Numbers game: Projecting 2022’s 1,000-yard receivers

A good portion of every offseason, no matter the sport, is spent projecting how teams will do. Every fan in every sport knows the drill: Can that team finish first in its division? Can this team avoid a last-place finish? Who makes the playoffs?

Today, we’re doing some individual projections, specifically predicting who will be 1,000-yard receivers this season.

Over the past five full seasons (not counting the COVID-ravaged fall of 2020), there have been an average of 37.2 1,000-yard receivers each season. The high was 41 in 2019; the low was 30 in 2017.

Here’s the prediction of this season’s 1,000-yard receivers, listed alphabetically by league. (We predicted the 1,000-yard rushers Friday and the 3,000-yard passers Saturday.)

Also of note: Players denoted with an asterisk were 1,000-yard receivers last season.

AAC

Houston: Nathaniel Dell*. His nickname is “Tank,” but Dell can fly.

SMU: Rashee Rice. He led the Mustangs in receptions last season and figures to be even busier this fall.

Tulsa: Keylon Stokes. Stokes, a sixth-year senior, is 794 yards away from surpassing Howard Twilley (who has 3,343) as the school’s career leader in receiving yards.

ACC

Boston College: Zay Flowers. A healthy Phil Jurkovec means a big season for Flowers.

Louisville: Tyler Hudson*. Hudson was an FCS All-American at Central Arkansas last season and should be Malik Cunningham’s go-to guy this season.

North Carolina: Josh Downs*. Yes, he will miss Sam Howell. But he’s too good not to get 1,000 yards again.

Virginia: Keytaon Thompson and Dontayvion Wicks*. Wicks again should be one of the best deep threats in the nation (he averaged 21.1 yards on his 57 receptions last season), and Thompson – a former quarterback at Mississippi State – was 27 yards short of 1,000 last season.

Wake Forest: Donavon Greene and A.T. Perry*. Perry is one of the nation’s top receivers, while Greene is back after missing last season with an undisclosed injury. Both are legit deep threats.

Big Ten

Michigan State: Jayden Reed*. Reed was overshadowed by RB Kenneth Walker III last season, but put up solid numbers in his own right.

Ohio State: Jaxon Smith-Njigba* and Marvin Harrison Jr. Smith-Njigba led Ohio State in receptions and receiving yards last season, and Harrison – whose dad is one of the most productive receivers in NFL history – had a coming-out party in the Rose Bowl.

Penn State: Parker Washington. Washington is expected to be the leader of a better-than-you-think Penn State receiving corps.

Big 12

Iowa State: Xavier Hutchinson. He was 13 yards shy of 1,000 last season and should reach that plateau this fall even with a new quarterback.

Oklahoma: Marvin Mims. He should team with new QB Dillon Gabriel to form a dynamic duo in new coordinator Jeff Lebby’s offense.

TCU: Quentin Johnston. New coach Sonny Dykes love to throw it around, and Johnston is going to benefit in a big way.

Texas: Xavier Worthy. Worthy led all freshmen with 981 receiving yards last season.

Texas Tech: Myles Price. There will be a Red Raiders wide receiver who puts up huge numbers in new OC Zach Kittley’s offense, and the bet here is on Price.

Conference USA

FIU: Tyrese Chambers*. He averaged an incredible 23.9 yards on 45 catches for a one-win team last season.

UTSA: Zakhari Franklin*. With star RB Sincere McCormick gone, UTSA figures to lean a bit more on its passing attack this season. And Franklin was a 1,000-yard guy last season anyway.

Western Kentucky: Malachi Corley. He led all freshmen with 73 receptions last season – and that was as the Hilltoppers’ No. 3 receiver. He’s No. 1 now.

Independents

None

Mid-American

Eastern Michigan: Hassan Beydoun*. A former walk-on, Beydoun needs 81 receptions to become the school’s career leader. Yes, that’s a lot – but he had 97 last season.

Kent State: Dante Cephas*. The Golden Flashes have a new starting quarterback, but the offense is built to produce big numbers for the skill-position guys.

Mountain West

Colorado State: Tory Horton. He came with new coach Jay Norvell from Nevada and is well-acquainted with Norvell’s pass-first offense.

Fresno State: Jalen Cropper. He and Jake Haener should be even more productive than they were last season, when Cropper had 899 yards and 11 TDs.

Pac-12

Arizona: Jacob Cowing*. He was plucked out of the transfer portal from UTEP and will team with QB Jayden de Laura – himself a transfer – to rev up Arizona’s passing attack.

USC: Jordan Addison*. Last season’s Biletnikoff Award winner left Pitt via the portal and should pair quite nicely with new QB Caleb Williams.

Washington State: Lincoln Victor. The Cougars are going to throw the ball around with new QB Cameron Ward, and Victor figures to be the No. 1 receiver.

SEC

Alabama: Jermaine Burton. He had 53 receptions in his two seasons at Georgia; he will blow by that number this fall as Bryce Young’s top target.

LSU: Kayshon Boutte. He was on track for a 1,000-yard season in 2021 before he was injured in Game 6 and missed the rest of the year.

Mississippi State: Jaden Walley. There will be a Bulldogs receiver with 1,000 yards, and Walley – who has 107 receptions in first two seasons – is as good a choice as any.

Ole Miss: Jonathan Mingo. Mingo played in six games last season before being injured. He’s 100 percent and primed to put up big numbers in what is expected to again be an explosive offense.

South Carolina: Josh Vann. The Gamecocks haven’t had a 1,000-yard receiver since Pharoh Cooper in 2014.

Tennessee: Cedric Tillman*. Tillman came alive in the second half of the 2021 season, with five 100-yard outings (including a monster 200-yard performance against Georgia) in the final six games.

Sun Belt

James Madison: Kris Thornton*. Thornton has been productive at VMI, then JMU. He has 229 receptions for 2,868 yards and 22 TDs in four seasons.

Old Dominion: Ali Jennings*. With Hayden Wolff now the unquestioned starter at quarterback, Jennings and stud TE Zack Kuntz (a former four-star prospect who began his career at Penn State) should have excellent numbers.