College Football Playoff Rankings after Week 5: First Four in, First Two out

At the end of September, there remains little consensus on who the best four teams are through five weeks. 

Georgia, Michigan, Florida State and Texas still fill out the First Four in our latest College Football Playoff Rankings projections for the third-straight week, but after another set of data points, there was a slight shakeup in the order.  This upcoming Saturday will have a lot to say about the outlook of the future rankings, though. 

The Bulldogs host a Top 25 Kentucky team that’s fresh off a blowout over Florida, while Texas tangles with Oklahoma in a spicy Red River Rivalry showdown. Even Ohio State, looking just outside the Top 4, has a tricky matchup against an undefeated Maryland team. 

Reminder: This is not a projection of how we see the playoff shaking out by the season’s end. It’s how we think the committee would rank these teams today based on preseason rankings and what we’ve seen thus far. 

Here’s how we project the 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings would like after Week 5:

1. Georgia

After slogging its way through another win — albeit at Jordan-Hare Stadium with a quarterback making his first-career start on the road — the Bulldogs are looking very 2014 Florida State-ish to start the 2023 season. The Seminoles, also the then-reigning champs, survived and advanced each week until finally getting exposed by Oregon in the College Football Playoff. 

Perhaps Kirby Smart’s team faces a similar fate. Or maybe they’ll get caught earlier (see: A Top 25 game against Kentucky this weekend)? Or perhaps they’ll slowly knock out the kinks and emerge as the true top team in the sport for the third straight year — especially in a season without a defined No. 1. 

2. Michigan

Whether it’s been in non-conference play or versus Big Ten foes, the Wolverines have been the same team all season: A Maize & Blue boa constrictor that suffocates teams defensively and strikes for the kill-shot 3-4 times a game via play-action bombs or flea-flickers.  Michigan hasn’t had a defensive snap inside the 10-yard line all year! Jesse Minter’s unit is getting it done, while the Wolverines’ OL is starting to lean on opponents more and more each week. 

They still have a schedule that won’t challenge them for another month, so stay tuned until their road date at Penn State in early November.

3. Texas

The Longhorns are burning some Burnt Orange narratives in 2023, handling their business in games prior Texas teams might’ve gacked.  Texas destroyed a then-Top 25 Kansas 40-14 on Saturday — the result not even indicative of the Longhorns’ dominance in the game. They had over 650 yards, including 334 on the ground. Their front-seven remains a strength, while quarterback Quinn Ewers continues to build chemistry with transfer wideout AD Michell. 

They face another tough test Saturday with an exciting Red River Rivalry showdown with Oklahoma, as the Sooners look much-improved in Year 2 under Brent Venables.

4. Florida State

With star quarterback Jordan Travis banged and bruised, the Seminoles used a well-timed idle date to rest up after beating Clemson in overtime last weekend. 

And yet, their resume took a hit as the win over LSU no longer looks as quite as impressive with the Tigers proving to be a complete sieve defensively. FSU’s nail-biting win over a bad Boston College team is a ding, too, but the ‘Noles remain the heavy favorites to win the ACC and make their second appearance in the CFP field. 

FIRST TWO OUT

5. Ohio State 

The Buckeyes’ defensive growth in Year 2 under Jim Knowles is real (Top 10 nationally in scoring and yards per play), and their best two pass rushers haven’t even heated up yet (JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer have zero sacks). 

Questions remain about quarterback Kyle McCord’s ability to produce explosive plays, and for as loaded as the Buckeyes are are tailback and receiver, their skill-talent won’t matter if their OL can’t consistently win 1-on-1s, which was an issue at times against Notre Dame. Ohio State has a tricky game Saturday against a 5-0 Maryland team that pushed them for four quarters a year ago.

6. Washington 

The Huskies had their first so-so showing of the 2023 season against Arizona (31-24 with quarterback Michael Penix not throwing a touchdown pass for the first time all year), but they’re still beating teams by an average of nearly four touchdowns — which is still better than any other team in the Top 10 of the AP Poll rankings. 

With USC remaining unserious about fixing its defensive issues, Washington and Oregon look like the best teams in the Pac-12 in 2023 — and the two teams will get to make its cases against one another after an idle date in two weeks.