College Football Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 after Georgia, Michigan roll

Week 11 didn’t deliver any wild results or ground-shaking upsets, but it did provide further clarity on the 2023 national championship race. 

The reigning two-time champion Georgia Bulldogs flexed every bit like the No. 1 team in the country, while Michigan grounded Penn State into the dirt and Alabama looks likes the scariest one-loss team heading into Thanksgiving.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma State laid an egg, Missouri exacted some revenge against Tennessee and Jayden Daniels made his case as the Heisman Trophy frontrunner. 

Here’s how I think the new AP Top 25 will look come Sunday:

1. Georgia (Last week: 1)

The Bulldogs cemented their status as the No. 1 team in the country, completing demolishing No. 10 Ole Miss 52-17 to clinch their third-straight SEC East title. 

In their 27th-consecutive win on a cold and rainy night, Georgia rolled up more than 600 yards on just 59 plays — scoring touchdowns on seven of 10 drives before the kneel-downs to end the game. Carson Beck threw for 306 yards with a touchdown to star tight end Brock Bowers, who made his valiant return from tight-rope surgery, while Kendall Milton (127 and two scores) and Daijun Edwards (59 yards and two scores) led a UGA ground game that 300 yards and five touchdowns at 8.5 per clip. 

The Bulldogs’ offensive line delivered a Joe Moore Award-esque performance, opening up gaping holes in the run game and keeping Beck clean against a Rebels defense that ranked in the Top 10 nationally in sacks and tackles for loss.

Georgia allowed two quick touchdowns to Ole Miss’ explosive offense, but quickly made adjustments and held Lane Kiffin’s team to just three points the rest of the game. 

2. Michigan (Last week: 2)

Despite all sorts of sign-stealing scandal distractions, including the suspension of head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Wolverines went to Beaver Stadium and ground their way to a 24-15 win over No. 9 Penn State. They rushed for 227 yards on 46 carries, with OC Sherrone Moore, who was also the interim head coach, calling 32 straight runs to end the game.

Blake Corum went for 145 yards and two scores, including a 30-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter to put the game on ice. J.J. McCarthy was just 7 of 8 for 60 yards — the fewest attempts and yardage in his career as a starter — and it didn’t matter.

Penn State’s offense never seriously challenged Michigan, which did snap its (insane) 36-quarter streak of never facing a 1st-and-goal defensive snap. 

The Wolverines answered the test of what they’d look like against a quality opponent, and now the question is will Jim Harbaugh return to the sidelines the rest of the regular season?

3. Ohio State (Last week: 3)

The Buckeyes demolished Michigan State 38-3, jumping out to a 35-3 lead at halftime with a trio of Marvin Harrison Jr. touchdowns before just running out the clock the entire second half. 

Harrison Jr. finished with seven catches for 149 yards and two scores, adding a 19-yard rushing touchdown to boot.

Ohio State found the end zone on five of its first six possessions, as its offense is suddenly finding its form two weeks before a show-me-game against No. 2 Michigan to end the regular season. 

The Buckeyes’ defense continued their strong play, holding the Spartans to just 182 yards and 2 of 14 on 3rd downs. They allowed just 3.3 yards per play and out-gained Michigan State by 350 yards. 

4. Florida State (Last week: 4)

The Seminoles mostly got whipped along both lines of scrimmage, yet they were able to hold off rival Miami for a 27-20 win to remain undefeated and in the mix for a College Football Playoff berth. The Hurricanes had the ball with a chance to win the game, but the recently-benched Tyler Van Dyke, who had to replace Emory Williams after the freshman injured his arm on a short run for a first down, was picked off by Jarrian Jones to seal the win. 

The ‘Noles were out-gained 335-322. Half of their rushing yards came on a 40-yard touchdown run by Trey Benson, and Jordan Travis was sacked three times. 

And yet, FSU proved resilient, scoring touchdowns on consecutive drives to end the third quarter and to start the fourth.

Keon Coleman had a key 57-yard punt return and capped the drive with a 6-yard touchdown reception — his ACC-leading 10th touchdown on the season. 

5. Washington (Last week: 5)

The Huskies moved to 10-0 for just the second time in school history, outlasting a pesky Utah team in a seesaw 35-28 affair. After a first-half barrage of touchdowns by both teams, Washington pitched a shutout after halftime to rally for the win. 

Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. threw for 332 yards and two scores and ran for a touchdown, too. On a windy afternoon, the southpaw wasn’t his sharpest Saturday, but when the Huskies needed a deep strike, they dialed up THE TOUCHDOWN PLAY to star wideout Rome Odunze (three catches for 111 yards and two scores). Penix delivered a couple of perfect moon shots, including a go-ahead 33-yard score to Odunze.

The Huskies held the Utes to just 90 yards after halftime, and it looked as if they’d put the game away with a 76-yard pick-six by Alphonzo Tuputala — only too see the linebacker drop the ball at the 1-yard line as he celebrated his way into the end zone. Utah smartly jumped on the loose ball, but was stuffed for a safety on the very next play. 

Washington stays atop the Pac-12 standings and it toughest test left in the regular season next weekend with a road trip at No. 12 Oregon State. 

6. Oregon (Last week: 6)

The Ducks took care of business at home against USC, as Bo Nix threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns in a 36-27 win to stay on track for a rematch with Washington in the Pac-12 title game. Nix had touchdown passes of 77 yards and 84 yards on his first two passes. 

Both Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson had over 125 yards receiving, torching USC’s secondary for three scores. The Ducks lacked discipline with 13 penalties for 120 yards, but they held USC to just 83 yards rushing and didn’t commit a turnover. 

Oregon was actually out-scored 14-13 after halftime but they managed to run out the clock to put away the Trojans for their fourth-straight win.

With Arizona State and Oregon State to finish the 2023 regular season, the Ducks will be heavily favored to win out down the stretch.

7. Texas (Last week: 7)

For the second-straight week, the Longhorns eked out a win after nearly coughing up a three-score lead after halftime, holding on to beat TCU 29-26. 

Quarterback Quinn Ewers returned to the field for the first time in three weeks, throwing for 317 yards with a touchdown and one interception. He completed his biggest pass of the night on Texas’ final drive, connecting with AD Michell for a 35-yard fade on 3rd-and-12 to keep the drive alive and allow the Longhorns to run out the clock and not give the ball back to the Horned Frogs. 

Texas dominated TCU in the first half, holding a 26-6 lead and out-gaining its in-state rival by 220 yards. But the Longhorns came out of halftime flat again, particularly in the fourth quarter when they allowed three touchdown drives. Still, they won and remain atop the Big 12 standings.

They have a pivotal game at Iowa State, which smashed BYU, next weekend. 

8. Alabama (Last week: 8)

Another Saturday, another career performance by Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe. The sophomore became the first Crimson Tide quarterback to run and pass for three touchdowns each, as the Crimson Tide cruised past Kentucky 49-21 and looks like one of the scariest teams in the country right now. 

Milroe is budding Heisman Trophy candidate after his second-straight game with at least four touchdowns, finishing with 234 yards passing and 36 yards rushing.

The Tide were up 28-7 at halftime, with Milroe connecting for scores of 26, 40 and 26 yards. 

Alabama held Kentucky to just 253 yards and 3 of 12 attempts on 3rd and 4th-down. With the win, the Tide clinched the SEC West division title. They have a cupcake game against UT Chattanooga next Saturday before the Iron Bowl at Auburn to end the regular season.

9. Louisville (Last week: 11)

After back-to-back impressive defensive performances without allowing a touchdown, the Cardinals came out of halftime Thursday leading 14-0 against Virginia before completely losing focus and allowing 21 points in the third quarter to a hapless Cavs offense. Jeff Brohm’s team was able to right the ship, though, scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter to win 31-24 and remain a one-loss team in the mix for a ACC Championship. 

With under four minutes remaining, tailback Isaac Guerendo sprinted 73 yards for the game-winning score. The Wisconsin transfer combined with Jawhar Jordan to rush for 180 yards and a touchdown to lead the Cardinals’ offense. Aside from the third quarter letdown, Louisville’s defense continues to wreck havoc on foes, totaling four sacks, nine tackles for loss and and two takeaways in the win.  

10. Oregon State (Last week: 12)

The Beavers utterly dominated Stanford to stay in contention for a Pac-12 championship appearance. It was the Damien Martinez show in a 62-17 romp, as the Oregon State tailback rushed for 146 yards and four touchdowns. Martinez had touchdown runs of 7, 59 and 15 yards on Oregon State’s first three drives. 

The Beavers finished with 598 total yards, as DJ Uiagalelei threw for 240 yards and two scores and backup Aiden Chiles chipped in 75 yards and a score.

Defensively, they put the clamps on the Cardinal, intercepting four passes along with six sacks and 12 tackles for loss. 

At 8-2, Jonathan Smith’s team controls its destiny in the Pac-12 — only it has a pair of Top 10 matchups against Washington and at Oregon to end the regular season.

The rest of the projected AP Top 25:

11. Missouri (Last week: 16)

The Tigers rebounded from their loss at No. 1 Georgia last weekend to blast Tennessee 36-7 behind the two-man band performances of quarterback Brady Cook and tailback Cody Schrader. 

Schrader rushed for a career-high 205 yards on 35 carries with a touchdown, adding another team-high 116 receiving yards on five receptions. His 321 total yards were just a dozen short of a school record.

Cook went 18 of 24 for 275 yards and one passing touchdown, as the Tigers exacted some revenge against a Tennessee team that had dropped 60+ on them the last two seasons. 

Missouri’s defense held one of the nation’s best-rushing attacks to just 83 yards on 23 carries. The Tigers forced multiple 3-and-outs, limiting Tennessee’s tempo, and held the Vols to just 5 of 13 on 3rd down.

12. Penn State (Last week: 9)

Penn State whiffed on another opportunity to make a statement in a marquee matchup, never truly threatening Michigan in a 24-15 loss. James Franklin moved to just 4-16 against the Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes, and is now 3-16 against Top 10 teams. 

The Nittany Lions allowed over 200 yards rushing, but they played well enough to win only to get zero help from a toothless offense.

Quarterback Drew Allar struggled mightily, going 10 of 22 for just 70 yards and a touchdown. He rushed for another score, but had the game’s only turnover on a fumble that setup a Michigan field goal drive. 

Penn State had all sorts of poor coaching decisions Saturday, with Franklin osculating from being overly conservative (kicking a field goal inside the 5-yard line) to bizarrely aggressive (chasing points on a 2-point conversion in the first half). They also burned timeouts and had a highly predictable offensive gameplan.

13. Oklahoma (Last week: 17)

The Sooners returned home and a had a get-right game against West Virginia, mashing the Mountaineers 59-20 behind a superb performance from Dillion Gabriel.  In a career-day, the senior quarterback had a ridiculous eight touchdowns — five passing and three rushing on a whopping 473 total yards — as Oklahoma scored on its first five possessions to make the game a laugher early. 

Earlier this week, Drake Stoops said the Sooners still had plenty to play for, and he was right, backing up his words with a career-high 10 catches for 164 yards and three scores — all in the second half. With the other machinations in the Big 12 on Saturday, Oklahoma remains alive for a potential spot in the Big 12 Championship — albeit still needing some help.

14. Ole Miss (Last week: 10)

After a fast start with two touchdowns in their first three drives, the Rebels tossed some early haymakers only to get knocked out by the top-ranked Bulldogs 52-17.  Pete Goulding’s defense had no answers for Mike Bobo’s offense, allowing 612 yards at over 10.3 per play. Ole Miss gave up touchdown drives on UGA’s first four possessions and didn’t get a stop until Carson Beck threw late over the middle for a tipped pass INT just before halftime. Their pass rush — which ranked in Top 10 nationally in sacks and TFLs — didn’t record a single negative play. 

Jaxson Dart was held to just 112 yards passing with a pick, and was knocked out of the game with a shoulder injury late in the third quarter. Ole Miss can still finish 10-2 this season, but the blowout might’ve cost the Rebels a potential New Year’s Six bowl berth.

15. LSU (Last week: 18)

Despite leading a three-loss Tigers team, Jayden Daniels might’ve wrapped up the Heisman Trophy with an otherworldly performance against Florida in a 52-35 win. 

Once again, Daniels was Mr. Everything for LSU, becoming the first quarterback in FBS history to throw for over 350 yards (372 and three scores to be exact) and rush for over 200 (234 yards and two scores). Daniels accounted for 10 plays over 25 yards himself.

In the Tigers’ fifth-straight win over rival UF, Daniels had rushing scores of 85 and 51 yards, and he capped the victory with a pair of 4th-quarter passing touchdowns to Brian Thomas. 

He looks to join the likes of Tim Tebow, Robert Griffin III and Lamar Jackson as QBs to win the Heisman on teams with three losses.

16. Utah (Last week: 13)

The undermanned Utes pushed Washington for two quarters before wilting after halftime in a close 35-28 loss. They led 28-24 after two quarters, with ex-pig farmer Bryson Barnes carving up the Huskies’ defense for 238 yards and two touchdowns.  But Barnes completed just four passes in the second half, and threw what (should’ve been) a back-breaking pick-six. After Washington missed a field goal with a minute remaining, Barnes’ second pick officially ended any comeback hopes. 

The Utes were held to fewer than 100 yards after halftime, and their drives went punt, punt, INT, safety, punt, INT. With three conference losses, they no longer have a chance to defend their back-to-back Pac-12 crowns.

17. Tennessee (Last week: 14)

In a clash of a pair of 7-2 teams, the Vols got humbled in Columbia on Saturday, getting shutout in the second half in a 36-7 rout at Missouri. The Vols had waxed the Tigers by an average of 40 points the last two seasons, but they had no answers for Cody Schrader, who had over 300 total yards by himself Saturday. 

Tennessee came into the game as the SEC’s best-rushing offense and defense, yet the Vols had fewer than 100 yards on the ground for the first time all season. The Vols also committed three turnovers, including a pick-six by Joe Milton in the fourth quarter.

They couldn’t get off the field on 3rd downs, either allowing the Tigers to convert 11 of 17 chances. 

The Vols, which suffered its worst margin of defeat of the Josh Heupel era, squandered a chance to remain in the SEC East race. They now can only play spoiler against Georgia next weekend.  

18. Oklahoma State (Last week: 15)

In a central Florida downpour, the Cowboys saw their six-game winning streak go up in flames, getting blown out by UCF 45-3. Mike Gundy’s team couldn’t do anything right offensively or defensively, allowing the Knights to rack up nearly 600 yards of total offense. Ollie Gordon was held to just 25 yards on 12 carries and had a key fumble, as Oklahoma State’s offense completely sputtered without its Heisman Trophy candidate. 

Cowboys quarterback Alan Bowman tossed three interceptions — all in the first half — and the Pokes trailed 24-0 at halftime and never challenged UCF the rest of the game. They remain tied for second atop the Big 12 standings with the tiebreaker over Kansas State. 

19. Tulane (Last week: 20)

The Green Wave won their eighth-straight game Saturday, outlasting Tulsa 24-22 to remain in position to defend their AAC title and be the Group of 5 representative for the New Year’s Six bowl game. Tulane continues to be nails in close games, winning for the fourth-straight time in as many weeks by a single score. 

Tailback Makhi Hughes rushed for 131 yards and a score, while Shedro Louis had a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown to kickstart the third quarter. The Green Wave gained nearly 500 yards of offense but an inability to convert third downs (4 of 13) allowed Tulsa to hang around in the game.

20. James Madison (Last week: 21)

The Dukes housed UConn 44-6, as quarterback Jordan McCloud torched the Huskies for 457 yards and four touchdowns on a pristine 33 of 37 passing. James Madison actually sputtered a bit offensively in the first half (just a 13-3 lead), but McCloud came out firing after halftime with three scores.

Reggie Brown scored an 80-yard touchdown in the second quarter and a 55-yard score in the second half, becoming the first James Madison wideout to go for more than 200 yards. 

The Dukes added an 81-yard pick-six to cement the blowout and move to 10-0. They continue to wait for a waiver from the NCAA to allow them to play in a bowl game, which would also trigger the Sun Belt to allow the program to compete for the conference championship. 

Curt Cignetti’s team will be featured on ESPN’s College GameDay next weekend when it hosts Appalachian State. 

21. Kansas State (Last week: Unranked)

The Wildcats blasted Baylor 59-25, with quarterback Will Howard totaling four touchdowns for the second straight game. Kansas State scored touchdowns on four of their first five drives — a fumble that went for a Bears touchdown the lone failed possession.

The Wildcats led 35-13 at halftime and didn’t let up, adding a couple more touchdowns and a pick-six in the second half to complete the rout. DJ Giddens chipped in 115 yards rushing and the defense forced four takeaways.

Kansas State, the reigning Big 12 champs, remains in the hunt to return to the title game with Oklahoma State’s loss.

The Wildcats play at rival Kansas next weekend and then host Iowa State in the regular-season finale.

22. Notre Dame (Last week: 22)

The Irish were idle this week after losing at Clemson last weekend. Sam Hartman (13 of 30 for 146 yards and two turnovers against the Tigers) will look to get back on track next weekend against Wake Forest. 

Notre Dame is probably on the outside looking in to make a New Year’s Six Bowl, but there’s a potential avenue if beats both the Demon Deacons and rival Stanford to end the regular season.

23. Arizona (Last week: 23)

The Wildcats survived on the road at Colorado, nailing a game-winning 24-yard field goal as time expired to win 34-31. Arizona rallied from a 24-17 deficit at halftime, outscoring the Buffs 17-7 in the second half. Noah Fifita threw for 214 yards and two scores, but the Wildcats were keyed by a ground game that went for 207 yards at 7.7 per carry. Jonah Coleman rushed for a career-high 179 yards on just 11 touches. 

The Wildcats had an answer for every Colorado scoring drive, but they didn’t take their first lead until Tyler Loop’s kick. They moved to 7-3 — the first time they’ve won as many games in a single season since 2017. 

24. North Carolina (Last week: 24)

The Tar Heels survived in a double-overtime thriller to beat rival Duke 47-45, getting a stop on a 2-point conversion to move to 8-2. Drake Maye threw for 342 yards with one touchdown and a pick, and Omarion Hampton rushed for 169 and a score, but the game ball probably goes to kicker Noah Burnette, who drilled a school-record six field goals — with every single kick needed for the win. 

Burnette tied the game with a clutch 43-yarder as time expired in regulation, but not before a bit of controversy. UNC tight end Bryson Nesbit made a contested catch to convert a 3rd-and-15, but Duke protested the play should’ve resulted in an interception.

ACC officials opted not to review the play, which infuriated Blue Devils head coach Mike Elko. 

In the end, the Tar Heels allowed another opponent to erase a double-digit second-half lead (they were up 19-14 at the start of a wild 4th quarter that saw 39 points get scored), but they made just enough plays to avoid a dispiriting loss on homecoming. 

25. Liberty (Last week: 25)

Behind five Kaiden Salter touchdowns, the Flames remained undefeated with a 38-10 win over Old Dominion. Salter threw for three scores and ran for another pair — playing in just three quarters. The Flames rushed for over 230 yards and held the Monarchs to just 7 of 22 on third down. 

Jamey Chadwell moved to 10-0 in his first season at Liberty, and with games remaining against UMass and UTEP, a perfect season remains on track. 

Projected to drop out: Kansas