Skip to main content
Join

College Football Playoff: Projecting a 12-team bracket after week 4

Andy Staples head shotby:Andy Staples•09/25/23•

andy_staples

2024 College Football Playoff quarterfinal sites set based on existing conference bowl agreements
On3

The 12-team College Football Playoff doesn’t start until next season, but it’s not too early to imagine how the bracket might look. Through four weeks of this season, the national title race feels as wide-open as any in the four-team CFP era. This actually would be a great time to start the 12-team format, but unfortunately we can only dream about these potential matchups for another season. Let’s start preparing for a 12-team playoff world by hypothesizing how the bracket might shake out if this season ended with next season’s format.

One bittersweet difference? There is still a Pac-12 (as we know it) this year. So we’ll operate under the currently planned format using the current conference alignment. (If this format were in place this year, the Pac-12 would be well represented.) Remember, these are the rules as currently planned. The six highest ranked conference champions get bids. The six next highest ranked teams get the at-large bids. The four highest ranked conference champs get byes. Seeds five through eight host in the first round. Beginning in the quarterfinals, games are played at bowls.

If this looks similar to Sunday’s CFP/New Year’s Six bowl projections, it should. The teams are the same with one exception. Because of bowl contracts, the Orange Bowl has to take an ACC team in the current format. In the new format, those obligations disappear. So while I had North Carolina slotted into the Orange in the bowl projections, I’ve replaced the Tar Heels with Washington here. 

1. Georgia (SEC champ) 
2. Penn State (Big Ten champ) 
3. Texas (Big 12 champ) 
4. Florida State (ACC champ) 
5. Oregon (Pac-12 champ)
6. Michigan (At-large)
7. Ohio State (At-large)
8. Notre Dame (At-large)
9. USC (At-large)
10. Washington (At-large)
11. Alabama (At-large)
12. Fresno State (Mountain West champ) 

Playoff bracket matchups

12. Fresno State at 5. Oregon 
**Winner plays No. 4 Florida State in the Orange Bowl

11. Alabama at 6. Michigan 
**Winner plays No. 3 Texas in the Cotton Bowl 

10. Washington at 7. Ohio State
**Winner plays No. 2 Penn State in the Rose Bowl 

9. USC at 8. Notre Dame
**Winner plays No. 1 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl