College Football Playoff Predictions: ESPN ranks Top 24 teams most likely to make 12-team field

The College Football Playoff era is entering a new era a decade into its existence. For the first time, 12 teams will get into the field after previously being four. Four conference champions will automatically qualify and receive byes, while eight at-large bids are handed out by the committee.

To give an idea of who is in contention, ESPN decided to rank the top 24 teams most likely to be in the field come December. Potentially as expected, Big Ten and SEC programs dominate throughout, specifically in the top 10.

Other conferences will have representation, though, including at least one Group of Five team. You can check out ESPN’s full list below.

1. Georgia Bulldogs – 78%

Georgia making the College Football Playoff would be nothing new, being one of the more frequent participants. Extending the field to 12 teams only increases the odds of the Bulldogs, good enough for the top spot per ESPN.

Even with a tougher schedule incoming, ESPN still expects Georgia to have a ton of success. The return of Carson Beck and other key contributors across the roster might be the biggest factor.

2. Oregon Ducks – 76%

New conference, no problems for Oregon, apparently. The Ducks are moving from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten but have the highest CFP odds of anybody in the conference.

Dan Lanning has built up his roster in just three seasons and added another veteran quarterback in Dillon Gabriel. Expectations are high out West, even if they are taking a step up in competition.

3. Texas Longhorns – 68%

Another conference newbie, Texas is hoping they can take the SEC by storm after winning the Big 12 in 2023. Their first-ever College Football Playoff appearance then followed, narrowly losing to Washington at the buzzer.

But it’s a new season in Austin with multiple new faces being plugged in alongside a few returning ones. Quinn Ewers enters as a Heisman Trophy favorite and may have to reach that height for Texas to still be alive in late December.

4. Ohio State Buckeyes – 67%

For somebody with just eight losses to his name in five seasons and change, there is a lot of pressure on Ryan Day. Big-time wins need to occur during the 2024 season, beginning Nov. 30 against the reigning national champions.

Earning a ring of their own is what Buckeye fans expect out of this year’s squad. The roster is filled with NFL talent, both offensively and defensively, stacking up to be better than nearly every opponent on the schedule, at least on paper.

t-5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish – 59%

Finally, a non-Big Ten or SEC team on the list! Every other program inside the top 10 is from those two conferences, with Independent Notre Dame leading the charge outside of them.

Marcus Freeman enters his third year in South Bend with higher expectations than ever. Riley Leonard‘s presence has brought excitement to the Fighting Irish, hoping he can elevate an already improved offensive skillset around him.

t-5. Penn State Nittany Lions – 59%

Had the original College Football Playoff included 12 teams, Penn State would have been a frequent participant. Instead, they never made the four-team edition and were always on the outside, looking in.

If there’s a year to make some noise, the Nittany Lions need to make it 2024. Drew Allar returns with a great run game behind him and an excellent defense on the other side. Additionally, of the former Big Ten East big boys duo, only Ohio State falls on the schedule.

7. Alabama Crimson Tide – 57%

There might not be a team with more eyeballs on them this season than Alabama. While that’s usually the case, having somebody new on the sideline, Kalen DeBoer, will be the biggest story in college football out the gates.

DeBoer is hoping to keep the Alabama standard at the same high level. Reaching the College Football Playoff would accomplish the goal, if not winning a game or two once in the 12-team field.

t-8. Missouri Tigers – 37%

Last year’s surprise SEC team winning 10 games, Missouri is hoping to sustain the success. Getting back to double-digit wins in 2024 would assumably mean a spot in the CFP for the first time in school history.

Missouri could be one of the teams to benefit from not having divisions in the SEC. While a road trip to Alabama is on the schedule, four other games are against former SEC West teams, only one of which appears on this lift.

t-8. Tennessee Volunteers – 37%

Nico Iamaleava has been hyped around Knoxville from the moment he committed. His time has finally come, taking over as the Tennessee starting quarterback Aug. 31 against Chattanooga.

James Pearce highlights the defensive unit, being a popular selection for the No. 1 overall pick in 2025 NFL Draft. If Tennessee sees their star players hit, a long season might be ahead of the Vols — in a good way.

t-8. Oklahoma Sooners – 37%

Arguably the lesser hyped of the two new SEC programs, Oklahoma still falls in the top 10 of odds to make the College Football Playoff per ESPN. Tied with two other conference foes, Oklahoma will face the other teams on Sept. 21 (Tennessee) and Nov. 9 (Missouri).

The Sooners are hoping to have one of college football’s best defenses, having stars at every level. Jackson Arnold is taking over at quarterback, with his ability being viewed as the potential difference maker in Norman.

11. Florida State Seminoles – 36%
12. Michigan Wolverines – 28%
13. Clemson Tigers – 27%
14. LSU Tigers – 25%
15. Kansas Jayhawks – 24%
t-16. Kansas State Wildcats – 21%
t-16. Texas A&M Aggies – 21%
t-16. Ole Miss Rebels – 21%
t-19. Louisville Cardinals – 18%
t-19. Miami Hurricanes – 18%
21. SMU Mustangs – 17%
t-22. Boise State Broncos – 16%
t-22. Arizona Wildcats – 16%
t-22. UTSA Roadrunners – 16%