College Football Playoff Rankings after Week 4: Top 4 seeds, at-large bids, bracket prediction
The 2024 season has lacked the chaos so many predicted, but that doesn’t mean the College Football Playoff Rankings haven’t changed over the course of the first four weeks.
Last week, Texas leapfrogged Georgia for the No. 1 spot — sending the Bulldogs down to the No. 5 seed due to the CFP rankings criteria.
The Week 4 College Football Playoff Rankings projections feature more movement in the 12-team bracket, as Missouri (which won but has underwhelmed) and USC (which missed a golden opportunity at Michigan) are both out, and Oregon and Michigan are back in the field.
Clemson just missed the cut, but suddenly, there’s a realistic scenario where two ACC teams could make the 12-team field.
Remember: The CFB committee won’t actually release its rankings for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff until November, but each week this fall, I’ll seed the field based on how I believe the committee would stack the bracket today.
Also, my On3 colleague Andy Staples will release his own weekly bracketology, too.
Seeding is important here, as are the specific details — which ESPN’s own commentators screwed up in Week 0 describing how the field would be set.
The quickie cliff notes version is the highest-ranked conference champions get the Top 4 seeds. The next-highest ranked champ (likely a Group of 5 representative but not guaranteed) also gets an automatic berth.
The remaining seven bids will go to at-large teams.
So here’s how I project the 2024 College Football Playoff Rankings would like after Week 4:
The Top 4 Seeds
1. Texas: (SEC Champion): Arch Manning made his first-career start at Texas on Saturday in a rout over Louisiana-Monroe, and while it was a bit of a seesaw showing (two touchdowns, two picks), the redshirt freshman still flashed impressive traits that made him the top recruit in the 2023 class. Manning looks on track to start the Longhorns’ opener against Mississippi State, as Quinn Ewers is still “questionable” with an abdomen strain.
2. Ohio State (Big Ten Champion): Against Marshall, the Buckeyes showed why teams are so terrified of their offensive firepower. When they crank it up, the Buckeyes are a blur. Emeka Egbuka had a 63-yard touchdown. Quinshon Judkins sprinted 86 yards for a score. TreVeyon Henderson had a 42-yard rushing touchdown, and 5-star freshman Jeremiah Smith took a slant 53-yards to the house.
3. Miami (ACC Champion): With the way Clemson has flushed its blowout loss to Georgia, the ‘Canes might suddenly have some competition to win the ACC. And yet, Miami remains the clear-cut leader in the clubhouse. Cam Ward (another 400-yard, three-touchdown game), Damien Martinez (three touchdowns) and a host of wideouts are just drowning teams offensively through four games.
4. Utah (Big 12 Champion): Kyle Whittingham’s injury BS aside, Utah might be the toughest team (pound for pound) in the country. They went into Stillwater and squeezed the life out of the Cowboys for a 22-19 win (a score that’s very deceiving) with a backup quarterback. Cam Rising’s future availably adds some volatility to the equation, but Utah has the makeup of a CFP team that will earn a coveted bye.
The At-Larges
5. Georgia: How will the Bulldogs’ offensive line look without All-American guard Tate Ratledge? Is their M.A.S.H. unit DL capable of slowing down Jalen Milroe? We’ll find out come Saturday night.
6. Alabama: Kalen DeBoer coached in the national championship game just last season, and yet, Saturday’s latest ‘Game of the Century’ between No. 2 Georgia and No. 4 Alabama feels even bigger. The Crimson Tide have had UGA’s number, but that was with Nick Saban.
7. Tennessee: The Vols put Oklahoma in a blender and mashed the Sooners for a comfortable road win in Norman. That’s hard to do. With a nasty defense and an offense capable of going BOOM on any play, Josh Heupel’s team looks like a surefire CFP team right now.
8. Ole Miss: Somehow, the Rebels’ cupcake schedule looks even easier as we enter the end of September. Maybe they’ll get pushed by Kentucky or South Carolina. Probably not. And now at LSU and Oklahoma certainly don’t look nearly as daunting.
9. Oregon: Welcome back to the CFP rankings, Ducks. Oregon was idle last week, but their strong showing against Oregon State coupled with some minor movement in the Top 12 has Dan Lanning’s team positioned for a playoff berth. They open Big Ten play against old Pac-12 foe UCLA, but all eyes remain on their Oct. 12 showdown against No. 2 Ohio State.
10. Penn State: The Nittany Lions set a school record for offensive yards in a 56-0 pasting over Kent State. We learned next to nothing about PSU in that game except that tight end Tyler Warren is probably their best all-around player. We’ll find out a lot more about James Franklin’s team when they host a Top 25 Illinois team this weekend.
11. Michigan: Out goes Missouri, in steps Michigan after the Wolverines rallied to beat a USC that was in the playoff field just last week. Clemson had a real argument for this spot, too, but the committee is likely to reward the reigning national champs for getting off the mat after losing to Texas two weeks ago and beating the Trojans as a 6-point underdog.
12. Boise State: The Group of 5 cannibalizing is well under way, as Northern Illinois enjoyed two weeks of attaboys and subsequently lost to Buffalo. Toledo throttled Mississippi State and then lost at Western Kentucky. UNLV remains a strong contender here, but Barry Odom’s team was off last week, which allowed Boise State to leap back into the rankings. The Broncos play at UNLV on Oct. 25.
First Four Out: Missouri, Clemson, USC, Louisville
Group of 5 Contenders: UNLV, Toledo, Liberty, USF
The Projected Bracket
No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Ole Miss
Winner faces No. 1 Texas in the Rose Bowl
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia
Winner faces No. 4 Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl
No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 2 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl
No. 11 Michigan at No. 6 Alabama
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl