College Football Playoff Rankings after Week 8: Top 4 seeds, at-large bids, bracket prediction

In the inaugural year of the 12-team College Football Playoff, we’ve reached the point of the 2024 season where the rankings will be ripe with controversy each week. 

With Halloween just around the corner, some 30 teams remain in the mix for a potential at-large berth or automatic bid. 

Resumes will be nit-picked and compared. History (as in the playoff committee’s track-record of not giving “lesser conferences like the Big 12 or ACC” the benefit of the doubt) must be strongly considered. 

Week 8 brings a fresh set of volatility and movement. There’s another change at No. 1. 

Also, Alabama is no longer in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings projections. Indiana is undefeated, and should be in the field if its helmet were Maize & Blue, but with the nation’s 109th strength of schedule would the committee definitely put the Hoosiers in the dance over the likes of Tennessee or LSU, which have better wins?

What about Iowa State vs. BYU? Would both be locks after Week 8? Or just the Big 12 Champ?

Remember: The CFB committee won’t actually release its rankings for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff until November, but each week this fall, I’ll seed the field based on how I believe the committee would stack the bracket today. Again, HOW THE COMMITTEE would stack the field.

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Also, my On3 colleague Andy Staples will release his own weekly bracketology, too. 

Seeding is important here, as are the specific details — which ESPN’s own commentators screwed up in Week 0 describing how the field would be set. 

The quickie cliff notes version is the highest-ranked conference champions get the Top 4 seeds. The next-highest ranked champ (likely a Group of 5 representative but not guaranteed) also gets an automatic berth. 

The remaining seven bids will go to at-large teams.

So here’s how I project the 2024 College Football Playoff Rankings would like after Week 8:

The Top 4 Seeds

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion): There’s a case that Georgia, with two Top 10 wins, could actually be the committee’s No. 1 team this week considering how strongly they value Top 25 wins, but Oregon has maybe the second-best resume in the country — and the Ducks are still undefeated. Dan Lanning’s team is one of just three programs (along with UGA and BYU) with multiple wins against current Top 25 teams — both of which (No. 4 Ohio State, No. 17 Boise State) are projected playoff teams again this week. 

2. Georgia (SEC Champion): Maybe the most impressive takeaway from the Bulldogs’ 30-15 win at No. 1 Texas was that they played (collectively) their ‘B’ game down a couple starters they expect to return later this year. They’ll enjoy an idle date before the Cocktail Party against Florida in two weeks. The goal in the meantime? Get healthy and get rid of whatever bad juju Carson Beck has right now. 

3. Miami (ACC Champion): If Clemson had played a single quality opponent in the last six weeks, the Tigers probably take the ‘Canes spot here — even though Miami is still undefeated. But as is, both teams’ resumes are fairly weak, so Miami holds onto the No. 3 seed. Cam Ward continues to live in the Matrix and Damien Martinez had his best showing in a Canes uniform in the seesaw shootout against Louisville. After three-straight weeks of scares, Miami hosts Florida State this weekend — which should be a breezy win over its in-state rival (a wild statement had you said that back in August). 

4. BYU (Big 12 Champion): The Cougs needed a some late heroics from their ‘BYU Jew’ Jake Retzlaff, who threw a 35-yard touchdown with 10 seconds remaining to give them a 38-35 win over Oklahoma State. Retzlaff called the victory, “Magical. It’s spiritual.” To hold onto the Big 12 at-large berth, the Cougs need to keep the faith alive. 

The At-Larges

5. Ohio State: The Buckeyes come out of their bye week facing a battered Nebraska team that just got humiliated against Indiana. A much tougher test awaits a week later with a road trip to Penn State. 

6. Texas: The Longhorns’ ‘Joe Moore Award’ front-running offensive line got humbled in the loss to Georgia, allowing seven sacks, 10 tackles for loss and close to 20 other pressures. That unit, plus quarterback Quinn Ewers, who was briefly benched, needs to get back on track against a testy Vanderbilt team this weekend. 

7. Penn State: The Nittany Lions were idle after rallying to beat USC last weekend, and now they must go to Madison to face a Wisconsin team that’s won three straight games by three touchdowns. With Ohio State coming to Happy Valley the next week, it’s a tricky look-ahead spot for James Franklin’s team. 

8. Tennessee: This is where the rankings could start to get very controversial. Should the Vols be in the field ahead of an undefeated Indiana or Iowa State? Probably not, but again, the committee has set the precedent that an undefeated team isn’t guaranteed to be ranked ahead of a one-loss team with more impressive wins. Alabama might not be Alabama, but a comeback win over the Tide still counts for something — especially in Week 8. 

9. Clemson: The Tigers continue to boat-race teams, trailing Virginia early before crushing the Cavs with 35-unanswered points in 48-31 win. Clemson is on a six-game heater since the loss to Georgia, but its schedule is about to stiffen — pesky Louisville, resurgent Virginia Tech, undefeated Pitt and then South Carolina’s havoc defense. 

10. LSU: The Tigers hold at their same spot from last weekend after their businesslike effort at Arkansas. In a letdown spot after the emotional win over Ole Miss, Garrett Nussmeier, freshman tailback Caden Durham and a Whit Weeks led defense (just 277 yards allowed, three takeaways) beat their rival by four scores. 

11. Notre Dame: Still no Indiana or Illinois: Criminal? Again, maybe, but the Irish are also blasting teams (despite continuing to lose starters to injuries each week) and their Week 1 victory at Texas A&M (who has not lost since) is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. They will have two more opportunities for quality wins in the next month, too, with undefeated Navy (this weekend) and Army on the schedule.

12. Boise State (Highest Group of 5 Champion): The Broncos were off Saturday but they have a monster matchup at UNLV on Friday night that could decide their CFP fate (and the Mountain West). The winner of that game will have a very strong case to be the G5 rep — as long as they win the conference championship game, too. 

First Four Out: Iowa State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Alabama

Group of 5 Contenders: Army, Navy, UNLV, Liberty

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Penn State
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Texas
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl