College Football Playoff predictions: Ole Miss, Alabama wins shake up bracketology

You’re probably going to see this bracket and freak out.

I’ll spoil the surprise. It doesn’t include Georgia. I was in Oxford for the Bulldogs’ unceremonious 28-10 loss to Ole Miss on Saturday and was alarmed at some of the shortcomings Georgia showed, but that’s only partly why I have the Bulldogs as the first team out.

The reason is I’m trying to project a bracket that could happen. So that’s why I don’t have Indiana right next to Ohio State. Indiana would drop if it loses to the Buckeyes in two weeks. That’s also why I moved Georgia out after Saturday’s loss. The College Football Playoff selection committee will likely have to consider a glut of two-loss SEC teams. Barring some chaos in the other leagues or involving Notre Dame, all those SEC teams aren’t going to make the field.

So I had to decide what might happen. If Georgia beats Tennessee next week, Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama, LSU and Missouri all will have two SEC losses. Texas and Texas A&M only have one apiece, but at least one of those is guaranteed to finish with two conference losses because they play Nov. 30. That’s a mess, and it’s almost impossible to predict how the committee will handle it because we don’t even know who would make the SEC title game other than the Texas-Texas A&M winner. (Unless one of them loses in the next two weeks.)

But if we fill the bracket based on the possibility that Tennessee beats Georgia in Athens, then we can make it make sense — at least for this week. If the Volunteers beat the Bulldogs, Tennessee still would have to beat Vanderbilt, but that would put the Vols in the SEC title game. If Texas were to win out, that would be the opponent. If not, the opponent likely would be decided by the tiebreaker that measures each team’s opponents’ cumulative conference winning percentages. The tied team that played the toughest SEC schedule would get the berth in the title game.

Given what we’ve seen from Georgia the past few weeks, this isn’t that far-fetched. The Bulldogs struggled to move the ball on Ole Miss, and Tennessee’s defense has been similarly stingy. The Rebels’ offense on Saturday looked better than Tennessee’s has looked of late, but if Georgia struggles to score, anything is possible.

Of course, if the Bulldogs beat the Vols, this exercise gets even messier next week…

Top Four Seeds

Remember, these four slots are reserved only for conference champions. So don’t freak out if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams at No. 1 and No. 2, then the rules don’t allow for another team from either of those leagues until No. 5. The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game.

1. Oregon (Big Ten champ)
The Ducks started slow but ran away from Maryland. Now comes a trip to Wisconsin that seemed far more daunting when we spent all summer parsing schedules.

2. Texas (SEC champ)
If the Longhorns win out, they’ll play for the SEC title. But if they were to lose to Texas A&M, they likely would find themselves in a bucket of teams near the cut line because they lack the quality wins other teams have posted. So they need to keep winning.

3. BYU (Big 12 champ)
The Cougars needed a miracle comeback to beat Utah on Saturday night. (Though Utah fans will swear forever that the only miracle was the defensive holding call against the Utes that prolonged the game.) No matter the reason, BYU remains undefeated. BYU and Colorado are the only Big 12 teams with one or zero conference losses. If they win out, they’ll play one another for the conference title. Why did BYU move up after almost losing? Because there’s a change in the projected ACC champ, and the Cougars have already beaten that team.

4. SMU (ACC champ)
The Mustangs are the beneficiary of Miami losing to Georgia Tech, but it’s quite possible they still have to play the Hurricanes for the ACC title. Pittsburgh’s loss to Virginia on Saturday means Miami and Clemson are the only ACC teams with one conference loss. (SMU has zero.) If Miami and Clemson win out, they would be subject to the ACC’s tiebreakers. With no head-to-head meeting, their records against common conference opponents would decide who makes the title game. Miami beat Louisville. Clemson lost to the Cardinals. Miami would go. This assumes SMU wins out, but if Miami-Georgia Tech taught us anything, it’s that we shouldn’t assume.

The At-Larges

These teams didn’t win their conference, but they’re in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 host first-round games on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 go on the road.

5. Ohio State
The Buckeyes thrashed Purdue 45-0 on Saturday. Now they face Northwestern in advance of the huge clash with — 2023 Andy would never believe I’m typing this — 10-0 Indiana.

6. Tennessee
The Vols have a win against Alabama buoying them, but a win against Georgia would all but guarantee a berth in the CFP. To do that, Tennessee would have to beat a Bulldogs team in desperation mode that must win to stay in the hunt.

7. Alabama
The 42-13 thrashing of LSU in a CFP elimination game served as a reminder that this Alabama team is still loaded even if it doesn’t have the same consistency it showed throughout the Nick Saban era. Jalen Milroe remains one of the nation’s most dangerous QBs.

8. Ole Miss
The Rebels played their way off the bracket for weeks and then played their way back on with a 28-10 win against Georgia on Saturday. One thing to note if Ole Miss indeed makes the playoff — the Rebels have another capable QB. When Jaxson Dart left the game briefly with an injury in the first quarter, backup Austin Simmons led a touchdown drive that looked like the ideal representation of Lane Kiffin’s offense. The new playoff format makes the season very long; teams that can thrive when the next man up enters will have an advantage.

9. Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish crushed Florida State 52-3 on Saturday, but the Seminoles are a shadow of their former selves. Notre Dame now faces a Virginia team coming off a win against Pittsburgh and follows that with the currently undefeated Army.

10. Indiana
The Hoosiers had their least dominant win of the season, but there was a time (four months ago) when a win against Michigan would have been considered pure fantasy. It wasn’t pretty, but it was real. And the Hoosiers will head to Columbus on Nov. 23 as a 10-0 team.

11. Penn State
The Nittany Lions pounded Washington on Saturday, and all they can do is keep winning and hope that going 11-1 against that schedule is better in the committee’s eyes than having two losses but more quality wins.

First (Power) Four Out: Georgia, Miami, Texas A&M, Colorado

Group of Five representative

The rules don’t limit how many Group of 5 teams can make the tournament, but common sense suggests that most years only the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion will make the bracket, and it will make it as the No. 12 seed because it will be ranked lower than 12.

12. Boise State
The Broncos squeaked by Nevada 28-21 thanks to 209 rushing yards and three touchdowns from star back Ashton Jeanty. As long as the Broncos keep winning and Army doesn’t beat Notre Dame, they should make the field.

Group of 5 Contenders: Army, UNLV, Tulane, Louisiana

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Ole Miss
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 SMU in the Peach Bowl

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Alabama
Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 3 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl

Remaining Bubble Teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subsets: Potential at-larges and potential win-and-in conference champs. It should go without saying that a potential at-large also is a potential conference champ. In the Big Ten and the SEC, it’s likely both teams that make the conference title game will make the CFP. That isn’t a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and one or two teams that make those games may only have a puncher’s chance that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential At-Larges

ACC: Miami
Big Ten: None
Big 12: None
SEC: Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M

Potential Win-And-In Conference Champs: 

ACC: None
Big Ten: None
Big 12: Colorado, Kansas State, Iowa State, Arizona State

SEC: None

Group of Five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 league have a chance to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 champ.

American Athletic Conference: Army, Navy, Tulane
Conference USA: None
MAC: None
Mountain West: UNLV
Sun Belt: Louisiana