College Football Playoff Rankings after Week 6: Top 4 seeds, at-large bids, bracket prediction

The CBS reality show Big Brother has the catchphrase, “Expect the unexpected,” but in a sport with 18 to 24 year-olds, rosters that are constantly changing, realignment causing crazy travel and more parity than ever, this could be a pandemonium season. 

But chaos is a ladder, right?

At least for some teams. 

After an insane Week 6, the College Football Playoff Rankings project to have another wild shakeup. 

Alabama’s return to the top lasted one week, while Tennessee tumbled almost out of the field entirely. We’re done with Missouri, Michigan and USC for now, too. 

Remember: The CFB committee won’t actually release its rankings for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff until November, but each week this fall, I’ll seed the field based on how I believe the committee would stack the bracket today.  

Also, my On3 colleague Andy Staples will release his own weekly bracketology, too. 

Seeding is important here, as are the specific details — which ESPN’s own commentators screwed up in Week 0 describing how the field would be set. 

The quickie cliff notes version is the highest-ranked conference champions get the Top 4 seeds. The next-highest ranked champ (a Group of 5 representative) also gets an automatic berth. 

The remaining seven bids will go to at-large teams.

So here’s how I project the 2024 College Football Playoff Rankings would like after Week 6:

The Top 4 Seeds

1. Texas (SEC Champion): Texas enjoyed an all-time bye week, getting to sit back and watch all the SEC-on-SEC crime that repositioned the Longhorns as the favorites in the league. While there’s bubbling excitement for Georgia-Texas in two weeks, Steve Sarkisian’s squad needs to exact a bit of revenge on former Big 12 rival Oklahoma in Red River. Of note: Quinn Ewers is set to retake the reigns at quarterback after missing the last two games with injury.

2. Ohio State (Big Ten Champion): The Buckeyes poked and prodded Iowa for a half before finding the precise holes in the Hawkeyes defense that resulted in four touchdown drives after halftime in a 35-7 rout. Now they face their first true test of the season: A date with No. 5 Oregon in Autzen Stadium.

3. Miami (ACC Champion): Another controversial ending, another Miami win. The ‘Canes rallied from a 25-point deficit to beat Cal, as Cam Ward put on his Superman cape again. As was the case last week, Miami still gets the nod over a surging Clemson team.

4. BYU (Big 12 Champion): The Big 12 remains a total wild card league, as five teams are still undefeated in conference play. Iowa State actually leapfrogged the Cougars in the AP Poll Top 25 this week, but BYU still has the better resume with wins over SMU and Kansas State. 

The At-Larges

5. Oregon: The Ducks continue to swim in mucky waters, playing around (turnovers, penalties) with undermanned opponents before running away with the game late. Dillon Gabriel has three interceptions on the season — all in the red zone — and that’s not a recipe for upsetting No. 2 Ohio State this weekend.

6. Penn State: Can the Nittany Lions break the Big Ten’s time zone curse this weekend against USC? With the new conference realignment causing crazy travel, Big Ten teams crossing two time zones (which PSU will do) are just 1-8 on the year. 

7. Alabama: The Crimson Tide have allowed 67 points the last three halves of football, with both Georgia and Vandy exposing some of their defensive flaws. That shouldn’t be an issue this weekend against a terrible South Carolina offense this weekend.

8. Georgia: Kirby Smart’s team had a workmanlike win against rival Auburn after last week’s heartbreak to Alabama. Some of the same Jekyll and Hyde stuff still persisted — albeit not nearly as glaring. The Bulldogs get a tune-up this weekend against Mississippi State before a date with No. 1 Texas in Austin. 

9. Notre Dame: Like Texas, the Irish had to watch last weekend’s carnage with amusement. Suddenly, no one is talking about their ugly loss to Northern Illinois. Their strength of schedule took a hit with USC’s no-show at Minnesota, but with Army and Navy are still both undefeated so maybe not?

10. Clemson: Very quietly, the Tigers are on the prowl after their opening-season blowout loss to Georgia. They’ve won five straight, and while they settled for five field goals in the red zone, they easily dispatched Florida State. 

11. Tennessee: Unlike Missouri (very much so) or Ole Miss (TBD but probably not?), the Vols aren’t on fraud watch but they have shown some alarming signs offensively in their last two games. Can Nico Iamaleava and the offensive line get it together this weekend against Florida?

12. Boise State (Highest Group of 5 Champion): UNLV missed a big opportunity to pick up another resume win with a home loss to Syracuse, but Mountain West rival Boise State just keeps on hammering teams. Led by Ashton Jeanty’s brilliance, the Broncos are favored to run the table the rest of the season — which probably means having to beat the Rebels twice. Also of note, Boise State continues to climb up the rankings, and there’s a possibility they could leapfrog the Big 12 for the fourth highest-ranked champion. Stay tuned. 

First Four Out: Ole Miss, Iowa State, LSU, Texas A&M

Group of 5 Contenders: Liberty, Army, Navy, UNLV

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Georgia
Winner faces No. 1 Texas in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Oregon
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Alabama
Winner faces No. 2 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Penn State
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl