College Football Playoff Predictions: Ohio State surges back; Georgia throws up a red flag

On Tuesday, we’ll finally know something.

Oh yes, we’ll know about that. But we’ll also get a glimpse of how the College Football Playoff selection committee handles ranking teams in the era of the 12-team bracket. We don’t know if their rankings will look appreciably different from how they ranked teams in the four-team CFP era, but remember one thing.

The ranking is not the seeding.

Because of the rules for seeding in the CFP — conference champs get the top four seeds and the five highest-ranked conference champs make the tournament — the rankings and the seeding will look different. In this exercise, I’ve tried to predict how the committee will rank teams. But since I’m also trying to project what the seeds will look like, I’m attempting to guess the results of games that haven’t been played. The committee won’t be doing that.

The ranking you’ll see Tuesday will be their list of the teams they think are the nation’s best. But it will only be a snapshot of the games to this point. For instance, committee members may have watched Ole Miss demolish Arkansas and given the Rebels a boost in the ranking. You’ll notice that I don’t have Ole Miss in my projected bracket. I’m still predicting Georgia will win the SEC, though I trust the Bulldogs less after the Florida game.

For Georgia to win the SEC, they probably have to beat Ole Miss in Oxford on Saturday. If they do, that’s loss No. 3 for the Rebels and they probably don’t make the committee’s final bracket. But if Ole Miss wins Saturday, the Rebels stay alive and that result sends Georgia to a potential elimination game against Tennessee in Athens. Meanwhile, this projected bracket would look markedly different next week.

Strap in, because the next few weeks could get wild.

Top Four Seeds

Remember, these four slots are reserved only for conference champions. So don’t freak out if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams at No. 1 and No. 2, then the rules don’t allow for another team from either of those leagues until No. 5. The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game.

1. Oregon (Big Ten champ)
The Ducks lost receiver Tez Johnson to an injury, but they kept rolling Saturday with a 38-17 win at Michigan. Maryland visits Autzen Stadium next. If Oregon keeps playing the way it has the past month, it’ll cruise into the Big Ten title game.

2. Miami (ACC champ)
I probably should have placed the Hurricanes in the ACC champ spot earlier, but better late than never. Plus, I bumped the Hurricanes — who likely would be 13-0 if they’re the ACC champs — up to the No. 2 spot. It seemed a little dicey Saturday when Duke took a lead early in the second half. But Miami’s offense never seems to slow down. The Hurricanes turned a 28-25 deficit into a 53-31 win. I’m still not sure I trust Miami’s defense. But I’m not sure I fully trust any team in the SEC, either. Next up, Georgia Tech. You’d better believe Mario Cristobal will have his team take a knee if it needs to run out the clock and win the game.

3. Georgia (SEC champ)
I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Bulldogs after they wound up in a tie game with five minutes to go with a Florida team that had lost its star freshman QB in the second quarter. Georgia didn’t look nearly as dominant on the line of scrimmage as it did against Texas two weeks earlier. If the Bulldogs play at Ole Miss next week the way they played in Jacksonville, they’ll lose. But if they play the way they did two weeks earlier in Austin, they’ll win. And that’s the story of the 2024 season for Georgia and several other teams on this list.

4. BYU (Big 12 champ)
The Cougars were off this week, so they got to watch the top of the Big 12 burn around them. Iowa State lost at home to Texas Tech. Kansas State lost at Houston. The Cougars are in the driver’s seat, and now they face bitter rival Utah as a conference opponent for the first time since they played as Mountain West foes in 2010.

The At-Larges

These teams didn’t win their conference, but they’re in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 host first-round games on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 go on the road.

5. Ohio State
The Buckeyes just need to keep winning and they’ll get another shot at Oregon — this time on a neutral field. Then the teams likely would be playing for the No. 1 seed.

6. Texas
The Longhorns will get a hobbled Florida team next week. But after watching Georgia struggle Saturday, it’s doubtful Texas coaches will allow their players to take the 4-4 Gators lightly.

7. Indiana
The Hoosiers just keep crushing opponents. They fell behind Michigan State 10-0 on Saturday and won 42-10. Next up is a visit from Michigan. A win seemed like a fantasy before the season, but don’t be shocked if the Hoosiers are more than a touchdown favorite.

8. Penn State
The Nittany Lions were right there against Ohio State, but their lack of a dynamic downfield threat cost them dearly. They can play with most of the teams in this bracket, and if they can develop even a semblance of a downfield passing game in the next few weeks, they won’t be a one-and-done in the CFP.

9. Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish had the week off after beating Navy, and next they face Florida State in a game that seemed much more interesting before the season began. The stretch run for the Irish looks quite manageable.

10. Tennessee
The Volunteers probably don’t have to beat Georgia on Nov. 16 to make the CFP. And given their habit of slow starts the past few weeks, that’s good. Because if Tennessee plays against Georgia the way it did against Kentucky, Tennessee will lose. Instead of Nico Iamaleava overthrowing receivers deep, he was hitting them and they were dropping the ball. If the ball starts to stick and the Dylan Sampson-led run game and the defense remain consistent, then Tennessee can beat anyone. If it doesn’t, every remaining game could be an adventure.

11. Alabama
If I include Alabama here, it means Alabama beat LSU and eliminated the Tigers from the CFP race. So I guess this is me picking Alabama to win Saturday’s Alabama-LSU game.

First (Power) Four Out: SMU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Iowa State

Group of Five representative

The rules don’t limit how many Group of 5 teams can make the tournament, but common sense suggests that most years only the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion will make the bracket, and it will make it as the No. 12 seed because it will be ranked lower than 12.

12. Boise State
If the Broncos win out, they probably have to beat UNLV again in the Mountain West title game. They’d be 12-1 and their only loss would be a down-to-the-wire affair against current No. 1 seed Oregon in Eugene.

Group of 5 Contenders: Army, UNLV, Tulane, Louisiana

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Penn State
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Indiana
Winner faces No. 2 Miami in the Peach Bowl

No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Texas
Winner faces No. 3 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl

Remaining Bubble Teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subsets: Potential at-larges and potential win-and-in conference champs. It should go without saying that a potential at-large also is a potential conference champ. In the Big Ten and the SEC, it’s likely both teams that make the conference title game will make the CFP. That isn’t a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and one or two teams that make those games may only have a puncher’s chance that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential At-Larges

ACC: SMU, Clemson, Pittsburgh
Big Ten: Illinois
Big 12: Iowa State
SEC: LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee

Potential Win-And-In Conference Champs: 

ACC: None
Big Ten: None
Big 12: Colorado, Kansas State

SEC: None

Group of Five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 league have a chance to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 champ.

American Athletic Conference: Army, Navy, Tulane, Memphis
Conference USA: None
MAC: None
Mountain West: UNLV
Sun Belt: Louisiana