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College Football Playoff: Using BCS formula to predict final College 12-team CFP bracket

IMG_6598by:Nick Kosko•12/08/24•

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Now that all of the six computer rankings are in, the BCS formula is in and the top 12 teams were revealed.

So if you were ever curious as to how the BCS rankings would rank the top 12 teams ahead of the College Football Playoff, you have your answer. Now that the conference championship games are done, everything is set.

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Below are the BCS’ top 12 teams in the country ahead of the College Football Playoff.

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Notre Dame
4. Texas
5. Ohio State
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. Arizona State
11. Alabama
12. SMU

Oregon is the easy pick for the No. 1 team, going 13-0 on the year and winning the Big Ten in their first year as conference members.

“I don’t have a lot to say except how proud I am of these guys,” head coach Dan Lanning said after winning the Big Ten. “We’ve talked about moments this year where guys had to put each other on their back and I thought the offense did an unbelievable job, thought the defense made a critical stop when it mattered most. That offense is really hard to stop and it was a battle so I’m really proud of our players.”

Georgia vaulted up in the BCS formula, which should be in line with the playoff rankings Sunday as well. The Bulldogs beat Texas for the second time this season to win the SEC.

What’s interesting about these rankings are Alabama is No. 10 based on its strength of schedule and was in no danger of missing the playoff, according to the BCS formula.

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“It’s a hard decision that I understand the committee has to make, totally get it, you know, trying to balance everything,” head coach Kalen DeBoer said on The College GameDay Podcast. “There’s so many really good teams in the in the country, you know, not just at the top, but throughout so, you know, you don’t know how it’s going to come out. But you know certainly pleased and understand, I guess, you know selfishly, and you know from our end, you know where we feel we belong and feeling that we’re one of those teams that certainly should be in the playoff. 

“A little biased, of course, but just also stepping back and having just some perspective, you know with our kind of season that we had, and the teams we play, the wins we had in particular, you know, I just really feel like we belong there, and we have that type of team that can can go the distance given this opportunity.”

Perhaps the biggest news is that there’s no Clemson in this top 12 rankings. Of course, this is by the BCS and not the actual playoff metrics and the Tigers would have to make the playoff based on winning the ACC and being one of the five highest ranked conference champions.

College Football Playoff bracket under BCS formula

Byes

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Boise State
4. Arizona State

First Round Matchups in Playoff

12. Clemson at 5. Notre Dame
11. Alabama at 6. Texas
10. Indiana at 7. Ohio State
9. Tennessee at 8. Penn State

Only four conference champions are represented due to Clemson being out of the rankings, at least in the top 12. Since Clemson is still one of the five highest ranked conference champions, they are in the playoff bracket.

In this case, since they’re ranked No. 13, they would get the final seed. Since SMU dropped due to a loss below Alabama, the Mustangs are out.