loss to the Bulldogs. The Tigers’ schedule isn’t exactly daunting. They should be favored in every game the rest of the way. And if they win those games, they might even be able to lose the ACC title game and make the CFP. And if the bracket works out this way, they’d have to face Georgia against — this time in Athens.

First (Power) Four Out: Missouri, Kansas State, Illinois, Michigan

Group of Five representative

The rules don’t limit how many Group of 5 teams can make the tournament, but common sense suggests that most years only the highest ranked Group of 5 champion will make the bracket, and it will make it as the No. 12 seed because it will be ranked lower than 12.

12. UNLV: Mountain West play begins for the Rebels on Saturday with Fresno State. UNLV has beaten two Big 12 teams and faces Syracuse in Las Vegas on Oct. 4, but none of those wins against power conference teams will matter from a CFP perspective unless UNLV can win its conference.

Group of 5 Contenders: Boise State, Toledo, Memphis, Liberty

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Ole Miss
Winner faces No. 1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Alabama
Winner faces No. 4 Utah in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Clemson at No. 6 Georgia
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl

Remaining Bubble Teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subsets: Potential at-larges and potential win-and-in conference champs. It should go without saying that a potential at-large also is a potential conference champ. In the Big Ten and the SEC, it’s likely both teams that make the conference title game will make the CFP. That isn’t a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and it’s possible one or two teams that make those games will only have a puncher’s chance that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential At-Larges

ACC: Louisville, Pittsburgh
Big Ten: Michigan, USC, Iowa
Big 12: Oklahoma State
SEC: Missouri, LSU, Oklahoma
Independents: Notre Dame

Potential Win-And-In conference champs: 

ACC: Boston College
Big Ten: None
Big 12: Arizona, BYU, West Virginia, Iowa State, UCF
SEC: None

Group of Five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 league have a chance to be the highest ranked Group of 5 champ.

American Athletic Conference: Navy, Memphis
Conference USA: Liberty
MAC: Toledo
Mountain West: Boise State
Sun Belt: James Madison, Texas State