College Football Playoff: The 22 teams who still have a chance to make the field
The fourth edition of the College Football Playoff Committee’s rankings will be revealed Tuesday night.
Before seeing how the people who make the 12-team bracket feel about the teams, we have to ask which programs are still in the hunt. It’s a heck of a lot more than would still be alive at this point in the season during the four-team era.
Last week, there were 22 teams were still alive. This week, there are still 22. Though there was a chaotic week, teams like Alabama and Ole Miss are still hanging on by a thread in the CFP race. Here’s a complete inventory of the teams still alive to compete for the national championship.
Big Ten
Oregon: Oregon had a bye week this week, but the Ducks are 11-0 heading into the Washington game this week. Oregon has basically already clinched a spot in the College Football Playoff. The only thing in question is whether it will win the Big Ten.
Indiana: Indiana‘s first — no, only — true test of the season came on Saturday at Ohio State and the Hoosiers were blown out. That would have otherwise been a potential death blow to Indiana’s CFP chances, but the Hoosiers got some help in the form of losses from Ole Miss and Alabama. It should make the Playoff if Indiana finishes 11-1 on the season.
Penn State: Penn State got into a closer-than-expected game on the road against Penn State, but a late fake punt helped the Nittany Lions survive and advance to 10-1. Penn State has a home game against Maryland on Saturday. It is comfortably in the 12-team field.
Ohio State: Ohio State is 10-1 and has two wins over top-five opponents on its resume. The only loss it has is a one-point defeat at Oregon. The Buckeyes could lose to Michigan on Saturday and still feel safe getting into the Playoff. It’s looking like we’re going to get an Ohio State-Oregon rematch in the Big Ten title game. Funny enough, the loser may land at the No. 5 seed and have an easier path to the CFP semifinals.
SEC
Texas A&M: Texas A&M has to be down in the dumps after its loss to Auburn in four overtimes on Saturday night. The good news? The Aggies host Texas this weekend in what should be the environment of the season. If they find a way to beat Texas, they punch their ticket to the SEC Championship Game against Georgia. Texas A&M controls its own CFP destination.
Georgia: Georgia was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the SEC chaos on Saturday because it paved the way for Georgia to play in the SEC Championship Game. If Georgia wins in Atlanta, it will likely be the No. 2 seed in the CFP and get a first-round bye. It has a game against Georgia Tech this weekend, but it’s done in SEC play.
Texas: Though Texas got beaten handily the only time it played another Playoff contender this year, the Longhorns have blown out just about everyone on their schedule. They played a closer-than-expected game against Kentucky this past weekend, but they still pulled away and won comfortably. Texas is probably the favorite to win the SEC right now, but the game at Texas A&M in the regular-season finale will tell us everything we need to know. Even with a loss to Texas A&M, Texas has a good chance to still make the CFP.
Tennessee: Tennessee felt like it was going to have a hard time getting into the Playoff at this time a week ago. But when Ole Miss and Alabama lost, the Volunteers stepped right back into the picture. Tennessee has a tricky game against Vanderbilt this weekend. If it wins, it’ll finish 10-2 on the season and be firmly in the 12-team field.
Alabama: Alabama went to Oklahoma on Saturday night and failed to score a touchdown in a 24-3 loss to the Sooners. Though it would probably be okay to take the Crimson Tide completely off this list, are we 100 percent sure they are done? Are we 100 percent sure Alabama — with a win over Georgia — can’t find a way to sneak back into this thing? Would a 9-3 Alabama be chosen over a two-loss ACC team? Probably not, but it’s not out of the question. I want to take the Crimson Tide off the list. I just can’t.
Ole Miss: Ole Miss went to Florida and lost on Saturday, torpedoing all the momentum the Rebels had. It seemed like Ole Miss was primed to make a run in January, but now the Rebels are on the outside looking in. Like Alabama, Ole Miss should probably come off this list after losing to the Gators, but it destroyed Georgia in Oxford. It’s just impossible to completely eliminate a 9-3 SEC team with a blowout win over Georgia right now.
Big 12
BYU: The Cougars started the year 9-0 with wins over SMU and Kansas State. They were finding ways to win close games in the Big 12. But now, BYU has lost two games and needs some help to get into the Big 12 Championship Game. BYU faces Houston this weekend with a chance to still get to the conference title game, so it can’t be eliminated yet.
Iowa State: Iowa State’s two-game losing streak has now turned into a two-game winning streak and the Cyclones have fought their way back into the Big 12 and CFP pictures. Though the Cyclones have been forgotten by many, they are very much alive in this thing.
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Colorado: A week ago, it really felt like Colorado was going to make the Playoff. But the Buffaloes went to Kansas City over the weekend and couldn’t stop Kansas, losing to the Jayhawks in pretty convincing fashion. Deion Sanders’ team has an uphill battle when it comes to getting into the Big 12 title game. It needs some help. The odds of that are slim, but the Buffaloes technically aren’t dead yet.
Arizona State: There was a point in this season when Arizona State was unjustly left off this list. Imagine being dumb enough to make that mistake. Thankfully, I rectified that issue two weeks ago and the Sun Devils have become the hottest team in America. With a win over BYU on Saturday, Arizona State went into the driver’s seat in the Big 12 race. The Sun Devils could be the No. 4 seed in the CFP.
ACC
Miami: Miami was cruising this season. Then, it lost to Georgia Tech three weeks ago. Funny enough, Pittsburgh lost to Virginia later that evening. So, in two television windows, Miami went from out of the CFP to the favorite to win the ACC again. Miami lived through a wide range of emotions, but the Hurricanes — who hold a tiebreaker over Clemson right now — still go to Charlotte if it beats Syracuse on Saturday.
SMU: In its first year in the ACC, SMU is leading the way in late-November. The Mustangs have yet to lose a game in ACC play. Their only loss on the season is BYU, which still isn’t a bad loss. SMU got past Virginia over the weekend and now only has Cal remaining on its schedule. Things are looking pretty good for a matchup between SMU and Miami in the ACC title game. If SMU wins the ACC, it’s in the College Football Playoff. If it loses, it still may get in.
Clemson: The Tigers have two losses, but only one is in ACC play. Clemson beat The Citadel on Saturday, which had no impact on the Tigers lurking in the ACC race. Unfortunately for Clemson, it needs help to make the ACC Championship Game. Weirder things have happened, but the Tigers don’t control their own destiny in the conference or the Playoff race. They aren’t completely dead, though.
Independent
Notre Dame: Notre Dame kept cruising over the weekend with a blowout win over Army, a team that came into the weekend ranked in the CFP Poll. Notre Dame has now won nine-straight. Notre Dame has also beaten Texas A&M this year, so it could finish the season with victories over the Aggies and Army. Notre Dame has a game at USC this weekend. If it wins, the Irish are in the Playoff.
Group of 5
Boise State: Running back Ashton Jeanty rushed for 169 yards and a touchdown in Boise State’s 17-13 win over Wyoming on Saturday. he Broncos’ lone blemish on their resume is a last-second loss at Oregon early in the season. Boise State is the clear leader from the Group of 5 to grab that Playoff spot. It just has to keep winning.
UNLV: UNLV got a ton of help in its CFP quest when Fresno State beat Colorado State on Saturday night. UNLV was one of the interesting stories of the season, but two heart-breaking Friday night losses to Syracuse and Boise State has knocked the Rebels out of the spotlight. But if UNLV runs the table and beats Boise State in the Mountain West Championship Game — in Boise — there’s a really good chance they are the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion at the end of the year. Even with two losses.
Army: Army played Notre Dame in Yankee Stadium on Saturday and was blown off the field. The Black Knights, though, still remain unbeaten in American Athletic Conference play and have a chance to be a one-loss Group of 5 Champion. The odds of Army making the Playoff seem slim right now, but it’s not technically eliminated yet.
Tulane: You may not be paying attention to Tulane after it lost games to Kansas State and Oklahoma before reaching conference play. The Wave, though, have won eight-straight games and are unbeaten in AAC play. Like Army and Navy, Tulane would need some help with some weird Mountain West losses. But it is still alive.