College Football Playoff Rankings after Week 3: Top 4 seeds, at-large bids, bracket prediction
We have a shakeup at the top of the Week 3 College Football Playoff Rankings.
After Georgia sputtered its way to a sluggish win at Kentucky, they dropped to No. 2 in most polls — which means a bigger fall from the predicted No. 1-seed in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.
The Week 2 College Football Playoff Rankings projections looked quite different with Notre Dame and Michigan losing two weeks ago, and while there were no actual upsets, Georgia’s move from the top-spot, coupled with some stuffing elsewhere, has the Week 3 College Football Playoff Rankings projections seeing several changes, too.
Remember: The CFB committee won’t actually release its rankings for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff until November, but each week this fall, I’ll seed the field based on how I believe the committee would stack the bracket today.
Also, my On3 colleague Andy Staples will release his own weekly bracketology, too.
Seeding is important here, as are the specific details — which ESPN’s own commentators screwed up in Week 0 describing how the field would be set.
The quickie cliff notes version is the highest-ranked conference champions get the Top 4 seeds. The next-highest-ranked champ (likely a Group of 5 representative but not guaranteed) also gets an automatic berth.
The remaining seven bids will go to at-large teams.
So here’s how I project the 2024 College Football Playoff Rankings would like after Week 3:
The Top 4 Seeds
1. Texas (SEC Champion): The Longhorns leapfrogged Georgia as the current top dog in the SEC — though the two teams will get to settle that on the field come Oct. 19 in Austin. Fresh off its win in the Big House, Texas whooped up on UTSA — with Arch Manning shinning in relief for an injured Quinn Ewers. In the redshirt freshman’s most extensive playing time to date, he accounted for five touchdowns, including a 67-yard run. Ewers is reportedly set to miss the Louisiana-Monroe game, paving the way for more Manning Mania (even if there is no QB controversy at Texas).
2. Ohio State (Big Ten Champion): The Buckeyes were idle this weekend and have their third non-conference cupcake with Marshall before starting Big Ten play.
3. Miami (ACC Champion): The Hurricanes have looked the part of the most complete team in the ACC thus far, just demolishing foes on a weekly basis. Cam Ward scored five more touchdowns in the rout over Ball State (62-0), and this week he’ll face at least a stiffer test playing pesky USF in Tampa.
4. Utah (Big 12 Champion): The Utes remain the highest-ranked Big 12 team, and while Kansas State dispatched No. 20 Arizona, they are still the favorites to win the league. Cam Rising missed the 38-21 win over Utah State but he’s set to return for a pivotal two-game stretch against No. 14 Oklahoma State and Arizona.
The At-Larges
5. Georgia: The bye week couldn’t come at a better time for the Bulldogs, which lost All-American guard Tate Ratledge to an injury in the escape over Kentucky and were already playing without top pass rusher Mykell Williams and veteran defensive tackle Warren Brinson. Kirby Smart’s team has two weeks to get right before a statement trip to Tuscaloosa.
6. Alabama: The Crimson Tide finally flexed their true might, pasting Wisconsin 42-10 in Madison. Behind a healthy offensive line, Jalen Milroe was awesome (five touchdowns), and Alabama enters its idle date full of confidence before a Top 5 showdown with Georgia in two weeks.
7. Tennessee: The Vols are a wagon, smashing Kent State by more than 70 points without a single takeaway. Josh Heupel’s offense is cookin’ but it will face its first true test in a homecoming return to Oklahoma this weekend.
8. Ole Miss: The Rebels have handled their business with aplomb against a truly abysmal slate. Jaxson Dart is a Heisman Trophy contender and Lane Kiffin is about to see his name linked to the Florida job in countless columns. We won’t find out much about this team for another few weeks.
9. Penn State: The Nittany Lions spent the bye week rewatching a frustrating film session against Bowling Green, and now they get to take out some of that anger on an awful Kent State team this weekend. We’ll find out a lot more about James Franklin’s team once the calendar switches to pumpkin carving season next month.
10. USC: The Trojans were idle this weekend, and suddenly are now road favorites in their marquee matchup at Michigan on Saturday. A win over the Wolverines in the Big House would go a long ways for USC’s playoff hopes this fall.
11. Missouri: The Tigers had an underwhelming showing against No. 24 Boston College, but Brady Cook made enough plays to keep Mizzou undefeated before SEC play.
12. UNLV: With apologies to Northern Illinois, which is ranked in the current AP Poll Top 25 after upsetting Notre Dame in Week 2, and Memphis, which just won at Florida State, UNLV projects to be the committee’s highest-ranked G5 champion after winning at Kansas on Friday. The Rebels now have a pair of upsets over Big 12 teams and they have a chance at another resume win with Syracuse coming to Las Vegas in early October. Barry Odom’s team still has to take care of business in the Mountain West, which means beating Boise State, but for now, they get the final spot in the 12-team field.
First Four Out: Oregon, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State
Group of 5 Contenders: Northern Illinois, Boise State, Memphis, Toledo and USF
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The Projected Bracket
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Ole Miss
Winner faces No. 1 Texas in the Rose Bowl
No. 12 Northern Illinois at No. 5 Georgia
Winner faces No. 4 Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl
No. 10 USC at No. 7 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 2 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl
No. 11 Missouri at No. 6 Alabama
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl