College Football Playoff predictions: Texas rises, Oregon falls in latest bracketology

We’ve reached the “everyone stinks” portion of the college football season in record time. OK, maybe everyone doesn’t stink. But plenty of teams have already had some major flaws exposed. And that could lead to a wild, unpredictable season.

I’m glad I got the undefeated Notre Dame column out of my system last week — just in time for the @OldTakesExposed account on Twitter to scoop up the accompanying video — because the Fighting Irish dropped completely out of the bracket this week after losing to Northern Illinois. Meanwhile, Oregon struggled with Boise State even more than it struggled last week against Idaho. I imagine the Ducks will remain ranked high in the Associated Press and coaches polls, but are we sure they’re actually good? I’m going to need to see more from them at this point.

Meanwhile, Alabama struggled at home with USF before a blazing final few minutes. Oklahoma State barely survived Arkansas. Penn State had to sweat a win against Bowling Green.

During the postgame show Saturday night, a viewer asked if we’re headed for another 2007. We can only hope. That level of chaos plus a 12-team College Football Playoff would be spectacular.

The Top Four Seeds

Remember, these four slots are reserved only for conference champions. So don’t freak out if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams at No. 1 and No. 2, then the rules don’t allow for another team from either of those leagues until No. 5. The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game.

1. Ohio State (Big Ten champ): The Buckeyes made it look easy again in a 56-0 win against Western Michigan. Now they get a week off before facing Marshall.

2. Georgia (SEC champ): The Bulldogs didn’t break a sweat in a 49-3 win against Tennessee Tech, but their resume got a boost from Clemson clobbering Appalachian State 66-20. Georgia’s defense embarrassed Clemson’s offense last week, and that might have been more a product of the Bulldogs’ prowess than the Tigers’ offensive deficiences.

3. Miami (ACC champ): The Hurricanes followed their win at Florida with a 56-9 victory against Florida A&M. They face Ball State this week and then travel to USF to play a team that looked dangerous at Alabama. In other words, the Hurricanes should be plenty tuned up when they finally reach their ACC opener on a Friday against Virginia Tech on Sept. 27.

4. Utah (Big 12 champ): We’ll take Utes coach Kyle Whittingham at his word that the hand injury that knocked quarterback Cam Rising out of Utah’s win against Baylor is not that serious and Rising should be back soon. The Utes probably don’t need their QB1 to beat Utah State, but they’ll need Rising at Oklahoma State on Sept. 21. That game will help us start sorting out America’s most balanced conference. I had Kansas State in this spot for a while, but the the Wildcats struggled at Tulane. Oklahoma State needed a double-overtime thriller to beat Arkansas, but it’s also possible Arkansas is much better than the team that went 1-7 in SEC play last year. Everyone is still in the hunt and will be for a while.

The At-Larges

These teams didn’t win their conference, but they’re in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 host first-round games on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 go on the road.

5. Texas: The Longhorns annihilated Michigan, and the most impressive part was how easily they moved the ball against a Wolverines defense that we know has elite talent. The Texas offensive line showed it can be an elite unit as well. The Longhorns will have to play more complete teams that will test their defense as well, but that group also certainly passed its first major test.

6. Tennessee: The Volunteers humiliated N.C. State and made it look easy. Nico Iamaleava threw two interceptions, but that was the only blemish on an otherwise ultra-efficient day for the Tennessee offense. Iamaleava averaged 9.2 yards per attempt and threw two touchdown passes, and he and Dylan Sampson led a rushing attack that averaged 5.7 yards a carry and rolled up 249 yards. Meanwhile, the Vols’ defense held the Wolfpack to 39 rushing yards and made N.C. State quarterback Grayson McCall miserable.

7. Ole Miss: The Rebels once again looked smooth as they dispatched an overmatched opponent. Henry Parrish Jr. ran for four touchdowns, and QB Jaxson Dart averaged 14 yards per attempt. Ole Miss travels to Wake Forest this week for its first matchup against a power conference opponent.

8. Alabama: The 42-16 score of Alabama’s win against USF was not indicative of what happened in the game. The Crimson Tide struggled offensively until coaches inserted Elijah Pritchett — who they had been trying to hold out because of a minor injury — at right tackle in the fourth quarter. Alabama already was playing without injured left tackle Kadyn Proctor. The Crimson Tide are one of the most talented teams in the country, but injuries hitting the wrong position group can make them look like a different team. In the NIL/transfer portal era, even previously mega-deep teams such as Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State will be susceptible to this.

9. USC: The Trojans handled Utah State easily, which is another sign of progress. Previous Lincoln Riley USC teams would have given up a big play or three even while outscoring the overmatched opponent. But this group just shut out the Aggies. Now the Trojans get a week off before they open Big Ten play at Michigan.

10. Penn State: The Nittany Lions won their clunker against Bowling Green, but it was dicey for most of the game. The scary part for Penn State was the relative ease with which the Falcons moved the ball. We weren’t supposed to be worried about the Penn State defense. The good news? The offense still looked much more dynamic than last year’s version.

11. Missouri: Tigers fans have been mad at me for leaving out their team so far, but I had to include them this time because the choice came down to an Oregon team that struggled to beat two Group of 5 teams and a Missouri team that has yet to give up a point. Yes, Boise State is tougher than Murray State or Buffalo, but the Tigers have looked good every step of the way so far. They’ll be challenged Saturday when Boston College visits Columbia. And if they keep playing the way they have, they’ll stay on this list. Do I think six SEC teams will ultimately make the bracket? Probably not.

First (Power) Four Out: Oregon, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Nebraska

Group of Five representative

The rules don’t limit how many Group of 5 teams can make the tournament, but common sense suggests that most years only the highest ranked Group of 5 champion will make the bracket, and it will make it as the No. 12 seed because it will be ranked lower than 12.

12. UNLV: Boise State nearly beat Oregon, but should the Broncos get this spot because of an almost win? Northern Illinois beat Notre Dame, but are we confident the Huskies will win the MAC? I’m going to leave UNLV here for now. The Rebels easily beat Utah Tech, but their dominant 27-7 win at Houston looked even better after the Cougars went to Norman and pushed Oklahoma to the brink. UNLV will get another challenge Friday when it faces Kansas in an MLS Stadium (the Kansas stadium is being renovated). But keep an eye on Northern Illinois, which opens MAC play Sept. 21 against Buffalo and then goes to Raleigh to face N.C. State.

Group of 5 Contenders: Northern Illinois, Boise State, USF

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 USC at No. 8 Alabama
Winner faces No. 1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Texas
Winner faces No. 4 Utah in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ole Miss
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Missouri at No. 6 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl

Remaining Bubble Teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subsets: Potential at-larges and potential win-and-in conference champs. It should go without saying that a potential at-large also is a potential conference champ. In the Big Ten and the SEC, it’s likely both teams that make the conference title game will make the CFP. That isn’t a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and it’s possible one or two teams that make those games will only have a puncher’s chance that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential At-Larges

ACC: Clemson, Louisville
Big Ten: Oregon, Nebraska, Iowa
Big 12: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Arizona
SEC: LSU, Oklahoma

Potential Win-And-In conference champs: 

ACC: Cal, Boston College
Big Ten: None
Big 12: Iowa State, UCF, West Virginia
SEC: None

Group of Five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 league have a chance to be the highest ranked Group of 5 champ.

American Athletic Conference: Memphis, USF, Tulane
Conference USA: Liberty
MAC: Miami (Ohio), Toledo
Mountain West: Boise State
Sun Belt: Texas State