College Football Playoff Predictions: Massey Ratings projection after Week 2
The season is only two (full) weeks in, but it’s never too early to start talking about the College Football Playoff and making some early predictions.
After an exciting Week 1, the second weekend again didn’t disappoint with some major top-25 showdowns, a dominating performance from Texas, and a massive upset for Notre Dame at home in South Bend.
With plenty of games to be played before conference championship weekend, the On3 Massey Ratings give us a glimpse of what the new 12-team College Football Playoff format could look like come December.
The On3 Massey Ratings – which were officially used during the BCS era and have generated high school sports team rankings since 1995 – rank sports teams by analyzing game outcomes, strength of schedule, and margin of victory.
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Top Four Seeds
These four slots are reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions. Even if each of the four teams in the final College Football Playoff rankings came from the some conference, only one would receive a first-round bye.
1. Georgia (SEC champion)
The Bulldogs remained in the No. 1 spot after a methodical 48-3 domination of an overmatched Tennessee Tech squad in Week 2. The strength of schedule takes a significant jump this week though, as they’ll head to Kentucky to face a ‘Cats squad licking it wounds after a beatdown by South Carolina.
2. Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes are in a spot that was previously occupied by arch rival Michigan before the Wolverines were handled 31-12 by Texas. The Buckeyes have easily taken care of Akron and Western Michigan in back-to-back weeks and will welcome Marshall to Columbus this weekend.
3. Kansas State (Big 12 champion)
Avery Johnson and Co. got a very tough test from Tulane on Saturday and escaped with a 34-27 victory behind three TDs from their standout quarterback. A huge Big 12 showdown against top-20 Arizona waits this weekend — a game that has some major early conference and playoff implications to it.
4. Clemson (ACC champion)
After an embarrassing 34-3 loss to Georgia on opening weekend, the Tigers responded with a resounding 66-20 victory over Appalachian State on Saturday. The get-right game was exactly what they needed ahead of a big ACC opener showdown with N.C. State in two weeks.
At-Large Bids
The seven at-large bids to the College Football Playoff can come from any conference. These teams did not win their conference championship games, thus did not earn a first-round bye. However, the four highest-ranked teams to not receive a bye will get to play their first-round games at home or at a venue of their choosing.
5. Texas
No program had a more impressive win over the weekend than the Longhorns’ 31-12 victory that felt even more lopsided than the score indicates. For the time being, they’ll sit behind Georgia as the second-best team in the SEC with those two scheduled to meet on October 19.
6. Alabama
For a second straight year, the Crimson Tide struggled early with an upstart USF squad before ultimately pulling away late to win 42-16. Alabama’s offense has some questions to answer in the coming weeks, and will have two tough tests at Wisconsin and home against Georgia over the next two weeks.
7. Penn State
After a big win over West Virginia in Week 1, the Nittany Lions barely squeaked out a win over Bowling Green in a less-than-impressive performance. They’ll get Kent State this weekend before they host a 2-0 Illinois squad coming off a big upset win over Kansas.
8. Tennessee
No team has been more dominant early in the season than the Vols, who thrashed a previously ranked NC State team 51-10 in Charlotte. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has established himself as a legitimate Heisman contender. And more than that, Tennessee’s defense is playing like one of the best units in the country.
9. Michigan
The Wolverines’ offensive woes caught up to them this time, with Texas controlling their matchup in Ann Arbor for nearly the full 60 minutes. Questions loom about what they can do with their quarterback situation, and a very talented defense can only cover those deficiencies for so long.
10. Oregon
Following an ugly Week 1 win over FCS Idaho, the Ducks didn’t do anything to dispel their doubters against Boise State. They ultimately snuck out with a 37-34 win, but were gashed by the Broncos’ running game and have lots of questions to answer with a highly contentious rivalry game against Oregon State looming on this Saturday.
11. Ole Miss
The Rebels have dominated in their first two games against overmatched opponents, outscoring them 128-3. A game Wake Forest team will host them this weekend in Winston-Salem in what should be their first test of any kind this season.
Group of 5
The new College Football Playoff format dictates that the five highest-ranked conference champions will earn an auto-bid to the postseason. With four Power conferences, that usually will mean room for one Group of 5 team — however there is no limit to Group of 5 bids if multiple programs find themselves ranked highly come December.
12. Memphis
The Tigers have a massive opportunity this weekend on the road against a reeling Florida State squad. They’ve easily handled Troy and North Alabama, but a win over the Seminoles — even a very disappointing version of them — would be massive toward their hopes of securing the G5 spot in the playoff.
Projected Bracket
No. 9 Michigan at No. 8 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 1 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl
No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Texas
Winner faces No. 4 Clemson in the Peach Bowl
No. 10 Oregon at No. 7 Penn State
Winner faces No. 2 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Alabama
Winners faces No. 3 Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl
On the Bubble
Power Conference Bubble teams: USC, Oklahoma, Utah, Washington
Group of 5 Bubble Teams: Boise State, San Jose State, UNLV, Tulane