College Football Playoff Predictions: ESPN projects 12-team field after Week 7

After a wild Week 7 in the 2024 college football season, ESPN released its College Football Playoff predictions. With that thrilling week, the projections have been shaken up.

As a reminder, the College Football Playoff format is brand new in 2024. 12 teams will make it to the Playoff, with the top five ranked conference champions receiving automatic bids. The rest of the field will be filled out by at-large bids based on the CFP rankings. The top four-ranked conference champions get a first-round bye and the first round of games will be played on campus.

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These are projections and are subject to change throughout the season. For now, though, here’s a look at how ESPN is projecting the College Football Playoff field.

1. Texas

The Texas Longhorns currently sit atop ESPN’s predictions for the College Football Playoff field. That’s not particularly surprising, given that the Longhorns have been dominant throughout the first half of the season. That includes winning a pair of marquee games against Michigan and Oklahoma.

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The schedule doesn’t get any easier from here for Texas. The Georgia Bulldogs are coming to town next weekend. Then, rival Texas A&M is looming at the end of the season. So, there are going to be more opportunities for wins to cement Texas’ place atop the rankings. However, there are also plenty of chances to slip up.

2. Oregon

The Oregon Ducks have one of the best wins of the season, beating Ohio State in a thriller. It was a phenomenal game that helped solidify the unbeaten Ducks in the second seed for ESPN’s Playoff predictions for the time being. That’s even with Oregon starting slow in non-conference play this season.

At this point, Oregon sits atop the Big Ten. Assuming they stay in that position, they’d win the conference and earn the first-round bye as a top-four ranked team at the end of the season. Of course, it’s a highly competitive conference, and winning it is going to be a challenge moving forward.

3. Miami

To this point in the 2024 season, the Miami Hurricanes have managed to live up to the massive expectations they entered the season with. That’s largely thanks to Cam Ward, the transfer quarterback who is contending for the Heisman. With that, Miami looks to be atop the ACC.

After a couple of close calls in ACC play, Miami had a bye week last week. Now, the Hurricanes are going to need to refocus and navigate their way through the second half of the season. After that, it would take an ACC Championship Game win to earn the first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.

4. BYU

The BYU Cougars have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 season. Unbeaten through six games, the Cougars are sitting at the top of the Big 12 standings. With that, they appear to be in position to win the conference and a top-four seed in the Playoff.

While there are some potentially tricky games upcoming for BYU, there aren’t any teams that are currently ranked. That can hurt BYU’s resume overall. However, given the new format of the College Football Playoff, it would still likely result in a first-round bye if the Cougars could hold on to win the Big 12.

No. 12 Iowa State at No. 5 Penn State

Another unbeaten Big 12 team, Iowa State has flown under the radar this season. However, on the back of an excellent defense, the Cyclones are still in the race for the College Football Playoff. That could come by winning the Big 12 or being a part of a very interesting conversation about a potentially unbeaten Big 12 team that lost its conference championship game.

On the other side is Penn State. The Nittany Lions are unbeaten and actually ranked third in the current AP Top 25 Poll. Given that only a conference champion can earn the first-round bye, ESPN’s predictions are clearly taking Oregon to win the Big Ten. Still, it’s hard to ignore the Nittany Lions as they keep on winning.

No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Alabama

After largely being written off after their Week 1 loss, the Clemson Tigers have stormed back into the College Football Playoff conversation. Since then, they’ve been one of the most dominant teams in the country and look to be a real threat, not just in the ACC but nationally.

For their part, the Alabama Crimson Tide have one of the best wins of the season against Georgia. Since, that game, however, a loss to Vanderbilt and a close win over South Carolina haven’t inspired confidence in the Crimson Tide. Still, Alabama is talented and has plenty of chances to keep proving that.

No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ohio State

The LSU Tigers, similarly to the Clemson Tigers, are in the process of overcoming an early season loss. Most recently, that came in the form of a win over rival Ole Miss in overtime. This is a talented Tigers team that is excited to make noise in the second half.

For Ohio State, expectations coming into the season were through the roof. However, the Buckeyes suffered a heartbreaking loss against Oregon. With that, they’re still a threat to make the Playoff but are a step behind in the Big Ten race.

No. 10 Boise State at No. 7 Georgia

The Boise State Broncos, save for a close road loss to Oregon, have been dominant. That’s largely thanks to running back Ashton Jeanty. A true Heisman candidate as a Group of Five running back, he could run the Broncos into the Playoff.

Georgia is, of course, one of the favorites every season. They certainly have a ton of talent but their loss to Alabama is holding them slightly back in 2024. From here, the schedule doesn’t get any easier. So, the Bulldogs have a chance to firmly establish themselves this season.

First Four Out in Playoff

Tennessee
Notre Dame
Kansas State
Indiana

Next Four Out in Playoff

Texas A&M
Illinois
Ole Miss
Pitt

Group of Five Power Rankings

1. Boise State
2. Navy
3. Army
4. Louisiana-Monroe
5. UNLV