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College Football Playoff Predictions: ESPN projects 12-team field after Week 4

IMG_6598by:Nick Kosko09/24/24

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College Football Playoff Predictions ESPN Projects 12 Team Field (1)
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ESPN projected the 12-team College Football Playoff field after Week 3 and there were some changes from last weekend.

But as always, these playoff projections will certainly change week to week. Just wait til we get the inevitable upsets!

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The most notable change was a switch among the teams with a bye week. Kansas State is no longer the projected Big 12 champion. That’d be Utah.

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The four highest-ranked conference champions will receive byes, and the first-round games will all take place at campus sites to being the playoff. From there, the winners will advance to respective bowl games leading to the national championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Jan. 20.

1. Texas

Steve Sarkisian
Steve Sarkisian (Will Gallagher/Inside Texas)

The Longhorns remained the top team in the country in the AP Poll and they’re the top team in the playoff projections. Arch Manning, Quinn Ewers, doesn’t matter.

Although the latter could return soon, Texas is a machine right now. Mississippi State is up next and the Bulldogs better hang on for dear life.

2. Ohio State

The Buckeyes are the projected Big Ten champion and the No. 2 seed in the playoffs right now. Ohio State dominated Marshall over the weekend and right now, not much has changed at the top of the conference.

Sure, there might be a race for second, unless Oregon has something to say about that. But Ohio State is clearly in the driver’s seat for this spot.

3. Miami

Miami earns this spot in the playoff projections due to an ACC championship. Although the ‘Canes are still a slight step behind the top two teams in the country.

Mario Cristobal has this team humming right now. Cam Ward is playing at a Heisman level and this is by far the best team in the ACC.

4. Utah

SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Big 12 is whacky again but there’s a new playoff projection for this new-look conference. Utah is back at the top following a win over Oklahoma State.

If you couple that with a Kansas State loss, who was in this spot last week, we have a different team getting a bye. The Utes just get it done, which is a big credit to Kyle Whittingham.

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia 

The Broncos are the new top Group of Five team but they’ll still be the No. 12 seed due to the overall rankings. Georgia, arguably the second best team behind Texas, remains at No. 5.

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Why? In case you need a refresher, the highest ranked non-conference champion can’t finish higher than No. 5 in the playoff seedings. So here lies Georgia. Ashton Jeanty better bring it in Athens if this game happens.

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oregon

This is the same playoff prediction from last week as Alabama and Oregon haven’t done anything to warrant significant movement. But, both teams look like conference contenders.

Yeah, Texas and Georgia are head, but Alabama plays the latter this week. And don’t forget, Oregon can turn these playoff predictions upside down with a win over Ohio State in a few weeks.

No. 11 Missouri at No. 6 Tennessee

Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava and coach Josh Heupel. Credit: UT Athletics
Credit: UT Athletics

Last week, Missouri was in this exact spot in the playoff predictions. However, they were matched up against Ole Miss (more on them later).

Tennessee went into Oklahoma, handled the Sooners and proved they are certainly for real. They also sent the Sooners for a QB tizzy afterwards.

No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ole Miss

Penn State didn’t move this week but the playoff projections say you know what? Let’s match them up against an SEC school instead.

Penn State was initially predicted to play Big Ten foe USC, but with the latter’s loss, Ole Miss moves down (of course with Tennessee’s win). This is still a very fun matchup.

First Four Out in Playoff

Clemson
Notre Dame
Michigan
USC

Next Four Out in Playoff

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

LSU
Iowa State
Illinois
Indiana

Group of Five Power Rankings

1. Boise State
2. UNLV
3. James Madison
4. Fresno State
5. Liberty