College Football Playoff Rankings after Week 9: Top 4 seeds, at-large bids, bracket prediction

After a Sweaty Saturday for several top College Football Playoff contenders (Ohio State and Texas) and a Statement Saturday for teams looking to crack the 12-team field (welcome, Indiana and Texas A&M), this marks the final week before the committee will officially release its inaugural rankings next Tuesday on Election Night. 

Yippee!

Week 9 didn’t feature any upsets that impacted the next set of College Football Playoff Rankings projections, but a couple close calls and a few blowout wins (way to handle business, BYU and Notre Dame) has created more jockeying and movement in the 12-team field. 

Again: The CFB committee will release its first rankings for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff next week. As has been the case all season, I seed the field based on how I believe the committee would stack the bracket today. I repeat, HOW THE COMMITTEE would stack the field.

Also, On3 colleague Andy Staples continutes to release his own weekly bracketology, too. 

Seeding is important here, as are the specific details — which ESPN’s own commentators screwed up in Week 0 describing how the field would be set. 

The quickie cliff notes version is the highest-ranked conference champions get the Top 4 seeds. The next-highest ranked champ (likely a Group of 5 representative but not guaranteed) also gets an automatic berth. 

The remaining seven bids will go to at-large teams.

So here’s how I project the 2024 College Football Playoff Rankings would like after Week 9:

The Top 4 Seeds

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion): The Ducks look like the most complete team in the country as we enter November. Since rallying to beat Ohio State, they blanked Purdue on a short week and then just bulldozed a solid Illinois team last weekend. Their offensive line woes have been assuaged and their defense is rounding into form. Considering the rest of its schedule, Oregon basically has a month to prepare for the Big Ten title game. 

2. Georgia (SEC Champion): The Bulldogs enjoyed their final idle date, but now they finish the season on a rough five-game stretch that includes a resurgent Florida, at No. 19 Ole Miss and vs. No. 7 Tennessee. The one hold-up for the ‘Dawgs: They could lose out on the SEC tiebreaker to LSU if both teams run the table the rest of the way.

3. Miami (ACC Champion): The Hurricanes are the Sunshine State Champs after beating up on Florida State by three touchdowns. They’re ranked in the Top 5 of the AP Poll for the first time since 2017, and they have the easiest runway to a 12-0 season of any remaining undefeated team. Can they handle their business the rest of the way? Having Damien Martinez (148 rushing yards and two touchdowns) emerging as the dude everyone though Miami was getting six months ago is certainly encouraging. 

4. BYU (Big 12 Champion): The Cougs quieted a lot of doubters (including those in the desert who set lines) by going to UCF as an underdog against a sub-.500 team and boat-racing the Knights 37-24 in a game much more lopsided than the final score indicates. Their path to 12-0 is right in front of them — with remaining games against three of the four worst teams in the Big 12 this season.

The At-Larges

5. Ohio State: Should the Buckeyes drop after their disappointing performance in a close win over Nebraska? Probably, but as I’ve stated previously, the committee has been reluctant to drop teams that win. Ohio State has real offensive line issues, which might be very problematic going up against Penn State’s defense this weekend. A loss in Happy Valley likely knocks the Buckeyes out of the 12-team field. 

6. Texas: Similarly to Ohio State, Texas didn’t have strong showing Saturday, but the Longhorns did win on the road and Vandy is better than Nebraska. They now have a week to rest and try to find some offensive answers before a stretch-run that concludes with a monumental matchup on Thanksgiving weekend against Texas A&M.

7. Penn State: For the second time in three weeks, the Nittany Lions rallied from a halftime deficit to win a Big Ten game — this time coming back against Wisconsin with backup quarterback Beau Pribula. Drew Allar hurt is (ankle or knee?) late in the second quarter, and his status for Ohio State will be the storyline for the rest of the week. 

8. Notre Dame: The Irish did not respect the troops, vaporizing Navy 51-14. Riley Leonard is starting to heat up (nine total touchdowns to one pick in the month of October), while Notre Dame’s defense keeps stone-walling opponents despite missing multiple key starters. The win over Texas A&M continues to look better and better, too. 

9. Tennessee: The Vols were off this weekend, and there’s a case that Clemson could be slotted in this very spot as well. But on a blind resume test, Tennessee has more impressive wins. It beat NC State by a much bigger margin and also has a Top 15 win over Alabama. 

10. Indiana: The Hoosiers enter November as the only Power Conference team yet to trail for a single minute all season. That’s rather remarkable, especially considering Curt Cignetti’s team beat a decent Washington squad with 31-14 with a backup quarterback Saturday. Kurtis Rourke (hand injury) is expected to return at some point, but Indiana can afford to be patient with its senior quarterback until the Ohio State game at the end of the month. 

11. Texas A&M: My oh my how 30 minutes can totally change the outlook on a program and team’s ceiling. The Aggies looked toast in the first half against LSU, but Mike Elko’s decision to bench Conner Weigman for Marcel Reed flipped a switch in College Station — as Texas A&M boat-raced the Tigers in the second half for a resounding 38-23 win. With their defensive line, run game and Reed’s X-factor ability, the Aggies might be the most dangerous team in the country.

12. Boise State (Highest Group of 5 Champion): In the most anticipated Group of 5 showdown in maybe a decade (or ever?), the Broncos slipped past UNLV to take command of the “highest-ranked G5 champ” spot. Ashton Jeanty had just 128 yards in his worst game of the season, yet the Heisman hopeful still powered Boise State to a big win.

First Four Out: Clemson, Iowa State, Alabama, Pitt

Group of 5 Contenders: Army, Tulane, UNLV, Louisiana

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Penn State
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 6 Texas
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl