Five takeaways from third College Football Playoff rankings

A week ago it was Georgia. This week it is Tennessee who is on the outside looking if the College Football Playoff started on Wednesday.

There are currently five two-loss SEC teams in the top 15 of the CFP rankings, with the third edition released Tuesday night. Only two weeks separate the playoff committee from revealing the official 12-team playoff bracket. And still, skepticism about the rankings and comparisons from strength of schedule to quality of wins remain.

“I think watching the games and watching the teams play carries the day for most of us,” College Football Playoff selection committee chair Warde Manuel said Tuesday night. “We look at the data, we look at the stats, we see how other people compare and strength of schedules and all of those things. But we also have to watch the games and see how teams are performing in all facets of the game.

“That lends itself to the discussion of how people see the teams perform. And it’s a lot of debate, a lot of discussion. People see different ways. But that’s the value of having 13 members of this committee in the discussion that goes on.”

On3 is breaking down the five biggest takeaways from the third rankings reveal:

IF the College Football Playoffs started today🏆

Thoughts? ⬇️https://t.co/W5cg5NDyLb pic.twitter.com/02zsHSsVLQ

— On3 (@On3sports) November 20, 2024

Indiana must look the part against Ohio State

Indiana is 10-0 for the first time in program history. Head coach Curt Cignetti has turned around the future of the program in his first season, in part thanks to bringing players with him from James Madison and utilizing the transfer portal. Cignetti inked a new eight-year contract over the weekend that runs through the 2032 season and will pay him an average of $8 million per year with an annual $1 million retention bonus, putting the total value of the new contract at $72 million.

That type of commitment is unprecedented for the Indiana football program. The Hoosiers were slated at No. 5 in Tuesday night’s College Football Playoff rankings and would host Ole Miss if the playoff started Wednesday. But Indiana will have to go through two more weeks of bracketology before the final playoff field is revealed.

Indiana enters Saturday’s top-five matchup at Ohio State with a strength of schedule of 106. Playing perfect football to this point should matter. But Saturday’s game will be the first and only game against a ranked opponent this season for Indiana. Whether it is right or wrong that the committee will play hypotheticals on if the Hoosiers can compete in the playoff, they will as these final weeks approach. And winning, losing close or being blown out will surely make some impact.

Tennessee needs to root for Army

The College Football Playoff committee put Tennessee at No. 11 on Tuesday night, but because the top five conference champions make the field the Volunteers would be the first team out if the postseason started Wednesday. Plenty can change in these next two weekends, but one game this Saturday could drastically change the outlook for Tennessee. No. 19 Army plays No. 6 Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium. A win from the Black Knights would possibly push Notre Dame out of the playoff. The Fighting Irish lost to a Northern Illinois team earlier this season which is now 6-5 and seventh in the MAC standings. Notre Dame is a 14.5-point favorite entering Saturday, according to FanDuel.

Can Big 12, ACC champion grab first-round bye?

BYU lost at home this past weekend to Kansas. The Jayhawks are better than their 4-6 record shows, but the College Football Playoff committee saw the loss as a serious mark against BYU. The Cougars dropped eight spots, going from No. 6 to No. 14. BYU is not the Big 12 favorite. ESPN gives Colorado a 33.6% chance to make the playoff; the Cougars’ chances are now at 30.7%. BYU still has to get past 8-2 Arizona State before closing out the season at home against Houston.

In Tuesday night’s rankings, BYU was the fifth-ranked conference champion and would be the No. 12 seed if the playoff started Wednesday. That also means Colorado reaching the first-round bye is also a long shot at this point.

Meanwhile, Miami would be the No. 3 seed in the CFP bracket. But the Hurricanes still have games against Wake Forest and Syracuse. If they slip up and SMU or Clemson sneak into the playoff, would they get a first-round bye? The committee put SMU at No. 13 and Clemson at No. 17.

Will conference title runner-up crack CFP?

A key talking point Tuesday night was what making the conference title game and losing would mean for a three-loss team. Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin spoke about the scenario earlier this week, saying he discussed the situation with other head coaches. Six teams are still competing for two spots in the SEC title game.

“They don’t want to be in it,” Kiffin said of the SEC. “You know, the reward to get a bye [in the CFP] versus the risk to get knocked out completely.”

For teams like Ole Miss, Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama, would a SEC championship game loss have them looking from the outside in on Selection Sunday? Warde Manuel called it a “valuable data point” when asked on Tuesday night.

“We have a lot of value with the teams that make a championship game, that says a lot,” the Michigan athletic director said. “Playing 12 games in a season and making the championship game is a really valuable data point. Number two, we’re going to evaluate the games and how teams perform on the field. That’s what the commissioners have asked us to do. They didn’t ask us to stop right before the championship game, they asked us to rank the teams through the championship game.

” …Teams that make that championship game, the committee looks at them and puts them in high esteem.”

Skepticism remains about committee

Tuesday night drew skepticism about the committee’s rankings. For example, Alabama beat Mercer and moved up three spots while Georgia knocked off Tennessee and only climbed up two in the rankings. And on the flip side, Warde Manuel’s explanation about why Texas is the No. 3 seed and Georgia is No. 11 ruffled some. Miami, now two spots above Georgia, has not played a top-25 team yet.

“As the committee analyzed the body of work of Texas vs where Georgia is at the present time with two losses, even to top-25 teams, we came out that Texas was still a very strong team deserving of a three seed,” Manuel said.