College Football Playoff Rankings after Week 5: Top 4 seeds, at-large bids, bracket prediction

Well, we finally got a dose of chaos after a fantastic Week 5, and thusly, the College Football Playoff Rankings look a whole lot differently than they did just seven days prior. 

We have a new No. 1 after Alabama boat-raced stumbled rallied to beat Georgia in an all-timer Saturday night, but that’s hardly the only change in the projected 12-team field. 

Ole Miss is out after getting punked by Kentucky, while Utah gambled one too many times in the “Will he or won’t he” play Cam Rising Roulette. 

Meanwhile, there’s now two ACC teams in the latest College Football Playoff bracket (Hello, Clemson), and the G5 race seems like it could be down to a Mountain West affair between Boise State vs. UNLV. Or is it?

Remember: The CFB committee won’t actually release its rankings for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff until November, but each week this fall, I’ll seed the field based on how I believe the committee would stack the bracket today.  

Also, my On3 colleague Andy Staples will release his own weekly bracketology, too. 

Seeding is important here, as are the specific details — which ESPN’s own commentators screwed up in Week 0 describing how the field would be set. 

The quickie cliff notes version is the highest-ranked conference champions get the Top 4 seeds. The next-highest ranked champ (likely a Group of 5 representative but not guaranteed) also gets an automatic berth. 

The remaining seven bids will go to at-large teams.

So here’s how I project the 2024 College Football Playoff Rankings would like after Week 5:

The Top 4 Seeds

1. Alabama (SEC Champion): Led by Jalen Milroe’s brilliance, the Crimson Tide raced out to a 28-0 lead, led 30-7 late in the third quarter and then found themselves needing a 75-yard touchdown and game-sealing interception just to win 41-34 against No. 2 Georgia. It’s easily the best victory for any team thus far in 2024, valuing Kalen DeBoer’s team to the top of the bracket. 

2. Ohio State (Big Ten Champion): The Buckeyes handled their business in East Lancing, as freshman wideout Jeremiah Smith continues to put together weekly highlight reels reminiscent of Calvin Johnson mixed with Julio Jones. Ohio State has yet to be tested, and maybe that changes next week again Iowa? But probably not. 

3. Miami (ACC Champion): The ‘Canes won a controversial game against Va. Tech on Friday night, needing officials to overturn a Hail Mary touchdown to remain undefeated. Cam Ward had his first YOLO game of 2024, making a couple of truly boneheaded mistakes only to respond with a couple of miraculous plays to save Miami. For now, the Canes still get the nod over a surging Clemson team.

4. BYU (Big 12 Champion): Bye, bye Utah. Hello, Holy War rival BYU? While Iowa State, Kansas State and host of other Big 12 teams could ultimately claim this spot come December, the Cougars have the best resume to date. They blasted Kansas State, and their win against SMU keeps looking better and better. 

The At-Larges

5. Texas: The Longhorns’ reign at No. 1 lasted a week, and they didn’t do anything wrong. They won easily against Mississippi State, and now they get to rest for a week before Red River. Will Quinn Ewers return to action or will it still be the Arch Manning show?

6. Tennessee: The Vols enjoyed an idle date after their win at Oklahoma, and now they begin a stretch of games at Arkansas, and then home vs. Florida, Kentucky and Alabama. 

7. Georgia: Which is the real version of the Bulldogs? Jekyll (the one that got behind 28-0 at Alabama?) or Hyde (the one that refused to let go of the rope and re-took the lead in a raucous Bryant-Denny Stadium after an incredible comeback)? With a daunting schedule remaining, we’ll find out. 

8. Oregon: The Ducks splattered UCLA on Saturday, with Dan Lanning’s defense flexing its might for the first time all season  (under 200 total yards allowed, 1-10 on third down, four sacks and two interceptions). With Dillon Gabriel looking more comfortable each week in Will Stein’s system, if that’s the unit that show up versus Ohio State in two weeks? Watch out. 

9. Penn State: The Nittany Lions got into a rock fight with Illinois on Saturday, outlasting the Illini 21-14 despite a slow start offensively and some shaky special teams. They have one more gimme (UCLA) before the going gets real — at USC, at Wisconsin, vs. Ohio State). 

10. Michigan: The Wolverines’ hold onto the No. 10 seed is very, very tenuous. They have the signature win against USC, but they have otherwise underwhelmed. Badly. They needed to hold on for dear life just to beat a bad Minnesota squad last Saturday. If they don’t find a passing offense, they’re not going to avoid losing multiple times this season. 

11. Clemson: The Tigers have the ugly blemish against Georgia, but otherwise, Dabo Swinney’s team is housing opposing defenses. Cade Klubnick wasn’t flawless in a 40-14 win over Stanford, but he’s still been the second-best QB in the ACC after Cam Ward. 

12. Boise State (Highest Group of 5 Champion): This spot could be filled by UNLV, and don’t sleep on the Troops (Army and Navy), either. But the Broncos have the best win with a blowout over an undefeated Washington State team, and a 3-point loss at Oregon don’t hurt their resume. The Oct. 25 game between Boise State and UNLV should be a doozy. 

First Four Out: Missouri, USC, Notre Dame, Iowa State

Group of 5 Contenders: UNLV, James Madison, Liberty, Army, Navy

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Winner faces No. 1 Alabama in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Michigan at No. 7 Georgia
Winner faces No. 2 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Clemson at No. 6 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl