College Football Playoff Predictions: Massey Ratings projection after week 6

Week No. 6 of the 2024 college football season delivered one of the more memorable Saturdays in years.

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Vanderbilt pulled off a historic upset of No. 1 Alabama. Tennessee and Missouri each fell, shaking up things further in the SEC. Ditto for Michigan and USC in the Big Ten. Six ranked teams lost, creating havoc as the College Football Playoff picture continues to get murkier.

As the dust settles and a monumental slate of games looms this coming weekend, the On3 Massey Ratings give us an updated look at what the new 12-team College Football Playoff format could look like come December. 

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Top Four Seeds

These four slots are reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions. Even if each of the four teams in the final College Football Playoff rankings came from the some conference, only one would receive a first-round bye.

1. Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
Amidst the chaos on Saturday, Ohio State entered halftime up just 7-0 against Iowa and its pesky defense. The Buckeyes turned things up a notch in the second half, however, as quarterback Will Howard and Co. put up 21 unanswered in the third quarter, leading to a comfortable 35-7 win. Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka hauled in three TD receptions as OSU improved to 5-0 (2-0 Big Ten). With Alabama’s loss, the Buckeyes take over the top spot in the Massey Ratings ahead of their clash at Oregon in just six days.

2. Texas (SEC champion)
Given the slew of surprising scores this weekend, Texas was likely overjoyed at the timing of its bye week. The 5-0 (1-0 SEC) Longhorns also hopped Alabama and now hold the projected SEC auto-bid. This Saturday, Texas and Oklahoma will meet at the Cotton Bowl in the Red River Rivalry for the first time as members of the SEC. Quarterback Quinn Ewers is expected to be back under center after missing the last two games due to injury.

3. Iowa State (Big 12 champion)
The Cyclones remained undefeated with a 43-21 win at home over Baylor this weekend, pushing them to 5-0 (2-0 Big 12) as the Big 12 auto-bid continues to look up for grabs heading into the halfway point of the season. Ranked No. 9 overall by the Massey Ratings, Iowa State has a favorable schedule the rest of the way. It gets back on the road next weekend and will head to Morgantown to take on a game West Virginia team riding a two-game winning streak.

4. Miami (ACC champion)
Miami should consider the ‘Cardiac Canes’ as a potential nickname moving forward in 2024. Mario Cristobal’s bunch looked dead in the water at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley late Saturday night, but QB Cam Ward led a 25-point comeback that was capped off with a game-winning touchdown pass to Elijah Arroyo with less than 30 seconds to go. The Hurricanes stunned Cal 39-38 and kept their undefeated season alive, one week after barely avoiding disaster at the buzzer against Virginia Tech in Coral Gables. A welcomed bye week awaits the No. 14 team in the Massey Ratings, which will now prepare for another road trip, this time at Louisville on Oct. 19.

At-Large Bids

The seven at-large bids to the College Football Playoff can come from any conference. These teams did not win their conference championship games, thus did not earn a first-round bye. However, the four highest-ranked teams to not receive a bye will get to play their first-round games at home or at a venue of their choosing.

5. Georgia
Georgia responded well from its heartbreaking defeat to Alabama last week by handling Auburn 31-13 in Athens. The Bulldogs still have everything to play for at 4-1 (2-1 SEC), though the road ahead remains daunting. They’ll host Mississippi State this coming weekend before a brutal four-game stretch against Texas, Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee begins on Oct. 19 in Austin against the Longhorns.

6. Alabama
There’s having a hangover from a big win, then there’s allowing 40 points to Vanderbilt in one of the biggest upset losses in recent memory. The latter is what Kalen DeBoer and Alabama now have to try and bounce back from after the Commodores pulled off the unthinkable and beat the Crimson Tide 40-35. Still No. 4 in the Massey Ratings and 4-1 (1-1 SEC) on the season, Bama can right the ship, though its margin for error is now awfully slim. The Tide host South Carolina next before heading to Knoxville for a massive showdown at Tennessee on Oct. 19.

7. Oregon
Oregon took care of business on Friday night, rolling past Michigan State for a 31-10 win, setting up one of the most important regular season games of the year this coming weekend against Ohio State. Now 5-0 (2-0 Big Ten), the Ducks have looked shaky at times this season, but their offense has managed 30-plus points in four straight games. Dan Lanning and Co. can cement their status as a true CFP contender with a big performance against the Buckeyes in six days at Autzen Stadium.

8. Penn State
The Nittany Lions aren’t wowing anyone with their performances so far this season, but they check in at No. 6 nationally this week in the Massey Ratings and are now the only FBS team to start 5-0 in each of the last four seasons. Penn State defeated UCLA 27-11 on Saturday and have now allowed just 18 points in its last three outings. It now gears up to head to Los Angeles to take on a USC team that’s coming off a tough loss at Minnesota.

9. Tennessee
In a rarity for a Josh Heupel-led offense, Tennessee was never able to muster much of anything with the ball in its hands on Saturday night in Fayetteville as Arkansas pulled off a major 19-14 upset victory. Like the other SEC teams at the top of the rankings, the Volunteers still have a clear path to the CFP, but they likely have to play near-perfect football from here on out. They now return to Neyland Stadium and won’t get back on the road until the middle of November. Florida comes to Rocky Top next with Alabama, Kentucky and Mississippi State to follow.

10. Ole Miss
Cocktober be damned. After losing to Kentucky in Oxford, Ole Miss got right back on the horse and easily handled South Carolina for a 27-3 road win in Columbia. The Rebels also find themselves in the 5-1 (1-1 SEC) boat with plenty to play for moving forward. Up next is a trip to Baton Rouge to take on a puzzling LSU team coming off a bye week.

11. Notre Dame
Anyone else remember Notre Dame’s earth-shattering loss to Northern Illinois? That now feels like a millennium ago thanks to this weekend’s absurd slew of results. The Fighting Irish are 4-1 with wins over Texas A&M and Louisville. The remaining schedule doesn’t look as nefarious as it did in the preseason — though undefeated Navy and Army will both head to South Bend in the coming weeks. Marcus Freeman’s team will likely be favored in each of its final seven regular season games, beginning with a home game against Stanford in six days.

Group of 5

The new College Football Playoff format dictates that the five highest-ranked conference champions will earn an auto-bid to the postseason. With four Power conferences, that usually will mean room for one Group of 5 team — however there is no limit to Group of 5 bids if multiple programs find themselves ranked highly come December.

12. Boise State
While the service academies are rightfully receiving their flowers and UNLV has been the mid-major making the headlines as of late, it’s Boise State that’s now projected to snag the last auto-bid, mostly thanks to Heisman-hopeful running back Ashton Jeanty. Behind their star workhorse, the Broncos are averaging 50.6 points per game and are 5-1 on the season, with the lone loss being a 3-point defeat to likely CFP entrant Oregon. Running the table in the Mountain West won’t be easy, but Boise is certainly capable of doing so. It heads to Hawaii next, though a date in Las Vegas against UNLV later this month looms very large.

Projected Bracket

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Penn State
Winner faces No. 1 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia
Winner faces No. 4 Miami in the Peach Bowl

No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Oregon
Winner faces No. 2 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl

No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Alabama
Winner faces No. 3 Iowa State in the Fiesta Bowl

On the Bubble

Power Conference Bubble Teams: Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, BYU

Group of 5 Bubble Teams: Tulane, Memphis, Navy, UNLV