College Football Playoff Predictions: How does bracketology handle an undefeated Notre Dame?

We’ve known what the 12-team College Football Playoff would look since the plan was unveiled in 2021, but it has been fun watching people realize by degrees what the seeding rules mean for Notre Dame.

Former Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick was one of the four people who helped design the system, and it certainly feels designed to ensure Notre Dame never has to join a conference. In most seasons, a 10-2 Notre Dame will make the field. But a concession Swarbrick had to make — which only seems fair — is that because Notre Dame will never have to play in a conference title game, it can’t be seeded higher than No. 5. The top four seeds are reserved for conference champions, and Notre Dame can’t win a conference.

So does this mean if Notre Dame goes undefeated that the selection committee will automatically slot the Irish in at No. 5? It seems like an appropriate question after the Fighting Irish won at Texas A&M as a point-spread underdog and now face 11 games where they likely will be the favorite.

Last year, a one-loss Alabama was ranked above 13-0 Florida State. So going undefeated against what is perceived to be a weaker schedule doesn’t necessarily guarantee a higher ranking. But the conference title game aspect also may come into play here.

Two of the teams fighting a hypothetically undefeated Notre Dame for the No. 5 seed will be the losers of the Big Ten and SEC title games. The records of those teams likely will be 12-1 or 11-2. So would that 11-2 team — with potentially two losses to the No. 1 or No. 2 seed — be elevated above a 12-0 Notre Dame?

The committee will have to provide an answer if that situation arises, and it definitely won’t make everyone happy.

The Top Four Seeds

Remember, these four slots are reserved only for conference champions. So don’t freak out if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams at No. 1 and No. 2, then the rules don’t allow for another team from either of those leagues until No. 5. The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game.

1. Ohio State (Big Ten champ): Freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith was as good as advertised and the defense was dominant as expected against Akron. Unfortunately for us, the viewers, Ohio State may not break a sweat until October.

2. Georgia (SEC champ): The most devastating criticism of Georgia opponent Clemson came independently from former co-worker Holly Anderson and current co-host Ari Wasserman: Could it be that Kirby Smart told offensive coordinator Mike Bobo to stay vanilla against the Tigers becauase Smart wasn’t worried about Clemson scoring? You can actually think that when you have Georgia’s talent.

3. Miami (ACC champ): I gave Georgia Tech its week after the win against Florida State, and the Yellow Jackets certainly could still wind up in the ACC title race. But Miami was so dominant against Florida in every facet that the Hurricanes probably should be the favorite in the league now. Cam Ward was awesome with 385 passing yards in Gainesville, but the factor that inspires the most confidence was the play of Miami’s offensive and defensive lines. Dominance in the trenches travels, and it overcomes a lot.

4. Kansas State (Big 12 champ): The Big 12 is as wide-open as ever, so I’ll keep driving the Avery Johnson bandwagon for now. But to stay here, the Wildcats will have to put up points against first-year Tulane coach Jon Sumrall, a defensive whiz who usually has a great game plan on that side of the ball.

The At-Larges

These teams didn’t win their conference, but they’re in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 host first-round games on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 go on the road.

5. Notre Dame: The most impressive part of the Fighting Irish win in College Station was how Notre Dame’s inexperienced offensive line began blowing open holes in the run game in the second half. That, combined with a very experienced defense, is why Notre Dame probably will be favored in its next 11 games.

6. Alabama: Alabama certainly didn’t do anything wrong to move down, but the discussion from the top of this column would apply here. The Crimson Tide looked unstoppable against Western Kentucky. But the question is whether an SEC (or Big Ten) team with a loss — or a two-loss conference title game loser — would be ranked above an undefeated Notre Dame. I don’t think it would.

7. Texas: The Longhorns torched Colorado State, and now it’s on to Michigan. We’ll learn exactly how good this offense is when it faces all those first-rounders on the Wolverines’ defense.

8. Ole Miss: The Rebels hammered Furman, and they should keep dominating throughout this month. Like Ohio State, Ole Miss has a long runway before the challenges begin.

9. Penn State: The Nittany Lions controlled West Virginia’s offense, which we expected. But we didn’t know how the offense would look in new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s first game. It looked — dare we say it — explosive against a decent opponent. Can it stay that way?

10. USC: The Trojans can play defense! At least we think they can after holding LSU to 20 in a thrilling win on Sunday night. Quarterback Miller Moss looked fantastic, but the headline was a defense that could make open field tackles and made a huge goal line stand on the first drive that turned out to be the difference in the game.

11. Oregon: It wasn’t always pretty against Idaho, but Oregon won its clunker. If the Ducks don’t fix the sloppiness against Boise State, they won’t be on this list next week.

First (Power) Four Out: Tennessee, Missouri, Utah, LSU

Group of Five representative

The rules don’t limit how many Group of 5 teams can make the tournament, but common sense suggests that most years only the highest ranked Group of 5 champion will make the bracket, and it will make it as the No. 12 seed because it will be ranked lower than 12.

12. UNLV: While Boise State tailback Ashton Jeanty had to put up video game numbers to keep the Broncos ahead of a Sun Belt team (Georgia Southern), UNLV’s defense clamped down and dominated a Big 12 team. After a 24-7 win against Houston, the Rebels have another tune-up against Utah Tech. If they’d like to occupy this spot at the end of the season, they probably need to beat Kansas on Friday the 13th.

Group of 5 Contenders: Boise State, USF, Appalachian State

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Ole Miss
Winner faces No. 1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 4 Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 USC at No. 7 Texas
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Oregon at No. 6 Alabama
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl

Remaining Bubble Teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subsets: Potential at-larges and potential win-and-in conference champs. It should go without saying that a potential at-large also is a potential conference champ. In the Big Ten and the SEC, it’s likely both teams that make the conference title game will make the CFP. That isn’t a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and it’s possible one or two teams that make those games will only have a puncher’s chance that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential At-Larges

ACC: Clemson, N.C. State, Louisville, Florida State
Big Ten:  Iowa
Big 12: Utah, Oklahoma State, Arizona
SEC: LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma

Potential Win-And-In conference champs: 

ACC: None
Big Ten: None
Big 12: West Virginia, UCF, Iowa State, Kansas
SEC: None

Group of Five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 league have a chance to be the highest ranked Group of 5 champ.

American Athletic Conference: UTSA, Memphis, USF, Tulane
Conference USA: Liberty
MAC: Miami (Ohio), Toledo, Northern Illinois
Mountain West: Boise State