College Football Playoff predictions: Georgia is back, but who gets knocked out?

As I wrote last week, you’re probably going to see this bracket and freak out.

Last week’s bracket omitted Georgia, and I was surprised to see that the College Football Playoff selection committee also had Georgia ranked in a way that would make the Bulldogs the first team out. But Georgia’s 31-17 win against Tennessee vaults the Bulldogs back into the bracket. That also means Tennessee is the only potential at-large team that lost Saturday.

This bracket is not a prediction of this week’s CFP ranking. It’s a projection of how the bracket might actually look after the games of Championship Saturday conclude.

So I’ve got to make some game predictions, and the toughest prediction is this: Who is going to be the SEC champion? That requires first determining who is going to play in the SEC title game. Tennessee beating Georgia might have made that easier. The one-loss Volunteers and one-loss Texas would have controlled their destinies for the game. But given what we’ve seen from Texas, are we sure the Longhorns will beat Texas A&M on Nov. 30 in College Station? Because if the Aggies beat Auburn next week and beat Texas two days after Thanksgiving, Texas A&M — which has two losses but only one in SEC play — would make the SEC title game. If chalk holds in the other games, the Aggies would face a team from this group: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Texas.

Who would they play? I inputted all the remaining games into this site assuming Texas A&M beat Texas and the favorites won all the other games. In that scenario, Alabama would face the Aggies in Atlanta.

Meanwhile, a two-loss Texas would get tossed into the who-have-you-beaten Olympics with Indiana (assuming a loss at Ohio State) and Penn State.

I had to leave someone out. As I said, don’t freak out. Your team still has a chance to prove me wrong and win its way in.

Top Four Seeds

Remember, these four slots are reserved only for conference champions. So don’t freak out if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams at No. 1 and No. 2, then the rules don’t allow for another team from either of those leagues until No. 5. The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game.

1. Oregon (Big Ten champ)
The Ducks survived at Wisconsin. I didn’t love the fake field goal at the end, but only because if Oregon wanted to go for it on fourth down I’d rather have the ball in Dillon Gabriel’s hands. Sometimes you just have to win your clunkers. Oregon did that.

2. Alabama (SEC champ)
If you’ve read the past editions of Bracketology, you know I had Texas in this spot. Last week I put the Longhorns here because it offered the cleanest way to order the SEC teams. There is no more clean way. And if Texas plays the way it did against Arkansas, it won’t beat Texas A&M. Meanwhile, Alabama and quarterback Jalen Milroe would be a tough matchup for the Aggies in Atlanta. That said, the Crimson Tide need to be on high alert with Oklahoma and Auburn remaining. Neither team has been good this season, but each will be looking for a season-making shocker.

3. Miami (ACC champ)
Consider this a prediction that Miami wins out and then beats SMU in the ACC title game. SMU has been great this year, but the Georgia Tech loss may have been the wake-up call the Hurricanes needed.

4. Colorado (Big 12 champ)
A lot of non-ball-knowers will recoil at this projection because they dislike Deion Sanders. They should try watching the Buffaloes, who are playing better than anyone in the Big 12 right now. They have a tricky game against Kansas — which has beaten Iowa State and BYU in consecutive weeks — next week, but if they win it they’re in the Big 12 title game with a one-game proposition to make the CFP.

The At-Larges

These teams didn’t win their conference, but they’re in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 host first-round games on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 go on the road.

5. Ohio State
The Buckeyes rolled Northwestern at Wrigley Field. Now comes undefeated Indiana. If Ohio State wins this one, the Buckeyes will just have to get the Michigan monkey off their backs and get ready for the Big Ten title game.

6. Georgia
The Georgia team we saw against Tennessee can beat anyone in the CFP. The Georgia team we saw against Ole Miss can lose to almost anyone in the CFP. The offensive line looked much better than a week earlier against a defense that was almost as good

7. Ole Miss
The Rebels are playing as well as anyone, and their win against Georgia — particularly the way they won the game — likely will stick with committee members. They just have to make sure they don’t trip up in Gainesville this week. It looks like the Ole Miss team that lost to Kentucky is a relic of the past, but the Rebels will need to prove that against Florida and Mississippi State.

8. Notre Dame
Yes, the loss to Northern Illinois still sucks. But the win at Texas A&M continues to look good. And next week Notre Dame faces undefeated Army at Yankee Stadium.

9. Penn State
The Nittany Lions’ strength of schedule is better than most realize. It’s No. 33 in the Sagarin rankings and No. 32 in ESPN’s FPI rating. That keeps Penn State above Indiana in the committee’s ranking even though the Nittany Lions have a loss. Playing Ohio State will help Indiana’s strength of schedule, though. And the comparison of how the teams played head-to-head will go a long way in the comparison.

10. Tennessee
The Volunteers’ win against Alabama will do a lot of heavy lifting, especially if the Crimson Tide wins the SEC. The offense needs to improve if Tennessee wants to win games in the CFP, though.

11. Indiana
If Indiana plays a very close game at Ohio State, it will wind up seeded higher than this. If the Hoosiers lose by three touchdowns, they may not make the CFP at all. Texas A&M would be in this spot after losing the SEC title game to Alabama. Of course, if Indiana makes it and Texas A&M doesn’t in this situation, then SEC commissioner Greg Sankey will be on the warpath. The way to avoid any debate for Indiana? Beat Ohio State and go into the CFP as a much higher seed.

First (Power) Four Out: Texas A&M, Texas, BYU, SMU

Group of Five representative

The rules don’t limit how many Group of 5 teams can make the tournament, but common sense suggests that most years only the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion will make the bracket, and it will make it as the No. 12 seed because it will be ranked lower than 12.

12. Boise State
The Broncos were tied at 21 with San Jose State before turning on the afterburners and winning 42-21. They’re still safe here as long as Army doesn’t beat Notre Dame, and they still may be safe because Army could still lose to Tulane. (Though if that’s the case, the Green Wave may get some support — but probably not enough to overtake Boise State.)

Group of 5 Contenders: Army, UNLV, Tulane

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 Colorado in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Ole Miss
Winner faces No. 2 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Georgia
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl

Remaining Bubble Teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subsets: Potential at-larges and potential win-and-in conference champs. It should go without saying that a potential at-large also is a potential conference champ. In the Big Ten and the SEC, it’s likely both teams that make the conference title game will make the CFP. That isn’t a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and one or two teams that make those games may only have a puncher’s chance that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential At-Larges

ACC: SMU
Big Ten: None
Big 12: BYU
SEC: Texas A&M, Texas

Potential Win-And-In Conference Champs: 

ACC: None
Big Ten: None
Big 12: Arizona State

SEC: None

Group of Five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 league have a chance to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 champ.

American Athletic Conference: Army, Tulane
Conference USA: None
MAC: None
Mountain West: UNLV
Sun Belt: None