College Football Playoff Rankings after Week 7: Top 4 seeds, at-large bids, bracket prediction

The 2024 season is shaping up to be the most fun year of college football since?

Many will respond with, “2007,” and while that bananas season was responsible for insane upsets every week, the consistency of enjoyable football might be at the highest it has ever been this year. 

Thanks to the transfer portal and NIL, the talent is more spread out across the board, meaning the awesome teams aren’t *quite* as awesome, and most of the bad teams aren’t *that* bad. The shrinking gap is thus producing more quality games. 

What does that mean for the College Football Playoff? 

More volatility and weekly movement. 

We’re halfway through the 2024 regular season, and all the crazy finishes have resulted in wild swings in the College Football Playoff Rankings Projections each Tuesday. 

After Oregon’s upset over Ohio State, there’s a new debate about who should be the top-ranked seed: The Ducks or the Texas Longhorns, which booted Oklahoma 34-3 on Saturday. 

Losses might not mean as much in the new 12-team era, but quality wins are like added luxuries to a team’s resume. Texas and Oregon can afford a mulligan at this point. 

Remember: The CFB committee won’t actually release its rankings for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff until November, but each week this fall, I’ll seed the field based on how I believe the committee would stack the bracket today.  

Also, my On3 colleague Andy Staples will release his own weekly bracketology, too. 

Seeding is important here, as are the specific details — which ESPN’s own commentators screwed up in Week 0 describing how the field would be set. 

The quickie cliff notes version is the highest-ranked conference champions get the Top 4 seeds. The next-highest ranked champ (likely a Group of 5 representative but not guaranteed) also gets an automatic berth. 

The remaining seven bids will go to at-large teams.

So here’s how I project the 2024 College Football Playoff Rankings would like after Week 7:

The Top 4 Seeds

1. Texas (SEC Champion): Texas had such little regard for Oklahoma’s chances to reach the end zone Saturday that Steve Sarkisian called off the dogs midway through the third quarter and just ran out the clock in a 31-point rout. Now, the Longhorns face a stiffer test when the Georgia Bulldogs come to town for a primetime matchup. 

2. Oregon (Big Ten Champion): The most encouraging takeaway from the Ducks’ win over Ohio State? They definitely didn’t play their ‘A’ game and still beat the Buckeyes. This team will continue to get better, and if that Dillon Gabriel to Evan Stewart connection is real? Lookout. 

3. Miami (ACC Champion): The Canes enjoyed a bye week and they play at Louisville this weekend — a game in the preseason that looked much more challenging. Miami could hold this spot until it (likely) plays Clemson in the ACC title game.

4. BYU (Big 12 Champion): The Cougs mauled Arizona to stay unbeaten. Their schedule (which projected as daunting this offseason) is opening up too, as Oklahoma State, UCF, Utah and Kansas have all badly underachieved this year.

The At-Larges

5. Ohio State: The Buckeyes were a couple of plays away from escaping Autzen Stadium with a victory. Outside of the final few plays, Will Howard was fantastic. The defense might not be elite, though, and the injury to left tackle Josh Simmons could loom large.

6. Penn State: These Nittany Lions just might be different after all? After trailing USC by two scores, Drew Allar rallied Penn State to a thrilling win in overtime. 

7. Alabama: The Crimson Tide easily could’ve lost a second-straight game as a three-touchdown favorite. They held on to beat South Carolina, though, but if they play the way they have the last two weeks they’ll 2-3 more times this season.  

8. Georgia: The Bulldogs led Mississippi State 34-10 and then thought the game was over — only there was another two quarters to play. While the game was never in doubt, a lackluster second half (a 41-31 final) wasn’t what Kirby Smart was looking for in advance of this weekend’s game at No. 1 Texas. 

9. Iowa State: Two Big 12 teams in the field? Right now, yes. I do believe the committee would have both undefeated teams in the bracket. The Cyclones went to West Virginia and won at night — no easy task. They remain on track to play for the Big 12 title, but they’ll have to win a couple of tough home games (Texas Tech, Kansas State) against teams nipping at their heels. 

10. Clemson: The Tigers just keep thrashing teams, as quarterback Cade Klubnick is now out-performing Trevor Lawerence and DeShaun Watson numbers in his second season as Clemson’s starter. 

11. LSU: Brian Kelly’s team leapfrogs his former team Notre Dame in this week’s field after their comeback win over Ole Miss. Garrett Nussmeier was nails late with a couple fourth-down conversions and the touchdown throw in overtime, but the bigger story was LSU’s defense — which bottled up the Rebels’ high-octane attack for most of the night. 

12. Boise State (Highest Group of 5 Champion): The Broncos’  28-7 win over Hawaii was closer than the final score indicated, but they remain the G5 selection based on their wins over Georgia Southern and Washington State, as well as the fact they lost to a now No. 2 Oregon team by just three points. Army and Navy continue to creep into the conversation for this spot, though. Their games against Notre Dame later this season will loom large.

First Four Out: Notre Dame, Tennessee, Iowa State, Texas A&M

Group of 5 Contenders: Army, Navy, UNLV, Liberty

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Iowa State at No. 8 Georgia
Winner faces No. 1 Texas in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Alabama
Winner faces No. 2 Oregon in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Penn State
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl