College Football Playoff Predictions: Massey Ratings projection after week 5

Now five weeks into the 2024 college football season, the cream is beginning to rise to the top.

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Week 5 of the season delivered an all-time clash that saw Alabama fend off Georgia in Tuscaloosa. The likes of Penn State, Notre Dame and Oklahoma also picked up crucial victories as the calendar begins to flip to October.

As conference play around the nation continues to ramp up, the On3 Massey Ratings give us a glimpse of what the new 12-team College Football Playoff format could look like come December. 

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Top Four Seeds

These four slots are reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions. Even if each of the four teams in the final College Football Playoff rankings came from the some conference, only one would receive a first-round bye.

1. Alabama (SEC champion)
Kalen DeBoer’s first taste of SEC action was a rollercoaster. The Crimson Tide jumped out to a 28-0 lead over Georgia inside Bryant-Denny Stadium, only for the Bulldogs to roar back late in the second half. The SEC juggernauts traded haymakers, but it was the home team that avoided what would’ve been an immense collapse and pulled out a 41-34 win. Preseason questions surrounding Alabama have surely been answered throughout its 4-0 start and it now checks in at No. 1 in the Massey Ratings. Jalen Milroe, Ryan Williams and Co. will look to avoid a hangover in Nashville against fiesty Vanderbilt this Saturday.

2. Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
After cruising through its cushy opening to the 2024 season, Ohio State began Big Ten play with a cool, calm and collected 38-7 win over Michigan State in East Lansing over the weekend. The 4-0 Buckeyes are yet to be tested in the eyes of many as the Oct. 12 clash at Oregon continues to loom. Before that trip, though, OSU returns to Ohio Stadium to host Iowa, the No. 25 team in the Massey Ratings, this Saturday. The Hawkeyes will bring an opposing defense to the table once again, though the Buckeyes, ranked No. 4 overall, are predicted to win by 20 points.

3. Iowa State (Big 12 champion)
The Big 12 auto bid continues to look up for grabs through the first five weeks of the season, but it’s Iowa State that checks in atop the conference this week following a 20-0 shutout on the road against Houston. The Cyclones claimed their marquee win over rival Iowa on Sept. 7 and have allowed just 7 points since. Currently projected to win each of its next six games, Iowa State is now No. 10 overall in the Massey Ratings, thanks to its top-10 defense. The 4-0 Cyclones host Baylor this weekend.

4. Miami (ACC champion)
A controversial finish inside Hard Rock Stadium on Friday night saw Miami come away with a 38-34 win over Virginia Tech to improve to 5-0 on the season. The Hurricanes overcame adversity for the first time in 2024 and are now gearing up for a cross-country road trip to Berkeley to take on California this weekend. College GameDay will be in attendance as Cam Ward and the Canes begin a big month of football that also includes a matchup at No. 22 Louisville. Miami checks in at No. 17 overall in the Massey Ratings this week.

At-Large Bids

The seven at-large bids to the College Football Playoff can come from any conference. These teams did not win their conference championship games, thus did not earn a first-round bye. However, the four highest-ranked teams to not receive a bye will get to play their first-round games at home or at a venue of their choosing.

5. Texas
It wasn’t as smooth as many predicted it would be, but Texas handled Mississippi State 35-13 to open SEC play with a victory. The 5-0 Longhorns await the return of quarterback Quinn Ewers, though Arch Manning has also looked the part thus far. Texas’ road win over Michigan earlier this month continues to hold plenty of weight, and it will look for a second marquee victory this season on Oct. 12, when the Horns and Oklahoma meet at the Cotton Bowl for the first time as members of the SEC.

6. Georgia
Early on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, it looked like Georgia was going to get ran out of the stadium in embarrassing fashion. Of course, Kirby Smart was able to rally the troops as the Dawgs nearly pulled off what would’ve been a miraculous comeback victory. Feeling defeat in the regular season for the first time since 2020, 3-1 UGA now finds itself at No. 3 in the Massey Ratings, though its path to the playoff is still very clear. It returns to Athens this weekend to host Auburn for another edition of the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.

7. Tennessee
After beginning SEC play with a 10-point road win over Oklahoma two weeks ago, Tennessee was idle over the weekend as it prepares to get back on the road this Saturday to take on Arkansas. The Volunteers check in at No. 5 nationally this week as their schedule only gets tougher. After returning from Fayetteville, the Vols will begin a crucial four-game home stand that will feature Florida, Alabama, Kentucky and Mississippi State.

8. Oregon
Though Oregon hasn’t met the lofty expectations many have set for it so far in 2024, the Ducks are undefeated at 4-0 following a 21-point win on the road over UCLA to begin Big Ten play. Dan Lanning’s squad is the No. 6 overall team in the Massey Ratings this week. Many questions about QB Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks will be answered on Oct. 12 when they host Ohio State for one of the biggest games of the season.

9. Penn State
Beaver Stadium was rocking on Saturday night as Penn State handed Illinois its first loss of the season in a 21-7 defensive battle. The 4-0 Nittany Lions find themselves in a familiar position: Undefeated early as the massive games on the schedule await. James Franklin’s bunch is set to host UCLA this weekend before heading out to Los Angeles for a tough road test against No. 12 USC — which currently finds itself right on the outside looking in at the CFP — on Oct. 12.

10. Michigan
Michigan has continued to grind since losing to Texas at home in week two and now has two big home wins in-conference over No. 12 USC and Minnesota. The Wolverines continue to look shaky under center and were only able to beat the Golden Gophers by 3 points over the weekend. Regardless, Sherrone Moore’s team is 4-1 and still has everything to play for this fall. They head to Seattle to take on Washington this Saturday.

11. Notre Dame
The Sept. 7 loss at home to Northern Illinois will remain a stain on Notre Dame’s résumé for the entirety of the 2024 season, but the Fighting Irish now also have a pair of ranked victories under their belt. After defeating Texas A&M to open the season, ND outlasted No. 22 Louisville for a 31-24 win in South Bend over the weekend. The 4-1 Irish check in at No. 9 nationally this week and still have a path to an at-large bid, though the room for error is miniscule. They are idle this week and will return to Notre Dame Stadium on Oct. 12 to host Stanford.

Group of 5

The new College Football Playoff format dictates that the five highest-ranked conference champions will earn an auto-bid to the postseason. With four Power conferences, that usually will mean room for one Group of 5 team — however there is no limit to Group of 5 bids if multiple programs find themselves ranked highly come December.

12. UNLV
Despite ranking No. 37 in the Massey Ratings this week, UNLV still holds the top Group of Five spot entering October. Controversy surrounding former starting QB Matthew Sluka placed the Rebels in the national spotlight for the wrong reasons last week, but Barry Odom’s squad responded with a 59-14 trouncing of Fresno State to improve to 4-0 over the weekend. The Rebels have wins over Power Four programs Houston and Kansas, and another major opportunity will come on Friday night when Syracuse makes the trip to Las Vegas.

Projected Bracket

No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Winner faces No. 1 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl

No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Texas
Winner faces No. 4 Miami in the Peach Bowl

No. 10 Michigan at No. 7 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 2 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl

No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Georgia
Winner faces No. 3 Iowa State in the Fiesta Bowl

On the Bubble

Power Conference Bubble Teams: Oklahoma, USC, BYU, Kansas State

Group of 5 Bubble Teams: Boise State, James Madison, Tulane, Memphis