College Football Playoff Rankings after Week 2: Top 4 seeds, at-large bids, bracket prediction
It took one week of action to totally shake up the Way-Too-Early College Football Playoff Rankings.
Notre Dame’s stunning loss to Northern Illinois was like smashing a snow globe and seeing the the antifreeze infect everything.
An undefeated season? Gone.
That coveted No. 5 seed?
Bye Bye.
A playoff spot in general?
Not looking great but check back later.
The Week 2 College Football Playoff Rankings projections already look quite different after Notre Dame and Michigan lost, and Oregon was once again a lucky duck to move to 2-0. Also, my On3 colleague Andy Staples will release his own weekly bracketology, too.
Remember: The CFB committee won’t actually release its rankings for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff until November, but each week this fall, I’ll seed the field based on how I believe the committee would stack the bracket today.
Also: Seeding is important here, as are the specific details — which ESPN’s own commentators screwed up in Week 0 describing how the field would be set.
The quickie cliff notes version is the highest-ranked conference champions get the Top 4 seeds. The next-highest-ranked champ (likely a Group of 5 representative but not guaranteed) also gets an automatic berth.
The remaining seven bids will go to at-large teams.
So here’s how I project the 2024 College Football Playoff Rankings would like after Week 2:
The Top 4 Seeds
1. Georgia (SEC Champion): The Bulldogs clobbered Tennessee Tech with expected ease, but the more interesting takeaway from UGA’s perspective was the way in which Clemson throttled App. State 66-20. The Tigers couldn’t do anything against the Bulldogs in the opener, and a week later they scored 35 points in 15 minutes.
2. Ohio State (Big Ten Champion): The Buckeyes get to enjoy a bye week after blanking Western Michigan 56-0. Ryan Day’s team offered a teaser of their #DeathMode capabilities Saturday, as the running game, defense and freshman wideout Jeremiah Smith were hitting on all cylinders. Considering how Oregon has looked so spotty to start the season, Ohio State may not be truly tested until a Nov. 2 road game at Penn State.
3. Miami (ACC Champion): The Hurricanes get to ease into their ACC schedule with another cupcake game against Ball State and then a semi-interesting test against USF, which pushed Alabama for three quarters. Cam Ward looks fantastic and Miami’s front seven is fearsome even without Reuben Bain barely playing so far this year.
4. Utah (Big 12 Champion): We’re a long way from determining who will even play for the Big 12 title game in Dallas — much less win the league and earn the coveted auto-bid. Cam Rising is already dealing with another injury (this time a hand issue) and it’s hard to believe anything Kyle Whittingham says about Rising’s timeline.
The At-Larges
5. Texas: This is the perfect case as to why many hate the current format of the 12-team playoff. The Longhorns own the best win of the season, going to Michigan and cruising to a 31-12 victory, and yet, they can’t crack a Top-4 seed because they’re ranked behind No. 1 Georgia. Obviously, those two teams will get to settle the SEC supremacy on the field, but for now, Texas holds the top at-large bid in the tournament.
6. Tennessee: This is an example where I believe the committee would deviate from the Top 25 AP Poll. The Vols are ranked behind the likes of Alabama, Ole Miss and Missouri, but they have the most dominant and impressive win of the bunch. They housed No. 24 NC State — and did so without Nico Iamaleava having a world-beating day. For my money, these Vols are a Top-3 team in the SEC, and I believe the CFP committee feels the same way.
7. Alabama: The Crimson Tide are going to get the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise … maybe that’s this weekend if they lose at Wisconsin. But Jalen Milroe & Co., found a way to get past USF over the weekend, turning a one-point game into a blowout with four-straight scores. Alabama has shown signs of concerning warts: The offensive line can’t pass protect and the secondary is very, very young.
8. Ole Miss: Too low? Maybe, but the Rebels schedule is such dog-poo (wins over Furman and MTSU, upcoming games against Wake Forest, Georgia Southern, UK and South Carolina) that we won’t get a real read on Lane Kiffin’s team until mid-October. We do know Jaxson Dart (795 yards, eight total touchdowns) is awesome and a true Heisman Trophy contender.
9. Penn State: Win your clunkers, right Nittany Lions? Penn State had a pathetic first half against Bowling Green, but Tom Allen’s defense tightened up in the third quarter and allowed just 80 yards in the second half. Drew Allar was not overly impressive, but PSU does look like it has 2022 Nick Singleton back.
10. USC: The Trojans had a businesslike 41-0 win over Utah State — which for a Lincoln Riley-led team is noted progress. The offense remains ripe with playmakers, but the defense finally looks to have some dudes, too. USC has an idle date before a matchup in the Big House with Michigan.
11. Missouri: The Tigers haven’t allowed a single point so far this season, but they haven’t played anybody, either. The committee will get a much better gauge on Eli Drinkwitz’s team this weekend when they host No. 24 Boston College.
12. Northern Illinois: The battle for the Group of 5 auto-bid looks to be fierce this fall. Boise State nearly upset Oregon and remains a realistic candidate, while UNLV and Texas State both merit consideration. Memphis has a chance to seriously enter the conversation if the Tigers can upset Florida State this Saturday. Still, after two weeks, how can the G5 representative not be a NIU team that won at Notre Dame as a four-touchdown underdog? For at least one week (or more) Thomas Hammock’s team deserves the king’s chair.
First Four Out: Oregon, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State
Group of 5 Contenders: UNLV, Boise State, Memphis, USF, Liberty, Texas State
The Projected Bracket
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Ole Miss
Winner faces No. 1 Georgia in the Rose Bowl
No. 12 Northern Illinois at No. 5 Texas
Winner faces No. 4 Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl
No. 10 USC at No. 7 Alabama
Winner faces No. 2 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl
No. 11 Missouri at No. 6 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl