College Football Playoff Rankings after Week 1: Top 4 seeds, at-large bids, bracket prediction
College football is back, and so are our Way-Too-Early-College-Football-Playoff-Projections.
The CFB committee won’t actually release its rankings for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff until November, but each week this fall, I’ll seed the field based on how I believe the committee would stack the bracket.
My On3 colleague Andy Staples is releasing a weekly bracketology — based on his rankings, too.
Seeding is important here, as are the specific details — which ESPN’s own commentators screwed up in Week 0 describing how the field would be set.
The cliff notes version is the highest-ranked conference champions net the Top 4 seeds. The next-highest-ranked champ (likely a Group of 5 representative but not guaranteed) also gets an automatic berth.
The remaining seven bids will go to at-large teams. Notably, Notre Dame (particularly important now after the Irish’s win at Texas A&M) is not eligible for a Top 4 seed.
So here’s how I project the 2024 College Football Playoff Rankings would like after Week 1:
The Top 4 Seeds
1. Georgia (SEC Champion)
The Bulldogs vaporized Clemson with a dominant second half, outscoring the Tigers 28-6 after halftime. This 2024 defense doesn’t have a Jalen Carter or Jordan Davis, but the overall unit is far deeper, faster and more athletic than last year’s defense — which still ranked 9th nationally overall. That’s terrifying.
2. Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
The Buckeyes essentially have a six-week runway to put nothing notable on tape before it has its toughest four-game stretch of the season (Iowa, at Oregon, Nebraska, at Penn State). Will Howard recorded just four quarterback runs — a figure that will likely double in OSU’s biggest games this fall. So stay tuned.
3. Miami (ACC Champion)
The Hurricanes have to be ecstatic with their transfer portal additions after just one week, as Cam Ward made the first case for the Heisman Trophy, while Damien Martinez, Tyler Baron and other newcomers all made big contributions, too. With their offensive and defensive lines, the Canes will be favored in every game the rest of the season.
4. Utah (Big 12 Champion)
The Utes have a long way to go to win a very competitive Big 12, but their season go off to a blazing start as the injured duo of Cam Rising and Brent Kuthie looked like their 2022 form. Utah also discovered an X-factor playmaker in gadget tailback/receiver Dijon Stanley, who had 184 total yards and two touchdowns.
The At-Larges
5. Notre Dame
The Irish had the biggest win of Week 1, and with a schedule littered with favorite cupcakes, there’s a legitimate path for an undefeated regular season for Marcus Freeman’s team. If that happens, then Notre Dame could lock down the coveted No. 5 seed.
6. Texas
Will the Longhorns still hold this spot a week from now? With a trip to Michigan looming, Steve Sarkisian’s team has a chance to score a marquee win that would come in mighty handy in terms of seeding down the road. This could be an interesting inflection point for the committee come the end of the season: How would it view a potential one-loss SEC team versus an undefeated Notre Dame?
7. Alabama
The Crimson Tide put the Hilltoppers into the dirt with a 63-0 splattering over Western Kentucky. Jalen Milroe, Ryan Williams and Justice Haynes will face a stiffer test against Wisconsin’s defense this weekend.
8. Penn State
The Nittany Lions might have the happiest fan base in America after Week 1. Andy Kotelnicki’s offense featured all sorts of firepower, the defense remains legit and the other Big Ten contenders (Oregon, Michigan) displayed concerning warts.
9. Ole Miss
Like Ohio State, Ole Miss has more than a month to gear up for a challenging stretch in the back half of its schedule. In the coming weeks, the Rebels are likely to rise in these rankings.
10. Oregon
This is where preseason bias comes into play. The Ducks didn’t look like a Top 25 team against Idaho — much-less a CFP at-large bid — but they’ll remain in the field so long they win.
11. Missouri
The Tigers round out the field as the final at-large bid, giving the SEC five spots in the 12-team field. That still seems like too many, but until the rankings start to see a lot of shuffling, it remains the current projection.
12. Boise State
There’s a strong case to be made for UNLV, which beat Houston on Saturday, but the Broncos remain the favorites to win the Mountain West and have one of the nation’s best individual players in tailback Ashton Jenty (267 rushing yards and six touchdowns in Week 1!).
First Four Out: Tennessee, Oklahoma, USC, Oklahoma State
Group of 5 Contenders: UNLV, Memphis, USF, App. State
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The Projected Bracket
No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 Penn State
Winner faces No. 1 Georgia in the Rose Bowl
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 4 Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl
No. 10 Oregon at No. 7 Alabama
Winner faces No. 2 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl
No. 11 Missouri at No. 6 Texas
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl