College Football Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 after Statement Saturday

While Week 10 wasn’t quite Elimination Saturday, it definitely was Entertaining Saturday, as a loaded noon window delivered multiple bangers, then we had an awesome final Bedlam and a night late full of fireworks. 

Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma was the lone big upset on the day, but with lots of ranked-on-ranked matchups, there was still plenty of other movement in the Top 25. 

Here’s how I think the new AP Top 25 will look come Sunday:

1. Georgia (Last week: 1)

Behind a pair of fourth-quarter interceptions, the Bulldogs outlasted No. 14 Missouri 31-21 to win their 26th-straight game. Clinging to a six-point lead with under 10 minutes remaining, 325-pound note tackle Nazir Stackhouse intercepted Brady Cook and nearly returned the pick for a touchdown.

The long run back was negated by a penalty, but the game’s first turnover allowed Georgia to effectively ice the game away with another long drive that resulted in a field goal. 

UGA did not play overly well offensively (just 385 total yards, multiple missed opportunities in the red zone) or defensively (the Bulldogs struggled to stop Missouri’s stretch run game), but once again, they proved to be the more composed and disciplined team late. 

The Bulldogs scored a pair of touchdowns in the third quarter to take control of a game that was tied at halftime, and then Kirby Smart’s defense slammed the door with two interceptions and three second-half sacks. Georgia will be tested again next Saturday in a Top 10 showdown with Ole Miss. 

2. Michigan (Last week: 2)

Amid a week chalked with more sign-stealing scandal distractions, reports and all manner of rumors, the Wolverines exited their bye looking like the same old Michigan team — easily dusting Purdue 41-13 in advance of next weekend’s showdown at Penn State. 

J.J. McCarthy passed for a season-high 335 yards and Blake Corum rushed for three touchdowns. Michigan has now won a school-record 21 straight Big Ten games, and the only thing that looks like it could stop the Maize & Blue locomotive is the ongoing off-the-field saga. 

In an email to Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti, Wolverines president Santa Ono implored the conference to wait for the results of the NCAA investigation before taking any action on Jim Harbaugh’s team.

Will that remain the case this week?

3. Ohio State (Last week: 3)

After earning the No. 1 spot in the initial College Football Playoff Rankings, the Buckeyes overcame a sleepy start to cruise past Rutgers 35-16.

They trailed 9-7 at halftime — and the deficit could’ve been worse if not for three stops inside the 5-yard line to hold the Scarlet Knights to field goals. 

But Ohio State flipped the game’s momentum with Jordan Hancock’s 93-yard pick-six early in the third quarter, kickstarting a 28-7 swing to end the game.

Ohio State never trailed again, riding their defense and junior tailback TreVeyon Henderson to their ninth-straight win. Henderson had 208 total yards, finishing as Ohio State’s leading rusher and receiver. Marvin Harrison Jr. was mostly bottled up downfield but hauled in two short touchdown passes in the fourth quarter.

4. Florida State (Last week: 4)

The Seminoles booked their trip to the ACC Championship with a shoulder-shrug performance at Pitt, slipping past the Panthers 24-7 in a rather uninspiring showing. Quarterback Jordan Travis threw for a career-high 360 yards without his leading receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson, but it was mostly a clunky offensive day for FSU until the third quarter. 

In a lookahead spot with Miami on deck next weekend, the ‘Noles were up just 10-7 at halftime, but Travis connected with Markeston Douglas for a 26-yard score and Trey Benson rumbled 55-yards for a touchdown to put the game away. FSU’s defense did show up against the ACC’s worst offense, holding Pitt to 0-11 on third down and forcing three takeaways. 

5. Washington (Last week: 7)

A date with Alex Grinch and USC’s defense was just what the doctor ordered for the Huskies, as Washington rediscovered its offensive mojo in a 52-42 win over the Trojans.

Against USC’s picket-fence defense, Washington actually leaned on its offensive line and tailback Dillion Johnson, who ran wild for 256 yards and four scores. Michael Penix for exactly as many yards (256), while also accounting for three scores. Behind Johnson, a Mississippi State transfer, and a host of explosive receivers, Washington had 18 plays over 10 yards Saturday.

For much of the night, the Huskies’ defense struggled to contain the brilliance of Caleb Williams until they forced a key fumble that set up a short red zone touchdown, allowing Washington to push their lead to two scores to put away USC. 

They moved to 9-0, staying atop the Pac-12. They play a physical Utah team next week. 

6. Oregon (Last week: 8)

The Ducks hung 63 on Cal, turning a 14-13 game early in the second quarter into a 35-13 laugher by halftime. In a game played in a downpour at times, Bo Nix had his first pass intercepted, but no problem, he shook off the turnover to throw a 48-yard touchdown pass on a 2nd-and-37 — the first of six scores on the day for the Heisman hopeful. 

Nix accounted for 389 total yards and six scores, while Bucky Irving chipped in 89 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Ducks have a unique ability to hit the nos and just blitz teams — offensively (600 total yards) and defensively (three takeaways, a blocked field goal).

They still look like the most complete team in the Pac-12, and they remain on track for a rematch with Washington in the Pac-12 title game.

Next week is another tricky test though with a game against against Caleb Williams and USC.

7. Texas (Last week: 7)

The Longhorns nearly coughed up a 24-7 lead but held on to beat Kansas State in overtime, surviving 33-30 without starting quarterback Quinn Ewers. 

Backup Maalik Murphy was red-hot in the first quarter (7 of 9 for 162 yards and a touchdown), only to go ice-cold the rest of the afternoon — throwing two costly interceptions and nearly getting picked off another several times. Texas’ two-headed tandem at tailback paved the way offensively, with Jonathan Brooks (112 yards) and CJ Baxter (94 yards) combing for over 200 yards rushing. 

Texas’ front seven totally bottled up Kansas State’s rushing attack (33 rushing yards) and hounded Will Howard, who played heroically (26 of 42 for 327 yards for four touchdowns and one pick) despite being under duress all game.

With the Wildcats going for the win in overtimes, the Longhorns defense pressured Howard into an incompletion on 4th-and-goal from the 5 to move to 8-1 to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.

8. Alabama (Last week: 9)

Jalen Milroe delivered his best performance as Alabama’s starting quarterback — and he didn’t even deliver his patented deep-ball touchdown in a 42-28 win over rival LSU. 

The sophomore carved up the Tigers with his legs — mostly on broken plays and QB scrambles, rushing for a career-high 155 yards and four touchdowns. He was impossible to tackle in the open field, and zoomed past defenders on multiple long runs.

Alabama finished with 288 yards on the ground, as their offensive line dominated LSU’s front seven. The Tide were terrific on third down (11 of 14) and scored on three straight possessions after halftime, turning a 28-21 deficit into a 42-28 lead and never looking back. 

Nick Saban’s team is rounding into form as we enter the back half of the season. They’ve now avenged both of last season’s losses (Tennessee and LSU) and have the look of a potential SEC champ and CFP contender. 

9. Penn State (Last week: 9)

After surviving a scare from Indiana last weekend, Penn State waxed Maryland 51-15 to setup at Top 10 showdown with Michigan next Saturday. Unlike a week ago, the Nittany Lions didn’t lack energy or offensive fireworks, stopping the Terps on downs on the game’s opening possession and then watching Drew Allar quickly lead the offense down the field for a short score.

Allar finished with four touchdown passes, including three scores before halftime, and had 280 total yards.

After a quiet first two months of the season, Kent State transfer Dante Cephas had his best game in a PSU uniform, catching six passes for 53 yards and two scores. 

Penn State suffocated Maryland defensively, holding the Terps to a ridiculous -2 yards rushing on 10 carries. When you add in their six sacks, Maryland finished -49 yards rushing. Manny Diaz’s havoc defense forced another two picks and two forced fumbles, too.  

10. Ole Miss (Last week: 11)

Quinshon Judkins had his third-straight 100-yard performance, scoring three touchdowns including the game-winner with under two the Rebels, which squandered a 10-point lead in fourth quarter, blocked a field goal as time expired to win their fifth-straight game and remain in the mix for the SEC West. 

Lane Kiffin moved to 4-0 against Jimbo Fisher. After Texas A&M scored a pair of touchdowns to take a 35-31 lead with under five minutes remaining, the Rebels responded with with a nine-play, 75-yard drive to win the game. Jaxson Dart was really solid (387 yards at 11.7 per attempt with touchdowns), and Judkins chipped in 101 yards on the ground. Next up? A trip to Athens against No. 1 Georgia.

The rest of the projected AP Top 25:

11. Louisville (Last week: 18)

For the second-straight week the Cardinals held an ACC opponent without a touchdown, as Louisville breezed past Virginia Tech 34-3 behind a dominant defensive performance. They held the Hokies to under 140 total yards at just 2.7 per play. They intercepted Kyron Drones once and sacked him four times. Without star transfer wideout Jamari Thrash, Jeff Brohm opted to again take the air of out of the football, leaning on Wisconsin transfer tailback Isaac Guerendo (career-high 146 yards and three touchdowns) and Jawhar Jordan (57 yards and one touchdown). 

With the victory, the Cardinals remain in sole possession of second place in the ACC — with two very winnable conference games remaining against Virginia and Miami.

12. Utah (Last week: 13)

Utah’s ex-pig-farmer quarterback Bryson Barnes went hog-wild in a blowout victory over Arizona State, throwing for a career-best four touchdowns in a 55-3 annihilation. Barnes completed his first eight passes and had three scores before halftime, as the Utes delivered the Sun Devils their worst loss in Pac-12 history.  

Utah out-gained ASU 513-83! The Utes rushed for 352 yards and three scores and nearly had as many sacks (five) as first downs allowed (six). They held ASU to just 1 of 16 on third downs, and remain in the hunt for the Pac-12 Championship.

13. Tennessee (Last week: 19)

Joe Milton scored a trio of touchdowns in the first half and the Vols had three defensive scores for the first time in school history, as Tennessee waxed UConn 59-3.

Tailback Jaylen Wright went 82 yards to the house on the second play of the game — one of six touchdowns that went for at least 25 yards (including all three defensive scores). The Vols had 650 yards of offense and 26 first downs. The only thing that Big Orange Nation had to gripe about was the lack of series for 5-star freshman Nico Iamaleava, who threw his first-career touchdown but played just a couple of series before returning to the bench. Tennessee now has a big game at Missouri next weekend. 

Tennessee scored on all five first-half possessions, including three long field goals by Charles Campbell. Without top cornerback Kamal Hadden, who was lost to a season-ending injury earlier this week, the Vols’ secondary did get torched by Kentucky’s struggling passing game, giving up 372 yard and two scores.

14. Oklahoma State (Last week: Unranked)

Mike Gundy was just 3-15 all-time against Oklahoma, but the Cowboys’ head coach got the last laugh in the final Bedlam for the foreseeable future as his Pokes upset the Sooners 27-24. 

Heisman Trophy hopeful Ollie Gordon, who entered the day leading the nation in rushing, shook off an interception on a trick-play halfback pass to finish with 137 yards on the ground (his sixth-straight game over 100) and two touchdowns. In a back-and-forth affair, Gordon put the Pokes on top for good with a 1-yard plunge inside eight minutes remaining.

The Cowboys forced three turnovers, punctuated by a forced fumble midway in the fourth quarter to set up another field goal — a 34-yard kick that proved to be the difference in the game. After starting out the season 2-2, Oklahoma State has won five straight games (with three Top 25 wins) and is tied with Texas atop the Big 12.

15. Oregon State (Last week: 16)

After losing at Arizona last weekend, the Beavers went to Boulder and put the clamps down on Colorado’s offense, holding the Buffs to just 238 total yards in a 26-19 game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. 

After Deion Sanders made the inexplicable move to demote OC Sean Lewis mid-week, Colorado finished with -7 yards rushing — as the Beavers sacked Shedeur Sanders four times and held CU’s tailbacks to a long run of eight yards on the game.  Oregon State’s offense got off to a super slow start, scoring just once on its first eight possessions before finding a semblance of rhythm (one touchdown, a couple field goals) in the second half. Jonathan Smith’s team moved to 7-2 and remain a darkhorse contender in the Pac-12 race.

16. Oklahoma (Last week: 10)

In their final scheduled meeting with in-state rival Oklahoma State, the Sooners got bottled up in Bedlam, losing 27-24 in a seesaw affair with five ties or lead changes.  In their second loss in as many weeks, Oklahoma’s College Football Playoff chances went up in smoke, and the Sooners’ Big 12 title hopes took a major blow, too. For the second straight week, Dillion Gabriel had the ball with the chance to win the game but Drake Stoops was stopped a yard short of the marker at midfield to force the turnover on downs. 

The Sooners actually out-gained the Cowboys, but they had three turnovers — including two by Gabriel in the second half. His fourth-quarter fumble set up an Ok State field goal — which proved to be the difference in the game.

17. Missouri (Last week: 14)

The Tigers gave No. 1 Georgia a fight for the second year in a row, but Brady Cook had two costly picks in the fourth quarter to dash any upset hopes. 

In a 30-21 loss, Cook was just 14 of 30 for 212 yards, with one score and two picks. He made some plays with his legs in the first half, but Georgia adjusted and he was pressured the rest of the game (three sacks). Tailback Cody Schrader did give the Bulldogs fits with his perimeter runs (22 carries for 112 yards), only it wasn’t enough to carry the Tigers. With upcoming home games against Tennessee and Florida, Missouri still has a strong chance to win its way to No. 2 in the  SEC East.

18. LSU (Last week: 15)

Despite the dual-threat heroics of quarterback Jayden Daniels, who had another 300 total yards before halftime, the Tigers were let down by their defense in Tuscaloosa, unable to come up with enough stops in a 42-28 loss. 

Trailing by two scores, Daniels was knocked out of the game in the fourth quarter after taking a vicious hit by Dallas Turner.

He finished with 219 passing yards, with two touchdowns and a costly pick that turned a one-score game into a two-touchdown deficit LSU couldn’t come back from. 

Despite their depth issues in the second, the Tigers never had an answer for Jalen Milroe and Alabama’s rushing attack, allowing 288 yards on the ground for SIX touchdowns. 

19. Kansas (Last week: 22)

There was no letdown by the Jayhawks after snapping their 18-game losing streak to Oklahoma last weekend, as Kansas went to Iowa State and held off a solid Cyclones team to win its seventh game for the first time since 2008. 

In a 28-21 victory Saturday where Iowa State nearly erased a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter, Kansas won consecutive Big 12 games for the first time in 15 years. Jason Bean once again started at quarterback for the injury Jalon Daniels, throwing for 287 yards — highlighted by an 80-yard touchdown pass in the fourth quarter.

20. Arizona (Last week: Unranked)

In Year 3 under Jedd Fisch, the Wildcats became bowl-eligible with a third-straight Top 25 upset win — this time spanking UCLA 27-10. Noah Fifita threw an interception on Arizona’s first possession, only to respond with 300 yards and three touchdowns against the No. 1 defense in the Pac-12. 

The Wildcats’ resurgent defense held the Bruins’ prolific rushing attack to just 114 yards on 29 carries, and they out-gained UCLA 429-271. 

21. Tulane (Last week: 21)

The Green Wave continues to squeak out close wins, protecting a second-half lead against ECU to remain the frontrunner as the Group of 5 representative for the New Year’s Six bowl game. 

In a fierce defensive battle, Tulane dug out of an early 10-0 deficit in the first quarter to pitch a shutout the rest of the game. They held the Pirates to just 47 yards after the first quarter, as Michael Pratt (213 yards and one touchdown) and tailback Makhi Hughes (105 yards on 25 carries) were able to pitch in just enough offensively. 

22. James Madison (Last week: 23)

The Duke blasted a solid Georgia State team 42-14 in Atlanta to remain undefeated, winning their 12-straight game dating back to last season. Quarterback Jordan McCloud was the everything-man for James Madison, nearly doubling the Panthers in yardage by himself (411 to 220). He threw for 307 yards and four touchdowns, while also leading the Dukes in rushing with 104 yards and two scores. 

The only thing that can stop James Madison this season is the NCAA, which foolishly still won’t allow the recently promoted FCS team to compete for the Sun Belt Championship or play in a bowl game without a waiver.

23. North Carolina (Last week: Unranked)

The Tar Heels got the medicine they needed to snap a two-game losing streak, routing FCS Campbell 59-7. Drake Maye tossed four touchdowns — two to star transfer wideout Dez Walker, who was hurt late in the loss to Georgia Tech last weekend. ACC-leading rusher Omarion Hampton chipped in 144 yards and two scores. 

UNC jumped out to a 28-7 lead before piling on 17 points in the third quarter and emptying the bench. The Tar Heels played three quarterbacks and saw 11 different players catch a pass. 

North Carolina now faces a tough finish to the regular season with games against Duke, at Clemson and at NC State.

24. Notre Dame (Last week:14)

Coming off a 58-7 splattering against Pitt, the Irish had a major letdown at Clemson, losing 31-23 to a reeling Tigers team. 

Despite allowing Phil Mafah to run for a career day (187 yards on 36 carries), the Irish played well enough defensively, allowing just 285 total yards with two takeaways. But transfer quarterback Sam Hartman was terrible, throwing a pick-six and finishing just 13 of 30 for 146 yards and two turnovers. 

Notre Dame had to settle for three red-zone field goals in the first half, and it couldn’t muster much of anything outside of two strong drives in the third quarter. The Irish had the ball multiple times in the fourth quarter with a chance to tie the game only to go punt, punt, interception and turnover on downs.

25. Air Force (Last week: 19)

Fresh off their best start since 1985, the Falcons self-immolated against arch-rival Army, ending their undefeated season with a turnover-filled 23-3 loss. 

As an 18-point favorite against a team coming off a loss to UMass, Air Force ended any New Year’s Six hopes with a gaffe-filled performance that featured six turnovers (four fumbles and two picks) and a missed 32-yard field goal. The Falcons were held to just 155 yards rushing and dual-threat quarterback Zac Larrier (four turnovers) lost for the first time as a starter (now 8-1).

Projected to drop out: Kansas State, UCLA, USC