College Football Playoff predictions: New SEC, ACC champs projected, Ole Miss out in latest Bracketology

Saturday’s SEC slate started with a shocker and ended with a thriller, and both games played a big role in reorganizing the projected College Football Playoff.

Kentucky, looking very much like the team that pushed Georgia to the limit and not the team that got crushed by South Carolina, went to Oxford and beat Ole Miss 20-17. That left the Rebels 0-1 in the SEC with their best win so far against Georgia Southern. So I dropped the Rebels out of the projected bracket. They can certainly play their way back in beginning this week at South Carolina, but at this point in the season we can’t just assume they should be in based on their roster and guessing at how they’ll handle their schedule.

Meanwhile, Alabama jumped on Georgia, gave up that lead and came back thanks to a freshman making one of the best touchdown catches you’ll ever see. It was the best win of the season anyone has had so far — Georgia’s win against Clemson might be No. 2 — and it vaulted the Crimson Tide to a new place in the the bracket.

The Top Four Seeds

Remember, these four slots are reserved only for conference champions. So don’t freak out if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams at No. 1 and No. 2, then the rules don’t allow for another team from either of those leagues until No. 5. The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game.

1. Alabama (SEC champ): The Crimson Tide let Georgia come back from a massive deficit, but they also put Georgia in a 28-point hole. Alabama also answered Georgia’s go-ahead score with an immediate Jalen Milroe-to-Ryan Williams touchdown. A team that can do what Alabama did to Georgia for a half — and then can engineer a comeback win in the same game — can win the national title.

2. Ohio State (Big Ten champ): The Buckeyes need a chance like Alabama had Saturday to prove what they can do against elite competition. That probably comes Oct. 12 against Oregon. But Iowa should provide a better test next week than what Ohio State has seen so far.

3. Clemson (ACC champ): The Tigers keep pounding opponents. Saturday, they beat Stanford 40-14. The season-opening loss to Georgia is still a stain on the schedule, but Clemson has done all it can possibly do since. And if the Tigers keep playing like this, they can win the ACC and snag a first-round bye.

4. BYU (Big 12 champ): I have no idea who to pick as the Big 12 champ. Arizona won at Utah on Saturday, but we’ve seen the Wildcats get drilled by Kansas State (in a game that didn’t count in the conference standings). Kansas State beat Oklahoma State on Saturday, but we’ve seen those Wildcats get drilled by BYU. Colorado is 2-0 in Big 12 play and looked as good as it has looked in the Deion Sanders era Saturday at UCF. Iowa State is undefeated. But for this week I’m going with BYU, which went to Baylor, took a huge lead and hung on for the win. BYU’s non-conference win against SMU looks even better as well, but this spot is all about who wins the league. This race is going to produce some wild results every week, and I can’t wait to watch it play out.

The At-Larges

These teams didn’t win their conference, but they’re in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 host first-round games on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 go on the road.

5. Texas: The Longhorns looked sluggish for most of three quarters against Mississippi State, which probably is the worst team in the SEC. But Texas got on track, and now starts the countdown to the Oklahoma game on Oct. 12. That also should mark the return of Quinn Ewers as QB1.

6. Tennessee: The Volunteers were off Saturday after winning at Oklahoma. Next up is a trip to Arkansas. The Razorbacks have lost heartbreakers to Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, and they remain dangerous.

7. Georgia: The Bulldogs made an incredible comeback in Tuscaloosa, and that’s why they remain in the group that will open the CFP at home. But the issues that allowed Alabama to jump on Georgia 28-0 in less than 18 minutes of game time need to be addressed. With games remaining at Texas, at Ole Miss and home against Tennessee, Georgia can’t afford another period like that.

8. Oregon: The Ducks opened Big Ten play with a win at UCLA. They face Michigan State on Friday in their first conference game against an old-line Big Ten team. Spartans coach Jonathan Smith is quite familiar with Oregon after spending the past six seasons at Oregon State. The Ducks need to make sure they aren’t looking ahead to Ohio State.

9. Penn State: Illinois, as expected, dragged the Nittany Lions into a brawl. But Penn State’s defense was more than up to the task, and the offense awoke in the second half. The Nittany Lions face UCLA before the three-game stretch (USC, Wisconsin, Ohio State) that likely will define their season.

10. Miami: The Hurricanes won in controversial fashion against Virginia Tech on Friday when officials initially ruled a Hokies Hail Mary to be a touchdown catch and then reversed the call moments later. If Virginia Tech can push Miami at home, upcoming games against Cal and Louisville could be losable. Plus, the way Clemson is playing suggests the Tigers could win a hypothetical ACC title game matchup with the Hurricanes. But if Miami keeps winning, it’s entirely possible the Hurricanes (or Tigers) could lose that matchup and still make the CFP.

11. Kansas State: Will we get a second Big 12 program in the CFP? That will depend on whether enough teams in the league can avoid surprising losses. The Wildcats have one of those (at BYU), but they also have excellent wins against Arizona and Oklahoma State. We won’t see Kansas State again until Oct. 12, but that will be an intriguing matchup with Colorado, which hammered UCF on Saturday. Will a Big Ten or SEC team win its way into this spot between now and then? Maybe. The teams that would be ranked between 11 and 20 all seem pretty similar at the moment.

First (Power) Four Out: Missouri, Arizona, Utah, Notre Dame

Group of Five representative

The rules don’t limit how many Group of 5 teams can make the tournament, but common sense suggests that most years only the highest ranked Group of 5 champion will make the bracket, and it will make it as the No. 12 seed because it will be ranked lower than 12.

12. UNLV: The Rebels made the biggest off-the-field news last week when quarterback Matthew Sluka left the team over an NIL dispute. I wondered at the time whether UNLV officials were OK letting Sluka walk because they didn’t think he was that much better than backup Hajj-Malik Williams, who transferred from Campbell and who worked with the first team all spring and summer. It turns out the offense worked great under Williams, who completed 13 of 16 passes for 182 yards and three touchdowns and ran 12 times for 119 yards and a touchdown in a 59-14 win against Fresno State that also featured a pick-six and a blocked punt that UNLV scooped up for a touchdown. The Rebels responded to their QB1 leaving by rallying around the new QB1 and playing their best all-around game. No one was happier than star receiver Ricky White III, who caught 10 passes for 127 yards and two touchdowns after combining for five catches for 15 yards in UNLV’s two FBS wins with Sluka playing.

Group of 5 Contenders: Army, Navy, Boise State, Liberty

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Winner faces No. 1 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl

No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Texas
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Georgia
Winner faces No. 2 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl

No. 11 Kansas State at No. 6 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 3 Clemson in the Peach Bowl

Remaining Bubble Teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subsets: Potential at-larges and potential win-and-in conference champs. It should go without saying that a potential at-large also is a potential conference champ. In the Big Ten and the SEC, it’s likely both teams that make the conference title game will make the CFP. That isn’t a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and it’s possible one or two teams that make those games will only have a puncher’s chance that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential At-Larges

ACC: Louisville, Pittsburgh
Big Ten: Michigan, USC, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska
Big 12: Iowa State, Utah
SEC: Missouri, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Independents: Notre Dame

Potential Win-And-In conference champs: 

ACC: SMU, Boston College
Big Ten: None
Big 12: Colorado
SEC: None

Group of Five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 league have a chance to be the highest ranked Group of 5 champ.

American Athletic Conference: Army, Navy, Memphis, Tulane
Conference USA: Liberty
MAC: Toledo
Mountain West: Boise State
Sun Belt: James Madison, Texas State