College Football Playoff Predictions: Georgia moves atop Bracketology

Georgia’s win against Texas forced me to shuffle the top of the College Football Playoff bracket projection, but the Bulldogs’ 30-15 win wasn’t nearly the most intriguing result from a Bracketology perspective.

That was Indiana hammering Nebraska so thoroughly and painfully that I had no choice but to include coach Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers in the bracket. As Indiana racked up wins, we looked at that November back-to-back against Michigan and Ohio State as evidence that the Hoosiers would fade. Now? Indiana probably will be favored against Michigan. The Hoosiers probably still will be significant underdogs to the Buckeyes, but no one who has watched Indiana play is writing even that one off as a loss. An 11-1 Indiana is a distinct possibility.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s win against Alabama knocked the Crimson Tide out of the bracket. With upcoming games against one-loss teams Missouri and LSU, Alabama can play its way right back into the field.

But the Tide have looked too much like everyone else these past three weeks (loss at Vanderbilt, near-loss to South Carolina at home, loss at Tennessee) to assume they’re going to run the table. They still may, and if they do, that win against the possible No. 1 seed would help Alabama’s seeding as well.

The Top Four Seeds

Remember, these four slots are reserved only for conference champions. So don’t freak out if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams at No. 1 and No. 2, then the rules don’t allow for another team from either of those leagues until No. 5. The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game.

1. Georgia (SEC champ)
The selection committee set the precedent in year one of the CFP that an undefeated team wouldn’t automatically get ranked ahead of a one-loss team when undefeated Florida State was ranked No. 3 behind one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oregon. The committee reinforced that last year when the 13-0 Seminoles were ranked No. 5 and landed behind two one-loss teams. That’s why I have no qualms about projecting a potentially one-loss Georgia ahead of a potentially undefeated Oregon. If a game between the Bulldogs and Ducks were scheduled on a neutral field tomorrow, Vegas would favor Georgia. The committee would too in a similar circumstance. The Bulldogs showed in Austin that they probably still have the greatest quantity of truly special players. Because of NIL and the end of transfer rules, no one has the sheer volume of difference-making dudes that 2021 Georgia or 2018 Clemson or 2012 Alabama had. But the Bulldogs have managed to keep their supply higher than anyone else.

2. Oregon (Big Ten champ)
The Ducks smashed Purdue on Friday to keep rolling. Oregon may have its toughest remaining Big Ten regular-season game on Saturday when 6-1 Illinois visits Eugene.

3. Clemson (ACC champ)
I know Miami is still undefeated. This is a prediction that Clemson would beat Miami if the teams met in the ACC title game. But that prediction has several chances to change. The Hurricanes might have passed their toughest regular-season test at Louisville. Clemson gets the Cardinals on Nov. 2 and then plays at Virginia Tech on Nov. 9 and at currently undefeated Pittsburgh on Nov. 16. None of those will be easy.

4. BYU (Big 12 champ)
Both undefeated Big 12 teams needed some last-minute magic to win this week. BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff hit Darius Lassiter for a 35-yard touchdown with 10 seconds remaining to beat Oklahoma State on Friday night. On Saturday night, Iowa State QB Rocco Becht plunged into the end zone with 30 seconds remaining to beat UCF. These two teams seem to be on a collision course with one another. I only have BYU higher because of the dominant win against Kansas State. But the Big 12 schedule could have plenty of twists and turns ahead.

The At-Larges

These teams didn’t win their conference, but they’re in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 host first-round games on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 go on the road.

5. Texas
The Longhorns looked legitimately surprised at Georgia’s defensive speed, size and length in the first half. It was the first time we’ve seen the Texas offensive line struggle all season. That group did improve as the game went on. It will be interesting to see if the teams meet again in the SEC title game whether Texas avoids the initial shock phase that put the Longhorns behind the eight-ball this past Saturday. Of course, they also need to make sure they respect Vanderbilt, which is trying to win its third consecutive SEC game this week when the teams meet in Nashville.

6. Ohio State
The Buckeyes are done with open weeks and return to action against a Nebraska team that just got smacked around by Indiana. Ohio State should win this one, but the Buckeyes need to be careful they aren’t looking ahead to…

7. Penn State
After a week off following a comeback win at USC, the Nittany Lions travel to Madison to face Wisconsin, which has beaten its past three opponents by at least 20 points. But none of those opponents compared physically to Penn State, which can’t get caught peeking ahead to the Ohio State game.

8. Miami
The Hurricanes have one of the nation’s most exciting offenses. QB Cam Ward looks confident he can score every time he touches the field, and tailback Damien Martinez turned in one of the nation’s nastiest runs this season at Louisville. Miami doesn’t have a great defense, but it also doesn’t have a lot of upcoming opponents that can exploit that issue. On Saturday, Florida State plays at Miami for the first time since a 45-3 Seminoles win in 2022. Look for the Hurricanes to try to make a similar point.

9. Indiana
There’s no leaving the Hoosiers off this list after their 56-7 win against Nebraska on Saturday. They haven’t played a truly elite opponent yet — that would be Ohio State on Nov. 23 — but they just keep smashing everything in their path. Even after Indiana lost starting QB Kurtis Rourke to an injured hand on Saturday, backup Tayven Jackson came in and might have run the offense even more potently.

10. Tennessee
The Nico Iamaleava from the Arkansas game, the Florida game and the first half of the Alabama game isn’t leading the Volunteers to the CFP. But the guy who showed up in the second half against the Crimson Tide on Saturday absolutely can. The Vols still have a visit to Georgia on the schedule, but they probably don’t have to win that one to make the field. They would have to win everytihng else, and their defense makes them capable of doing that.

11. Notre Dame
I’m leaving Notre Dame in the at-large field and moving Navy from the No. 12 spot to the Group of 5 bubble because for Notre Dame to be here when the season ends, the Fighting Irish probably need to have beaten Navy and Army. And if Notre Dame beats Navy this week at Met-Life Stadium, it probably enhances the case for Friday’s Boise State-UNLV winner to make the CFP as the Mountain West champ. Navy did look awesome Saturday in a rout of Charlotte, but the Irish played some of their best football this season in the second half of their 31-13 win against Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Notre Dame will need to be that sharp for the entire game to beat Navy.

First (Power) Four Out: Texas A&M, LSU, Iowa State, Alabama

Group of Five representative

The rules don’t limit how many Group of 5 teams can make the tournament, but common sense suggests that most years only the highest ranked Group of 5 champion will make the bracket, and it will make it as the No. 12 seed because it will be ranked lower than 12.

12. Boise State
To wind up here, the Broncos need to beat UNLV on Friday (and probably again in the Mountain West title game) and need Notre Dame to beat Navy, Army or whichever of those two winds up winning the American Athletic Conference. That said, no one has stopped Broncos tailback Ashton Jeanty yet. He’ll be in the spotlight in Las Vegas on Friday. It’s also possible one of the service academies beats Notre Dame and wins the American and both that team and Boise State make the CFP.

Group of 5 Contenders: Navy, Army, UNLV, Liberty

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Miami
Winner faces No. 1 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Penn State
Winner faces No. 2 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 3 Clemson in the Peach Bowl

Remaining Bubble Teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subsets: Potential at-larges and potential win-and-in conference champs. It should go without saying that a potential at-large also is a potential conference champ. In the Big Ten and the SEC, it’s likely both teams that make the conference title game will make the CFP. That isn’t a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and it’s possible one or two teams that make those games will only have a puncher’s chance that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential At-Larges

ACC: Pittsburgh, SMU
Big Ten: Illinois
Big 12: Iowa State, Kansas State
SEC: LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee

Potential Win-And-In conference champs: 

ACC: Duke, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Big Ten: None
Big 12: Colorado, Texas Tech, Cincinnati
SEC: None

Group of Five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 league have a chance to be the highest ranked Group of 5 champ.

American Athletic Conference: Army, Navy, Memphis, Tulane
Conference USA: Liberty
MAC: None
Mountain West: UNLV
Sun Belt: Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe