College Football Playoff Predictions: Massey Ratings projection after week 1

The long-awaited first full weekend of college football games has come and gone, and fans were treated to big-time matchups around the country and a first look at their favorite teams in this historic 2024 season.

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With plenty of games to be played before conference championship weekend, the On3 Massey Ratings give us a glimpse of what the new 12-team College Football Playoff format could look like come December. Teams like Penn State and Notre Dame saw their stock rise after impressive road wins, while Florida State has plummeted after starting the year 0-2.

The On3 Massey Ratings – which were officially used during the BCS era and have generated high school sports team rankings since 1995 – rank sports teams by analyzing game outcomes, strength of schedule, and margin of victory.

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Top Four Seeds

These four slots are reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions. Even if each of the four teams in the final College Football Playoff rankings came from the some conference, only one would receive a first-round bye.

1. Georgia (SEC champ): The nation’s top team in the On3 Massey Ratings resides in Athens, Ga. The Georgia Bulldogs own the Masey No. 2 offense and No. 1 defense after clobbering Clemson 34-3 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Bulldogs have a tough schedule ahead with road games at Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss — but UGA is still the favorite to win the SEC.

2. Michigan (Big Ten champ): The defending national champs got off to slow start in week one but eventually pulled away from Fresno State for the 30-10 win. The Wolverines, led by new head coach Sherrone Moore, face a stiff battle at home this week against the Texas Longhorns. Michigan will also have to travel to Ohio State for its annual season-ending rivalry game, but the Maize and Blue currently sit first in the Big Ten in the Massey Ratings with a top-10 offense and defense.

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3. Kansas State (Big 12 champ): Currently No. 14 in the nation in the On3 Massey Ratings, Kansas State is the top-rated team in the Big 12 and a favorite to win the conference come December. K-State opened with a 41-6 win over UT Martin and will head to New Orleans this Saturday for a tough road test against Tulane. At just 19 years old, Avery Johnson leads the team at quarterback and found the end zone twice through the air in week one.

4. Louisville (ACC champ): Miami earned headlines in week one with its dominant win over Florida, but Louisville remains the top-rated team in the Massey Ratings after a 62-0 shutout win over Austin Peay on Saturday behind Tyler Shough’s four touchdown passes. The Cardinals face Jacksonville State this week before its first true test against Georgia Tech on Sept. 21. Games against Notre Dame, Miami and Clemson loom in the future.

At-Large Bids

The seven at-large bids to the College Football Playoff can come from any conference. These teams did not win their conference championship games, thus did not earn a first-round bye. However, the four highest-ranked teams to not receive a bye will get to play their first-round games at home or at a venue of their choosing.

5. Alabama: The No. 2 team in the nation in the On3 Massey Ratings, Alabama’s first game under new head coach Kalen DeBoer did not disappoint. Quarterback Jalen Milroe threw three touchdown passes and ran into the end zone for two more in a 63-0 drubbing of Western Kentucky. The Tide will host USF this week before heading north to take on Wisconsin.

6. Ohio State: A common pick to win the national title this season, Ohio State ranks No. 4 nationally and No. 2 in the Big Ten in the On3 Massey Ratings. The Buckeyes started slowly against Akron in week one before pulling away for a blowout 52-6 victory. True freshman wideout Jeremiah Smith caught six passes for 92 yards while the Buckeyes defense added two touchdowns of their own. Ohio State’s first real test will come at home against Iowa on Oct. 5.

7. Penn State: Penn State walked out of Morgantown with one of the most impressive wins of the weekend — a 34-12 weather-delayed victory over West Virginia. The Nittany Lions offense looked new and improved with explosive playmaking ability. Drew Allar connected with Trey Wallace from 50 yards out to open the scoring and Nick Singleton kicked off the third quarter with a 40-yard rushing touchdown. Penn State plays Ohio State and USC this season but avoids Michigan.

8. Notre Dame: Maybe the best win of the opening weekend, Notre Dame went into College Stations and knocked off Texas A&M 23-13. The Irish defense was stifling and forced two Aggies turnovers. Notre Dame is favored to go 12-0, per the On3 Massey Ratings, but is ineligible for a first-round bye due to its independent status.

9. Texas: Texas spread the ball all over the field in its 52-0 win over Colorado State in week one. Starting quarterback Quinn Ewers threw three touchdown passes and backup Arch Manning scored once on the ground and once through the air. Freshman running back Jerrick Gibson led the team in rushing and also found the end zone. Texas will head into the lion’s den this week with a road showdown with Michigan at the Big House. Oklahoma is of course on the schedule, as is Georgia, as the Longhorns will battle for an SEC title.

10. Oregon: Another common pick to win the national title heading into the season, Oregon struggled mightily against FCS Idaho in week one. The Vandals pulled within three points midway through the fourth quarter before the Ducks added a touchdown with 5:36 to go. Oklahoma transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel lit up the stat sheet, finishing 41-of-49 passing for 380 yards and a pair of scores, but the Oregon offensive line allowed three sacks. Boise State comes to town this Saturday and games against Ohio State and Michigan will define the Ducks’ quest for its first Big Ten championship.

11. Oklahoma: Oklahoma just continues to get better under head coach Brent Venables. After a 6-7 season in 2022, the Sooners went 10-3 last year and currently rate as the No. 9 team in the country in the Massey Ratings. Purdue transfer Deion Burks caught three touchdown passes in Oklahoma’s week one 51-3 win over Temple. The Sooners play Houston this week before a tough stretch of Tulane, Tennessee, Auburn and Texas.

Group of 5

The new College Football Playoff format dictates that the five highest-ranked conference champions will earn an auto-bid to the postseason. With four Power conferences, that usually will mean room for one Group of 5 team — however there is no limit to Group of 5 bids if multiple programs find themselves ranked highly come December.

12. Boise State: Boise State played in one of the most exciting games of the weekend, beating Georgia Southern 56-45. Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty ran for a whopping 267 yards and six touchdowns on Saturday. Sire Gaines added another 110 rushing yards in what totaled as a 371-yard day for the Boise State run game. The Broncos’ playoff resume could earn a major boost this weekend if they are able to pull off the road upset against Oregon, which struggled in week one.

Projected Bracket

No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 1 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Alabama
Winner faces No. 4 Louisville in the Peach Bowl

No. 10 Oregon at No. 7 Penn State
Winner faces No. 2 Michigan in the Rose Bowl

No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Ohio State
Winners faces No. 3 Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl

On the Bubble

Power Conference Bubble teams: Ole Miss, USC, Tennessee, Washington

Group of 5 Bubble Teams: Tulane, James Madison, UNLV, Memphis