College Football Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 after Conference Championship Weekend

Conference Championship Weekend delivered all sorts of shakeups among the top teams contending for the College Football Playoff, as top-ranked Georgia went down to Alabama in the SEC Championship, while Washington upset Oregon to remain undefeated and secure a coveted spot in the four-team field. 

Florida State did just enough offensively to beat Louisville in the ACC Championship Game, and Michigan took care of business against Iowa to win the Big Ten for the third year in a row to claim the No. 1 spot in the latest AP Poll. Texas also blasted Oklahoma State in a statement victory to win the Big 12 Championship.

Elsewhere, Liberty projects to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 team, with Jamey Chadwell’s program in position for its first New Year’s Day Bowl.

Also, Troy looks to crack the Top 25 after waxing App. State for the Sun Belt title. 

Here’s how I think the new AP Top 25 will look come Sunday:

1. Michigan (Last week: 2)

The Wolverines won their third-straight Big Ten Championship, blanking Iowa 26-0 in a defensive snoozer that featured less than 350 total yards between the two teams before garbage time late. James Turner banged in four field goals, and Blake Corum rushed for two scores, tying a school record with 55 touchdowns.

Iowa’s defense came to play, holding J.J. McCarthy to just 22 of 30 for only 147 yards. McCarthy was sacked four times and the Wolverines had just 65 yards rushing.

Still, Michigan moves to the No. 1 spot after another perfect march toward the College Football Playoff, as head coach Jim Harbaugh returned to the sidelines for the first time in four weeks.

The Wolverines harassed Deacon Hill for three sacks and a pair of forced fumbles, holding Iowa to just 155 total yards and 3 of 15 on third downs.

2. Washington (Last week: 3)

The Huskies again proved the doubters wrong, sending the Pac-12 Conference out in style with a thrilling 34-31 comeback win over Oregon on Friday. 

It was Washington’s fourth-straight victory by single digits, as the Huskies received star contributions from quarterback Michael Penix (319 yards and a touchdown), tailback Dillion Johnson (152 yards and two total touchdowns) and all three of their dynamic wideouts.

They jumped out to a 20-3 lead only to see the Ducks storm back and take a 24-20 advantage into the fourth quarter. 

But Penix and Johnson led a pair of touchdown drives, and then Washington was able to run out the clock after recovering the onside kick. They capped a 13-0 season and are a lock as one of the Top 4 teams in the College Football Playoff. 

3. Florida State (Last week: 4)

Down both Jordan Travis and backup Tade Rodemaker in the ACC Championship Game against Louisville, the Seminoles were forced to turn to freshman third-string quarterback Brock Glenn with hopes of keeping their playoff dreams alive. Glenn had just 55 yards at 2.6 per attempt, yet FSU stayed undefeated with a 16-6 win thanks to an otherworldly defensive performance by Jared Verse, Braden Fiske and the rest of the ‘Noles front-seven.

Florida State held the Cardinals to just 188 total yards, recording a season-high seven sacks with 14 tackles for loss and 10 pass breakups.

They had a key interception in the end zone midway through the fourth quarter, helping preserve a dominant performance. While the offense could do next-to-nothing for much of the game, head coach Mike Norvell’s move to switch to a heavy dose of Wildcat offense paid off, as Lawrance Toafilli (117 rushing yards) ripped off a couple of explosive runs to set up the ‘Noles lone touchdown.

The Noles won their first ACC title since 2014 and now must hope their perfect season is enough to crack the four-team field despite being down their team leader and starting QB.

4. Texas (Last week: 7)

The Longhorns spanked Oklahoma State 49-21 in the Big 12 Championship, giving the program their first conference title since 2009 as they bid farewell and join the SEC next season.  

Texas is now 12-1 and will be heavily considered for a College Football Playoff spot Sunday.

Quinn Ewers threw for a title-game record 453 yards with four touchdowns, including a short score to senior star defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat.

The Longhorns had over 650 yards of offense and they held Oklahoma State to less than 300 — including just 34 yards rushing for Ollie Gordon. 

5. Alabama (Last week: 8)

The Crimson Tide have claimed the throne as the king of the SEC, snapping No. 1 Georgia’s 29-game winning streak in a 27-24 upset in the title game. 

Jalen Milroe continued his heroics from the Iron Bowl, throwing a pair of first-half touchdowns and then frustrating Georgia’s defense with his versatility late to put away the game. The sophomore quarterback found Isaiah Bond four times for 59 yards for what turned out to be the deciding touchdown. 

Milroe finished with 219 yards — over 75% of Alabama’s total for the game. After allowing an opening possession touchdown, the Tide’s defense dominated UGA’s explosive offense for the next three quarters. They controlled the line of scrimmage, holding the Bulldogs to just 78 yards rushing and pressuring Carson Beck into two sacks and lots of errant throws. 

The Tide now have one of the best wins all season, and certainly look like one of the best four teams. They await their fate in the College Football Playoff.

6. Georgia (Last week: 1)

The Bulldogs’ bid for a third-straight national championship appears over, as Georgia was upset by No. 7 Alabama 27-24 in the SEC Championship to spoil their quest for history. Their SEC-record 29-game winning streak was snapped, and in a crowded field of undefeated and 12-1 teams, Kirby Smart’s team is likely to get left out of the playoff. 

UGA raced out to a 7-0 lead Saturday, only to get dominated by the Tide in the second quarter (14-0) — just like what happened in the 2021 conference title game defeat. The Bulldogs’ offensive line was whipped by Alabama’s front seven, and UGA was uncharacteristically sloppy — season-high 56 penalty yards, a missed field goal and a turnover deep in its own territory that gifted Alabama three points. 

Carson Beck didn’t find a rhythm until it was too late, failing to throw for 250 yards for the first time all season.

He led two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to cut into Alabama’s lead, but both times Jalen Milroe, who proved to be the best player in the game, responded with impressive drives of his own.

7. Ohio State (Last week: 6)

The Buckeyes concluded the regular-season 11-1, losing the finale against No. 2 Michigan 30-24.

Ohio State looks poised for a Rose Bowl bid, albeit likely without star wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., who as probably played his final game in a Buckeyes uniform. 

8. Oregon (Last week: 5)

The Ducks were the hottest team in the country entering the Pac-12 Championship, but they once against fell to Washington in a 3-point heartbreaker, losing 34-31 in Las Vegas. 

Bo Nix is now 0-3 against Washington and 23-2 against every other opponent in his Ducks career.

Nix threw for 239 yards and three scores, but had a back-breaking interception that gave Washington a mulligan after a Michael Penix pick. 

Oregon rallied from a 20-3 deficit to take a 24-20 lead only to allow the Huskies to score a pair of touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

9. Missouri (Last week: 9)

The Tigers capped their turnaround season with a 48-14 smashing of Arkansas. Missouri finished 10-2 and is in store for a New Year’s Six Bowl. 

Former D-II tailback Cody Schrader was one of the stories of the regular season, finishing No. 2 nationally in rushing (1,499).

10. Penn State (Last week: 12)

The Nittany Lions had their best offensive showing in a 42-0 blowout over Michigan State. James Franklin went 10-2 in 2023, his fifth double-digit win season in Happy Valley. 

The rest of the projected AP Top 25:

11. Ole Miss (Last week: 11)

The Rebels knocked off rival Mississippi State 17-7 in the Egg Bowl, winning 10 games in the regular season for the second time in three years under Lane Kiffin. 

12. Oklahoma (Last week: 12)

The Sooners rebounded from last season’s 6-7 showing, going 10-2 with a win over Texas in Year 2 under Brent Venables. Oklahoma smashed TCU in the finale 69-45. 

13. LSU (Last week: 13)

Jayden Daniels made his final Heisman Trophy statement in LSU’s 42-30 comeback win over Texas A&M, accounting for another 350 yards and four scores. The senior led the Tigers to a 9-3 season with 50 total touchdowns and nearly 5,000 total yards.

14. Arizona (Last week: 14)

The Wildcats ended the regular season with five straight wins, going 9-3 for the first time since 2014. The even better news for Arizona is it looks to have kept Jedd Fisch in Tempe with the coaching carousel mostly done spinning. 

15. Louisville (Last week: 15)

The Cardinals couldn’t muster much of anything offensively against the Seminoles on Saturday night, as quarterback Jack Plummer was harassed into seven sacks and a bad red zone interception in a 16-6 loss in the ACC title game. Louisville had less than 200 total yards.

Jeff Brohm’s team played well enough defensively to upset No. 4 FSU (four sacks, just 55 yards passing allowed and a blocked punt) but an inability to block the Seminoles’ front seven and sustain drives (3 of 21 combined on third and fourth downs) doomed any chances to pull off the upset.

16. Notre Dame (Last week: 16)

The Irish beat rival Stanford to seal a 9-3 season in Year 2 under Marcus Freeman. They won four of five down the stretch but will need to replace Sam Hartman at quarterback for 2024. 

18. Liberty (Last week: 20)

The Flames outlasted New Mexico State 49-35 in the C-USA Championship, scoring the final 14 points in a seesaw affair that featured more than 1,100 total yards. In a tie game at 35-all, Liberty punched in the go-ahead score and then picked off a pass in the end zone on the very next possession to thwart a scoring chance. Four plays later, Kaidon Salter, who had nearly 500 total yards and four touchdowns, sprinted for a 35-yard score to seal the victory.

In Jamey Chadwell’s first season at Liberty, the Flames moved to 13-0 and look positioned to claim the Group of 5’s spot in the New Year’s Six.

19. SMU (Last week: Unranked)

Despite missing their starting quarterback Preston Stone, the Mustangs upset reigning conference champs Tulane on the road as they waved goodbye to the AAC for the ACC. 

SMU road a gusty defensive performance (seven sacks, one interception and just 31 yards rushing allowed) and four second-half field goals to its 26-14 victory, as one of the most underrated units all season bottled up quarterback Michael Pratt and the Green Wave. 

Backup quarterback Kevin Jennings turned the ball over three times in his first-career start, including a strip-sack that nearly went for a touchdown on the first play from scrimmage, but Jennings and the Mustangs were able to regroup and take a 14-7 lead into halftime. After Tulane tied the score early in the third quarter, SMU held the Green Wave to just 27 yards on their next four drives — three punts and an INT. 

19. Iowa (Last week: 18)

The Hawkeyes had a better showing in the Big Ten title game than they did two years ago against Michigan (42-3), but they still were totally impotent offensively, giving them zero chance of engineering any sort of historic upset over the second-ranked Wolverines. Iowa was blanked 26-0, finishing with a measly 155 total yards and three turnovers.

Iowa’s defense limited Michigan to four field goals on real scoring drives, but two giveaways deep in Hawkeyes territory set up two Wolverines touchdowns that accounted for less than 11 total yards.  

20. Oklahoma State (Last week: 19)

The Cowboys got blitzed by Texas early in the Big 12 title game, quickly falling behind 14-0 en route to a 49-21 loss. Standout tailback Ollie Gordon had little room to operate against the Longhorns’ Top 5 run defense (34 yards), and the Pokes’ leaky secondary was totally exposed by quarterback Quinn Ewers (Big 12 Championship Game-record 453) and Texas’ host of playmakers.

Oklahoma State’s 9-4 season was still a nice rebound year after Mike Gundy’s team went 7-6 in 2022, losing five of six down the stretch.

21. NC State (Last week: 21)

The Wolfpack won five straight games to end the season, beating rival North Carolina 39-20 to cap an underrated 9-3 season. If Dave Doeren wins the bowl game, he’ll deliver the Wolfpack their second-ever 10-win season in school history.

22. Oregon State (Last week: 22)

It’s been a tough week for Beavers fans, who saw Oregon State get waxed in the final Pac-12 Civil War against Oregon and then lose their head coach Jonathan Smith to Michigan State a day later. Then quarterback DJ Uiagalelei jumped into the transfer portal and star tailback Damien Martinez was busted for a DUI. 

23. Tulane (Last week: 17)

The Green Wave squandered a chance to win their second-straight AAC Championship (and make a return to a New Year’s Six Bowl), falling 26-14 at home to a spunky SMU squad. 

Michael Pratt struggled against SMU’s No. 6 passing defense, completing just 21 of 36 passes for 238 yards with one pick and one touchdown. He was sacked seven times and standout tailback Makhi Hughes was held to just 44 yards rushing. 

Tulane now faces speculation that head coach Willie Fritz will be named Houston’s next head coach as early as Sunday.

24. Troy (Last week: Unranked)

The Trojans opened the season 1-2, but for the second-straight year in a row, Jon Sumrall’s team ripped off 10 wins in a row including a victory in the Sun Belt title game. The Trojans smoked App. State 49-23, with star tailback Kimani Vidal running wild with a career-high 233 yards and five touchdowns. 

Vidal had two scores in the first quarter and then helped Troy put the game away late with three more touchdowns in a wild fourth quarter that featured 35 points between the two teams. 

25. James Madison (Last week: 24)

The Dukes smashed Coastal Carolina 56-14 to finish their second season in FBS play 11-1. They’ll go bowling despite being ineligible to play for the Sun Belt title this weekend. They are in the market for a new head coach, though, losing Curt Cignetti to Indiana. 

Projected to drop out: Toledo