College Football Rankings: Predicting AP Poll Top 25 after Week 2
What was billed as a Show Me Week 2 turned into a Survival Saturday, as a host of Top 25 teams (the comeback kids of the Big 12, plus Oregon, Penn State, Alabama, Oklahoma and LSU) held on to overcome sloppy performances.
And yet, some teams weren’t so fortunate to avoid the carnage early this fall, as Notre Dame, Michigan and NC State all delivered no-show performances.
Each week, I’ll predict the moving and shaking of the AP Poll Top 25. In projecting some of the changes Sunday morning, I see Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Miami all rising, while we can wave goodbye (for now) to Iowa, Kansas, Georgia Tech and NC State.
Here’s how I think the Week 2 AP Poll Top 25 could look come Sunday morning:
1. Georgia (Last week: 1)
Carson Beck tossed five touchdowns to five different Bulldogs receivers, as UGA cruised to a 48-3 win over FCS Tennessee Tech. With a running clock in the second half, Georgia held the Eagles to just 134 yards and had 10 tackles for loss, three sacks and a forced fumble.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Former Florida tailback Trevor Etienne returned from his one-game suspension and led the Bulldogs with 78 yards rushing on just five carries. The junior ripped off a 45-yard gain in the second quarter, casually flashing his downhill vision and speed.
2. Texas (Last week: 2)
The Longhorns thumped No. 10 Michigan 31-12, as Quinn Ewers, a mauling offensive line and a cast of versatile playmakers snapped the Wolverines’ 16-game winning streak in dominant fashion.
Ewers (246 yards and three scores) was as impressive as he was in the win at Alabama last season, and Texas’ defense looked faster and much-improved in the secondary. With Steve Sarkisian coaching circles around most defensive coordinators, the Longhorns have the look of a legit national title contender.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Texas was 8-of-10 on third downs in the first half, picking up multiple key conversions that paved the way for a 24-3 lead at the break.
3. Ohio State (Last week: 3)
Is Jeremiah Smith already one of the best receivers in college football? The 18-year-old freshman and nation’s top 2024 recruit turned a five-yard catch into a thrilling 70-yard touchdown in the Buckeyes’ 56-0 blanking over Western Michigan. Smith now has three touchdown receptions and is averaging over 100 receiving yards in two games at Ohio State. The nation also got a glimpse of the Buckeyes’ elite tailback room, as Quinshon Judkins (nine carries for 108 yards and two scores) and TreVeyon Henderson (six carries for 66 yards and two scores) were part of a run that rolled up nearly 275 yards rushing and six touchdowns.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Will Howard won a competitive quarterback battle at Ohio State this offseason, but 5-star freshman Julian Sayin got to showcase his arm talent against the Broncos’ backups — recording his first-career touchdown on a 55-yard pass to backup tight end Bennett Christian.
4. Ole Miss (Last week: 6)
BREAKING: Lane Kiffin is definitely trying to build an early Heisman Trophy candidacy for Jaxson Dart. Ole Miss’ head coach dialed up pass after pass for the junior quarterback, who broke an SEC record with 24-straight completions in a 52-3 rout over MTSU. Dart finished with 377 yards (14.0 yards per attempt!!!) and one touchdown, while the Rebels’ defense chipped in nine tackles for loss and two takeaways.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Rebels overhauled their running back room this offseason, losing Quinshon Judkins to Ohio State but bringing in a host of ‘backs including the return Miami transfer Henry Parrish Jr. The boomerang Ole Miss transfer delivered a career day with 165 yards rushing and four touchdowns.
5. Alabama (Last week: 4)
Why do the Tide turtle offensively every time they play the USF Bulls? For the second straight year, Alabama was locked in a one-score affair in the fourth quarter before exploding for 28 unanswered points to turn a close game into a 44-16 laugher. But I’m not sure many Tide fans are smiling this weekend in Tuscaloosa. Alabama’s offensive line struggled to block the Bulls until late (three sacks, six TFLs allowed and countless holding and false start penalties) and Jalen Milroe had few answers facing constant pressure.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The next great Alabama linebacker trio? The Tide were bailed out by their three-headed trio at linebacker, as Jihaad Campbell, Que Robinson and Justin Jefferson combined for 28 tackles, four TFLs and 2.0 sacks against USF.
6. Penn State (Last week: 8)
The Nittany Lions had a wobbly performance against a middling MAC team, needing to rally and then hold on to beat Bowling Green 34-27. Tom Allen’s defense couldn’t stop his former Indiana quarterback, as Conner Bazelak shredded PSU’s for nearly 200 yards and two touchdowns in the first half.
Penn State came up with a couple of key turnovers after halftime, and junior tailback Nick Singleton provided some much-needed heroics (14-yard touchdown reception, 41-yard touchdown run) to avoid the cataclysmic upset.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Penn State was 35.5-point favorites Saturday, while the Nittany Lions rallied from a two-score deficit, much of the goodwill James Franklin’s program engineered after waxing West Virginia nearly evaporated with such a dispiriting performance.
7. Missouri (Last week: 9)
For the second-straight week, Mizzou’s new-look defense stole the show in a rout over an undermanned opponent — this time with the Tigers blanking Buffalo 38-0. Missouri allowed just 55 yards passing, held the Bulls to just 1-of-12 on third down and had three sacks. Led by quarterback Brady Cook (five carries for 62 yards and two scores), Missouri rolled up 263 yards rushing and five touchdowns.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: All-American wideout Luther Burden scored a three-yard touchdown on an end-around early in the second quarter but left the game with an apparent illness and did not return.
8. Miami (Last week: 12)
The Return of ‘The U?’ Welcome back to the Top 10, Miami, which projects to climb its highest in the rankings since 2020 after demolishing FAMU 56-3. Cam Ward delivered his second-straight 300-yard, four-touchdown performance, while the Hurricanes rushed for 224 yards and four scores (led by Oregon State transfer Damien Martinez).
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Tyler Baron was a late addition from the transfer portal, but the former Tennessee edge — who committed to Ole Miss, then Louisville and then Miami this offseason — looks like a steal for the Hurricanes after two games. Baron had a sack and 2.5 TFLs against Florida, and on Saturday, he recorded 3.0 sacks and 3.5 TFLs.
9. Tennessee (Last week: 14)
Nico Iamaleava generates all the headlines, but the Vols smoked No. 24 NC State 51-10 behind a smothering statement performance from their defensive. Tim Banks’ unit is going to give Grayson McCall nightmares for the rest of the season, holding NC State’s quarterback to 110 total yards with three takeaways. Tennessee sacked McCall three times, and lived in the backfield all night with 13 tackles for loss. Iamaleava absolutely had his moments, too, overcoming a pick-six to finish with nearly 300 total yards and three scores.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Is Dylan Sampson the best tailback no one talks about? The junior has terrific vision, balance and body control (MASH THE SPIN BUTTON), as he gashed the Wolfpack for 132 yards and two touchdowns with another 37 yards receiving.
10. Utah (Last week: 11)
It took one week for Cam Rising to suffer another injury scare, this time leaving the Utes’ 23-12 win over Baylor with a hand injury late in the second quarter. The seventh-year senior, who missed the entire 2023 season with a knee injury, had two passing touchdowns banging his hand on a water cooler on a hit out of bounds. Utah was cruising at the time, and its offense went into complete turtle-mode the rest of the game — gaining just 94 yards in the second half. The good news is head coach Kyle Whittingham said Rising’s injury was “not real serious” but gave no timetable on the quarterback’s potential return.
ONE THING TO KNOW: Utah’s defense totally suffocated Baylor’s offense, holding the Bears to zero first downs until late in the second quarter. They limited Baylor to just 2.7 yards per rush and held them to 4-of-16 on third down.
The rest of the projected AP Top 25:
11. USC (Last week: 13)
The Trojans easily dispatched Utah State, avoiding any letdown spot against a G5 team. Miller Moss went 21-of-29 for 229 yards but USC leaned on a pound-and-ground run game that had over 250 yards rushing and four touchdowns. Mississippi State transfer Woody Marks had another big day (150 total yards and one touchdown), while the Trojans’ retooled defense held the Aggies to under 200 yards with multiple takeaways and three sacks.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: I teased as much in the preseason, but one newcomer USC defender to know is former Oregon State safety Aston Macarenas, Arnold. The veteran led the Trojans in tackles Saturday night and added an interception and 0.5 tackle for loss.
12. Oregon (Last week: 7)
The Ducks remain on #FraudAlert after a second-straight disappointing showing. Oregon rallied to beat Boise State 37-34, hitting a game-winning 25-yard field goal in the final seconds. Oregon’s offense has been a discombobulated mess the first two weeks, while the Ducks’ allegedly ferocious front-seven allowed Ashton Jeanty to rush for 192 yards and three touchdowns.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Oregon’s 2024 offensive line is a problem. The Ducks gave up another four sacks Saturday night — already eclipsing their season total from 2023 (six) in two games (seven).
13. Kansas State (Last week: 17)
Well that was quite the scare! Kansas State survived a slow start at Tulane to come back and win 34-27 in New Orleans. The Wildcats’ offense was clunky and uninspiring for much of the afternoon, and if not for a 60-yard scoop-and-score touchdown in the fourth quarter, they probably lose the game.
The Green Wave scored way looked like the game-tying touchdown with 17 seconds but were flagged for offensive pass interference. Two plays later, K-State picked off freshman quarterback Darian Mensah in the end zone.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: If not for tailback DJ Giddens, the Wildcats lack a go-to playmaker. The senior tailback led Kansas State in rushing (114 yards rushing on 19 carries) and receiving (63 yards with a touchdown).
14. Oklahoma State (Last week: 16)
With Heisman Trophy hopeful Ollie Gordon mostly held in check, seventh-year senior quarterback Alan Bowman picked up the slack to lead the Pokes to a crazy comeback win over Arkansas in double-overtime.
Oklahoma State had little business escaping with a 39-31 victory (they were out-gained 648-385), but the Cowboys took advantage of a slew of self-inflicted mistakes by the Hogs. Gordon scored the game-winning touchdown and two-point conversion in the second OT, and then OK State came up with a key stop on fourth-and-one.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: For the first time since Gordon became the Pokes’ bell-cow ‘back, Oklahoma State won a game where he was held under 100 yards (now 1-4). Gordon finished with just 49 yards on 17 carries.
15. Notre Dame (Last week: 5)
The Irish suffered their latest inexplicable letdown-loss under Marcus Freeman, paying Northern Illinois $1.4 million to hand Notre Dame its most embarrassing defeat in nearly 30 years. As 28-point favorites, the Irish had a potential game-winning field goal blocked at the end of regulation to lose 16-14. The Huskies out-gained Notre Dame by over 100 yards and sacked Riley Leonard three times.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Leonard was awful on Saturday, throwing two interceptions and averaging just 5.1 yards per attempt. The Duke transfer was harassed in the run game, too, unable to do anything against the Huskies’ defense with his legs (11 carries for 16 yards and one touchdown). In the last two seasons, Leonard now has five picks to just three passing touchdowns.
16. Oklahoma (Last week: 15)
It’s not supposed to be this hard, Oklahoma. The Sooners struggled to slip past a bad Houston team that was walloped 27-7 at home to UNLV last weekend, escaping with a 16-12 victory. Brent Venables admitted Oklahoma didn’t deserve to win the game — one in which OU gained just 248 yards and punted eight times. Jackson Arnold did throw a pair of first-half touchdowns, but the Sooners failed to score a single point in the second half until a safety inside the final two minutes.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Sooners were bailed out by a defense that was gassed by the end of the game. They lost the time of possession by more than 11 minutes, but they came up with stop after stop in the second half. They finished with two takeaways, two sacks and seven TFLs.
17. Michigan (Last week: 10)
Michigan has major problems offensively, as the Wolverines look lost at quarterback (Davis Warren was 22 of 33 for 2024 yards, two picks) and don’t have near the talent at tailback or offensive line as they did the last three seasons. They got punked at home against No. 3 Texas, losing 31-12 in a game that was worse than the final score-line indicated.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Most offensive lines will struggle to neutralize Michigan’s tackle tandem of Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, but the All-American duo was totally bottled up by Texas’ front. They combined for just two tackles, 0.5 TFLs and zero hurries Saturday in a game where they had to take over if the Wolverines had any hopes of pulling off the upset.
18. LSU (Last week: 18)
The Tigers overcame an ugly, sluggish opening 30+ minutes of football, turning a 23-21 lead over FCS Nicholls into a 44-21 victory behind Garrett Nussmeier’s career day. With the Colonels controlling the clock and converting third downs (6-of-12), LSU’s offense struggled to get into a rhythm and gained just 378 total yards. Nussmeier did throw six touchdowns though, including a trio of scores in the third quarter to put the game away. More concerning? LSU averaged just 3.0 yards per rush (long of 12!) And saw its secondary get exposed early … again.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Tigers will be featured on ESPN’s College GameDay next weekend when they make a road trip to South Carolina, which routed Kentucky 31-6 on Saturday.
19. Clemson (Last week: 14)
Well that came out of nowhere. A week after being held to 188 yards and three points in a blowout loss to No. 1 Georgia, Clemson raced to a 35-0 lead in the first quarter in a 66-20 romp over App. State. The Tigers didn’t score five touchdowns in nine games of all of last season, but Cade Klubnik had a get-right night with a career-high 378 yards and five touchdowns. Clemson had over 500 yards of total offense at halftime, looking like an actual ACC title contender again after totally pummeling one of the top G5 teams in the country.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Despite Klubnik’s struggles against UGA in Week 1, the Tigers do have some playmakers on the perimeter this fall. Jake Briningstool is a future NFL tight end (seven catches for 100 yards and two scores), while freshmen wideouts Bryant Wesco Jr. (three catches for 130 yards and one touchdown) and TJ Moore (three receptions for 44 yards and one touchdown) are future stars in the making.
20. Iowa State (Last week: Unranked)
For just the second time in 23 years, Iowa State scored 20 points at Iowa, stunning the No. 21 Hawkeyes with a 54-yard field goal in the waning seconds of the fourth quarter. The Cyclones rallied from a 13-0 halftime deficit, slowly chipping away at the lead with excellent red zone defense and some timely passes from Rocco Becht (75-yard touchdown at the end of the third quarter, three completions for 42 yards on ISU’s final drive). Iowa State held Iowa to just 107 yards after halftime — 19 through the air — with two takeaways and two sacks.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Cyclones were my darkhorse pick to make the Big 12 Championship game, and it says a lot about the makeup of their entire team going into Iowa and gutting out a victory when star tailback Abu Sama III was totally held in check (58 yards on 17 carries). ISU might have one of the more underrated receiver duos in the country with Jaylin Noel (five catches for 133 yards and a touchdown) and Jayden Higgins (eight catches for 68 yards and one score).
21. Nebraska (Last week: Unranked)
The Return of the Black(Shirts). Tony White’s defense hounded Shedeur Sanders and Colorado’s pass-happy offense, jumping out to a big lead and holding on for an impressive 28-10 victory. The Cornhuskers were in Sanders’ lap all night, recording six sacks, another 10 hurries, a pick-six and 10 tackles for loss. Dylan Raiola chipped in just enough offensively, as the 2024 5-star recruit went 23 of 30 for 185 yards, one touchdown and zero turnovers.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: While Colorado was relying solely on Sanders and Travis Hunter (10 catches for 110 yards), Nebraska had a much more balanced approach to help its freshman QB. The Cornhuskers rushed for 149 yards, with Dante Dowdell churning some tough first downs (79 total yards) and two scores.
22. Louisville (Last week: 22)
The Cardinals jumped out to a 28-7 lead en route to a 49-14 breezy win over Jacksonville State. For the second-straight game, Louisville rushed for over 200 yards, and quarterback Tyler Shough had 349 yards (10.6 per attempt) and two touchdowns. After a pair of tune-up games, the Cardinals have an idle date before their schedule stiffens significantly — even against a pair of Top 25 teams that lost Saturday in Georgia Tech and Notre Dame.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Louisville has quickly found something in freshman tailback Isaac Brown. After rushing for 123 yards and a touchdown against Austin Peay, the Miami native had 43 yards on eight carries, a 25-yard kickoff return and a pair of receptions.
23. Arizona (Last week: 20)
The Wildcats decided attendance was optional against Northern Arizona, with Brent Brennan’s team barely showing up to squeak by 22-10. The Wildcats had to rally in the second half, leaning on San Jose State transfer tailback Quail Coney for 112 yards rushing and a team-high 38 yards receiving. Star wideout Tetairoa McMillan was completely held in check, hauling in just two passes for 11 yards — one week removed from a 300-yard, four-score performance.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Wildcats had fewer yards in the entire first half (147) than it did in their first two drives against New Mexico in Week 1. Next up? A tricky non-conference (yes, that’s correct) date with Kansas State on Friday night.
24. Illinois (Last week: Unranked)
What a return to the Top 25 for Bret Bielema and the Fighting Illini. Illinois upset No. 19 Kansas 23-17, beating a ranked non-conference opponent for the first time since 2011. Despite being out-gained through the air and on the ground, the Illini frustrated Jalon Daniels into three interceptions and benefitted from some miscues by the Jayhawks (touchdown wiped out by a penalty). Illinois scored the go-ahead touchdown early in the fourth quarter and never looked back.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: The Illini leaned on transfer wideout Zakhari Franklin when they needed a big play. The former UTSA star, who was buried at Ole Miss last season, had nine catches for 99 yards Saturday.
25. Syracuse (Last week: Unranked)
Transfer quarterbacks across the country had disastrous Week 2s, but Kyle McCord was not among them. Fran Brown may want to send Ryan Day a better bottle of bubbly at this point. The ex-Ohio State starter has flourished in his fresh start at Syracuse, following up a career performance in Week 1 with an even better showing in the Orange’s 31-28 upset over No. 23 Georgia Tech. McCord threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns — and now has eight touchdowns to just one turnover on the season. The Orange are now 2-0 under their first-year head coach, with all sorts of program momentum — on and off the field.
ONE NUGGET TO KNOW: Earlier in the week, Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key questioned Syracuse’s toughness and physicality. He also said he didn’t really know Fran Brown, even though Brown coached at Georgia for two seasons under Kirby Smart. After the upset, Brown admitted Key’s comments added fuel to his team, which was perfect on fourth down (2-2) and came up with a key stop on fourth down against the Bees.
Projected to drop out: No. 19 Kansas, No. 21 Iowa, No. 23 Georgia Tech, No. 24 NC State