College Football Playoff Predictions: Massey Ratings projection after week 3

Storylines are beginning to form and contenders are beginning to emerge three weeks through the 2024 college football season.

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Week 3 saw the likes of Kansas State, Alabama and Ole Miss deliver statement Power Four victories, while Georgia survived on the road at Kentucky.

With the bulk of the season still en route, the On3 Massey Ratings give us a glimpse of what the new 12-team College Football Playoff format could look like come December. Teams

The On3 Massey Ratings – which were officially used during the BCS era and have generated high school sports team rankings since 1995 – rank sports teams by analyzing game outcomes, strength of schedule, and margin of victory.

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Top Four Seeds

These four slots are reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions. Even if each of the four teams in the final College Football Playoff rankings came from the some conference, only one would receive a first-round bye.

1. Georgia (SEC champion)
It was anything but easy for Georgia last Saturday in Lexington, but the Bulldogs found a way and survived Kentucky 13-12 to improve to 3-0. Despite the nervy performance, UGA remained No. 1 in the Massey Ratings and is still tabbed as the nation’s top defense. The Dawgs are idle this week, but a titanic clash in Tuscaloosa against Alabama looms on Sept. 28.

2. Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes have cruised thus far, outscoring Akron and Western Michigan 108-6. Coming off an early bye week, Ohio State returns to Ohio Stadium this Saturday to host Marshall before getting on the road for the first time later this month to take on Michigan State. The Buckeyes remain the favorite to come out on top in the Big Ten.

3. Kansas State (Big 12 champion)
In the national spotlight last Friday, Kansas State delivered a major statement in its 31-7 thrashing of Arizona. QB Avery Johnson and the Wildcats already have two impressive wins under their belt and will look to make it three when they head to Provo to officially open Big 12 play at BYU on Saturday. K-State checks in at No. 10 overall in the Massey Ratings this week.

4. Miami (ACC champion)
Since obliterating Florida in Gainesville to open the season, Miami has continued to look dominant on both sides of the football. The Hurricanes splattered Florida A&M and Ball State, allowing a combined 9 points in the two wins. Before opening ACC play later this month, the Canes will get back on the road and make the quick trip to Tampa to take on a feisty USF squad this Saturday at Raymond James Stadium.

At-Large Bids

The seven at-large bids to the College Football Playoff can come from any conference. These teams did not win their conference championship games, thus did not earn a first-round bye. However, the four highest-ranked teams to not receive a bye will get to play their first-round games at home or at a venue of their choosing.

5. Alabama
After struggling with USF, Alabama left no doubts last weekend, waltzing out of Madison with an emphatic 42-10 win over Wisconsin. From QB Jalen Milroe to star freshman WR Ryan Williams, the Crimson Tide looked lethal under Kalen DeBoer and Co. Bama will also now enjoy a bye week and some extra preparation for its home bout against Georgia on Sept. 28.

6. Texas
Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning, it didn’t matter who the quarterback was for the Longhorns last weekend as they cruised past UTSA for a 56-7 victory to improve to 3-0. With a win over Michigan under its belt, Texas sits at No. 3 overall in the Massey Ratings and will welcome Louisiana Monroe to Austin this weekend as Ewers recovers from an abdominal injury.

7. Tennessee
Tennessee’s offense continues to look potent behind QB Nico Iamaleava and a cast of athletes. After a convincing 41-point win on NC State in Charlotte, the Vols showed no mercy to Kent State last Saturday, defeating the Golden Flashes 71-0. National championship buzz is building in Knoxville as a crucial SEC tilt at Oklahoma awaits on Saturday in Norman.

8. Oregon
After opening the season with a pair of unconvincing wins, Oregon finally kicked things into another gear last weekend, rolling over rival Oregon State in Corvallis to the tune of a 49-14 victory. The Ducks are on a bye this week and will then get back on the road to finish September in Westwood against UCLA. The Oct. 12 matchup against Ohio State in Eugene continues to look like the biggest regular season game of the year.

9. Penn State
Penn State struggled with Bowling Green in its second game of the season but had last week to recoup and gear up for Big Ten play. Up first, though, is one more duel against the MAC, as Kent State will make the trip to Happy Valley this week. The Nittany Lions check in at No. 7 overall in the Massey Ratings.

10. Ole Miss
The Rebels passed their first test of the season with flying colors, bulldozing Wake Forest 40-6 in Winston-Salem. Ole Miss has now outscored its opponents 168-9 so far in 2024, checking in with a top-10 offense and defense in the Massey Ratings. Georgia Southern heads to Oxford this weekend before Kentucky does the same to begin SEC play for Lane Kiffin and Co.

11. Michigan
Michigan continues to search for answers at the QB position as another big game awaits in Ann Arbor this weekend. The Wolverines host USC in a crucial Big Ten clash that could likely carry playoff contention implications. After losing to Texas in week two, Michigan semi-handled Arkansas State for a 28-18 win last week.

Group of 5

The new College Football Playoff format dictates that the five highest-ranked conference champions will earn an auto-bid to the postseason. With four Power conferences, that usually will mean room for one Group of 5 team — however there is no limit to Group of 5 bids if multiple programs find themselves ranked highly come December.

12. Memphis
While the headlines surrounding Memphis’ 20-12 win in Tallahassee over Florida State last weekend were focused on the Seminoles’ horrid 0-3 start, the victory helped stamp the Tigers as a legitimate contender to earn the No. 12 seed in the inaugural 12-team playoff. Now 3-0 with sights set on running the table, Memphis will look to avoid a hangover this week in Annapolis when they take on Navy.

Projected Bracket

No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Winner faces No. 1 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl

No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Alabama
Winner faces No. 4 Miami in the Peach Bowl

No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 2 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl

No. 11 Michigan at No. 6 Texas
Winner faces No. 3 Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl

On the Bubble

Power Conference Bubble Teams: Oklahoma, USC, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State

Group of 5 Bubble Teams: UNLV, Boise State, Fresno State, San Jose State