College Football Playoff Preview: Pressing questions for a fascinating Rose Bowl matchup featuring Michigan-Alabama

The football gods have blessed us with an amazing set of College Football Playoff Semifinals, as both the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl project to be two of the most competitive games we’ve seen as we wave goodbye to the four-team format. 

There is no inevitable champion in 2023. 

Michigan, Alabama, Washington and Texas all have paths to winning a national title. 

And that’s awesome. 

These are two juicy matchups featuring all sorts of storylines, X-factors and narratives galore. 

In the first of two preview pieces, I offer five pressing questions — not necessarily the most basic inquiries but particulars I’m most curious about — for each CFP Semifinal.

Naturally, we start with the granddaddy of them all, the Rose Bowl. 

How healthy is J.J. McCarthy?

Michigan’s quarterback reportedly battled an ankle and shoulder injury the last month of the season, and his play certainly suggested he was hampered by something as the junior averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt and 124 yards per game the last four games of the season. McCarthy had his best game against Purdue the first weekend in November, but he hasn’t been the same QB since.

For the Wolverines to beat Alabama, they’re going to need more from McCarthy. He has to be a difference-maker, and not just a game-manager. If he is closer to 100 percent, his legs could provide problems for Alabama, which struggled to control Auburn’s QB run game at times in the Iron Bowl. 

McCarthy has done an excellent job of taking care of the football this season (just four interceptions to 19 touchdowns), but he had a pair of costly pick-sixes against TCU last season. Now he’ll face an Alabama secondary that’s the best in the nation.

Can Michigan’s OL hold up without Zak Zinter?

The Wolverines obviously want to run the ball with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, but they struggled mightily against Iowa without All-American guard Zak Zinter (34 carries for 66 yards — 1.9 per rush). 

Despite the OL’s supposed prowess, Michigan hasn’t run the ball efficiently all season, ranking in the 60s nationally in yards per carry and 51st in explosive runs over 20 yards. Now, the line has concerns on the right side at both guard and tackle. 

With Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell flying off the edges, the Tide are a havoc defense, but teams (namely LSU and Auburn) have found success on the ground against them in 2023. With Zinter, the Wolverines couldn’t block Penn State’s edge rushers, so Sherrone Moore took the air out of the ball and ran it right at the Nittany Lions. 

If Michigan can’t find similar success on the ground versus the Tide, Alabama’s defensive line, led by Turner, could take over the game. 

Has Jim Harbaugh adjusted his bowl prep in any manner?

Insert all your snarky spy-gate jokes here, but Michigan’s head coach has done a ton right in turning his alma mater back into a national power. 

The Wolverines have won three straight Big Ten championships and beaten rival Ohio State three years in a row, too. 

But Harbaugh has been out-foxed in six straight bowl or CFP games, entering the Rose Bowl on a long losing streak. For all the aplomb he and his staff deserve for their roster management, player development and in-season coaching, Harbaugh has missed the mark when he’s had weeks to prepare for a single game. 

During the six-game losing streak, Michigan has been everything from too buttoned up/stiff (see: like refusing to ride go-carts at the Orange Bowl) to too overconfident (see: last year’s playoff loss to TCU). 

They’ve reportedly been much “looser” this week in California, so maybe that’s the needle Harbaugh has finally threaded? 

Alabama has the coaching advantage with the GOAT on one sideline, but Harbaugh, Moore and Minter have proven to be a helluva triumvirate.  Weeks to prepare for a single game has not been Harbaugh’s strength, but maybe with a different attitude and drills like “Beat Alabama” in practice will change that this year.

Which Alabama team shows up: The Tide team that upset Georgia or the one that struggled to put away opponents for much of the season?

This is perhaps the question for Alabama this week.

This is not one of Nick Saban’s best teams. It’s probably one of his worst. And yet, the Tide, at full functionality, looked like the scariest team in the country in the upset over Georgia. Some of Alabama’s physical dominance in the SEC Championship has been a bit overblown (they averaged just 2.8 yards per carry on 41 attempts, and had 306 total yards), but they did make key play at critical moments. 

Jalen Milroe was the most dynamic player on the field against Georgia, and that will be the case again Monday. Unlike earlier in the season, Milroe avoided a back-breaking turnover to beat the Bulldogs, and now he’ll face a front seven that’s better than UGA’s or Texas’. But his maturation as a quarterback has been evident, and it’s a credit to the coaching job Nick Saban and Tommy Rees have done with the Tide’s offense this season. 

Throw out Alabama’s miracle win over Auburn. The Iron Bowl is always full of voodoo. If Alabama plays the way it did in ugly wins over Texas A&M, Arkansas or Tennessee, then Saban will lose his first College Football Playoff Semifinal since 2014. 

If the Tide team that beat Georgia shows up, well, good luck, Wolverines.

First to 24 wins the game?

The over/under of the Rose Bowl is 44.5, and at first glance, that total seems low considering so many of these CFB Semifinal games have been shootouts — especially the Rose Bowl. 

But neither of these offenses plays with real pace or tempo, and with both aiming to run the ball first and create explosive shots off play-action, the clock is going to burn. Alabama isn’t great running the ball conventionally, but Milroe’s legs are absolutely an X-factor. A year ago, Max Duggan gave Michigan’s defense problems extending plays, rushing for 57 yards and two scores in the upset. 

Perhaps these teams can get into the 30s, but with these three yards and a cloud of dust offenses, I don’t see it. 

Michigan’s defense is borderline elite. How much of that is playing in the Big Ten? We’ll find out. But not allowing a single 1st-and-goal snap until the 10th game of the season is an incredible achievement. Jesse Minter’s unit doesn’t make mistakes. 

They aren’t littered with household names (although folks certainly should know how good the likes of Mike Sainristill and Kris Jenkins are), but it’s a group with NFL players at every single level. 

Meanwhile, as mentioned, Alabama has the best secondary in college football, and sophomore linebackers Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell are an underrated duo nationally. 

The Tide have mucked up some semifinal games before (see: Michigan State, Washington and Clemson), and I could totally foresee that happening again on Monday. 

One interesting final bonus note/question: Alabama has been challenged all season. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? The Tide have proven their mettle with multiple second-half comebacks and performing clutch in close wins. 

Conversely, Michigan has been dominant for three months. They’ve owned the game control metic and have barely had to sweat most Saturdays. Are the Wolverines capable of staging a rally? Can they play from behind?’

It’ll be fascinating to see everything play out come Monday afternoon.