College Football Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 after Georgia rolls, Oklahoma gets upset at Kansas

In advance of the first College Football Playoff Rankings release Tuesday night, Week 9 went mostly to chalk. Georgia bludgeoned Florida, Ohio State took care of business at Wisconsin and Oregon cruised past Utah. 

Still, undefeated Oklahoma did lose to Kansas for the first time in 19 years, No. 11 Oregon State went down at Arizona and North Carolina choked again against Georgia Tech. So we learned (or confirmed) some thoughts about some teams as we enter November. 

Here’s how I think the new AP Top 25 will look come Sunday:

1. Georgia (Last week: 1)

The Bulldogs came out of their bye week and splattered Florida 43-20, looking like No. 1 team in the country for perhaps the first time all season. After trailing 7-0, UGA scored the next 36 points in dominant fashion to win their 25-straight game. 

It was a fun homecoming for Jacksonville native Carson Beck, who threw for 315 yards and two scores. Georgia’s offensive line also paved the way for 171 yards rushing and three touchdowns. 

The game flipped on a two-play sequence in the first quarter when Gators coach Billy Napier dialed up two trick plays — both of which were blown up for losses.

After getting stuffed on 4th-and-1, the Gators had a net of -24 on their next 16 plays (four drives). Georgia finished with five sacks, eight tackles for loss and a blocked punt for a safety.

2. Michigan (Last week: 2)

Michigan is mercifully (???) on an idle date during a week where its sign-stealing scandal has gone from chuckles to seriousness with each new story that seemingly drops every hour. 

Time will tell how that whole ordeal will play out, but in the present, the Wolverines have the Heisman Trophy favorite in quarterback J.J. McCarthy and look like the best team in the country. They still have two more weeks until their first true test in 2023 in a road game at Penn State on Nov. 11.

3. Ohio State (Last week: 3)

The Buckeyes won another rock fight to remain undefeated, winning at Wisconsin 24-10 thanks to a strong defensive effort and the brilliance of Marvin Harrison Jr. and tailback TreVeyon Henderson. 

OSU quarterback Kyle McCord had three turnovers (two picks, one fumble), so No. 18 again proved the difference for the Buckeyes’ offense. Harrison had six catches for 123 yards and two scores — including the go-ahead touchdown midway through the third quarter.

Henderson, who returned to action for his first game in a month, put the dagger in the Badgers with a 33-yard sprint score late in the fourth quarter. He finished with 162 yards on 24 carries. 

After Wisconsin’s star tailback Braelon Allen was lost to injury on the final play of the first half, the Buckeyes totally bottled up the Badgers’ run game (94 yards on 25 carries).

4. Florida State (Last week: 4)

Senior quarterback Jordan Travis had over 300 total yards and four touchdowns in the first half against Wake Forest, as the Seminoles destroyed the Demon Deacons 41-16.

FSU jumped out to a 34-7 lead before halftime,  with ACC touchdown receptions leader Keon Coleman adding two more scores to his stat sheet this season — including a one-handed snag for a 14-yard touchdown.

It was Coleman’s third multi-touchdown game this season for the Michigan State transfer. 

The Seminoles outgained the Deacons by 298 yards and held quarterback Mitch Griffis to just 82 yards on 6 of 16 passing. They sacked Griffis, who was already banged up heading into the game, five times — with All-American pass rusher Jared Verse taking him down twice.

5. Washington (Last week: 7)

For the second-straight Saturday, the Huskies had a “hold onto your butts” showing against a far inferior squad, needing Stanford to drop a gimme fourth-down conversion and score a late touchdown to beat the Cardinal 42-33 to remain the lone undefeated team in the Pac-12.

Michael Penix Jr. rebounded after a tough showing against Arizona State to throw for 369 yards and four touchdowns, but Washington had two turnovers in the red zone in the fourth quarter to keep Stanford in the game. The Huskies’ secondary was also torched by the No. 10 passing offense in the Pac-12 for 367 yards — a concerning showing before a date against USC and Caleb Williams next weekend.

6. Oregon (Last week: 8)

Making his NCAA-record 55th career-start, Bo Nix said, “To hell with all your Bo Nix on the road jokes,” leading the Ducks to an emphatic 35-6 win at Utah. The senior carved up the Utes secondary for two touchdowns and 142 yards. The Heisman Trophy contender had three total scores before halftime, as Oregon jumped out to a quick lead and then took the air out of the ball in the second half. 

Oregon’s defense line owned the line of scrimmage in Salt Lake City, holding Utah’s ground game to just 28 yards thorough three quarters.

Ducks transfer defensive back Tysheem Johnson picked off Bryson Barnes twice, and Oregon limited Utah to just 3.7 yards per play. 

Despite their close loss at Washington, the Ducks look like the best team in the Pac-12 right now.

7. Texas (Last week: 7)

Maalik Murphy shook-off a couple of first half turnovers to help Texas cruise past BYU 35-6 in his first-career start. The redshirt freshman, playing in place of the injured Quinn Ewers, threw for 170 yards and two scores — including a 30-yard pass to AD Mitchell just before halftime. He connected with Mitchell again for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter, too. 

Xavier Worthy got the Longhorns on the board early, weaving and sprinting 74-yards for a punt return touchdown. Texas’ defense then mostly did the rest, holding the Cougars to just over 100 yards before halftime. The Longhorns forced three takeaways, picking off Kedon Slovis twice. They held the Cougars to just 2 of 13 on third down and had 12 tackles for loss.

8. Alabama (Last week: 9)

As we move past Halloween and enter the holiday season of Thanksgiving and Christmas, the Crimson Tide are still wearing the Mike Myers mask as the villain folks don’t want to face. 

This isn’t Nick Saban’s best squad, but it’s a feisty, competitive bunch that refuses to fold, and it has a bye week to get healthy before an SEC West elimination game against LSU in a monster matchup next weekend. 

9. Penn State (Last week: 10)

The Nittany Lions nearly let Ohio State beat them twice, coming out totally flat at home against a bad Indiana team only to survive with some late heroics from quarterback Drew Allar. In a 24-all affair, Allar, who threw his first-career interception on the drive before, connected with KeAndre Lambert-Smith for a 57-yard strike to retake the lead. On the Hoosiers’ ensuing possession, Penn State forced a safety on a Dani-Dennis Sutton sack fumble to secure the 33-24 victory. 

Penn State was a 32-point favorite and was outgained by an Indiana offense that ranked last in the Big Ten in scoring. The Nittany Lions were fortunate that the Hoosiers muffed two punts. Allar finished with three touchdowns, but averaged just 6.9 yards per attempt and PSU needed 33 carries to rush for 130 yards.

10. Oklahoma (Last week: 6)

The Sooners couldn’t survive a second-straight scare, showing up to Lawerence with their C-game and getting upset 38-33 by Kansas. They turned the ball over three times, including a costly Dillion Gabriel pick-six. 

The game featured seven lead changes and Oklahoma had the ball at the end with the chance to pull-off a dramatic comeback, but Gabriel’s final pass by batted down in the end zone. The Sooners’ run defense was poor once again (225 yards allowed), and they were super sloppy, committing 11 penalties for over 100 yards.

Suddenly, Oklahoma could be in for a fight just to make the Big 12 Championship game, likely needing to win the final Bedlam at Oklahoma State next weekend to ensure a potential tiebreaker.

The rest of the projected AP Top 25:

11. Ole Miss (Last week: 11)

The SEC’s best running back in 2022 is starting to find his groove just at the right time for the Rebels, as Quinshon Judkins had his second-straight 124-yard, two-touchdown performance in a 33-7 win over Vanderbilt. 

Ole Miss jumped on Vanderbilt 26-0 before halftime, picking off Ken Seals on the Commodores’ first drive and then forcing six straight empty drives — including a pair of fourth down stops. The Rebels’ defense had two takeaways and five sacks.  The Rebels have won four straight games — all versus SEC foes — since their 24-10 loss to Alabama, and they’ll try to extend their winning streak to five with Texas A&M coming to Oxford next weekend. 

12. Notre Dame (Last week:14)

The Irish delivered their most impressive showing in years, bodying Pitt 58-7 in a NSFW beatdown. They controlled every aspect of the game — opening the blowout with an 82-yard punt return touchdown and later adding a 43-yard pick-six, three Audric Estime rushing scores and a fumble-return score. 

Sam Hartman threw two first quarter interceptions and it didn’t matter. Notre Dame’s defense overwhelmed the Panthers, forcing five turnovers for the second straight game. With two losses, they won’t make the College Football Playoff but they’re as well as any team in the country the last few weeks and will be favorites on the road against a reeling Clemson team next weekend.

13. LSU (Last week: 15)

After coughing up a win against Ole Miss, the Tigers have righted the ship and enter their bye week exactly where they hoped before the season started: In a game at Alabama that will decide the SEC West. 

Jayden Daniels has blossomed from a darkhorse Heisman Trophy contender to one of the frontrunners leading a LSU offense that ranks No. 1 nationally in scoring, yards per play and yards per game. The question is can Harold Perkins & Co., get enough stops? Brian Kelly upset Alabama in Year 1, and we’ll see next weekend if he can do it again. 

14. Missouri (Last week: 16)

The Tigers are off to their best start since 2013, enjoying a bye week at 7-1 with a real shot to contend for the SEC East. Eli Drinkwitz has proven the administration’s strong support was not misguided, and Missouri has a chance to play for the SEC East tie-breaker next weekend in Athens against Georgia. 

15. Louisville (Last week: 18)

Fresh off their bye week, the Cardinals blanked then-No. 20 Duke 23-0 behind a suffocating defensive performance and a ground-and-pound attack. It was the school’s first-ever shutout over a ranked team, as the Blue Devils could do next-to-nothing offensively (just 202 total yards, one pick and 2 of 12 on third downs) with a banged-up Riley Leonard at quarterback.

Jawhar Jordan ran for a career-high 163 yards and two scores amid Louisville’s 234-yard effort on the ground. The Cardinals struggled on third down, too (2 of 10), but it didn’t matter as they bled the clock with 37 minutes of possession. They moved to 7-1 and remain at the forefront of the ACC title race. 

16. Air Force (Last week: 19)

The Falcons moved to 8-0 (5-0 in Mountain West) and one of just eight remaining undefeated teams in the country in 2023 with a 30-13 win over Colorado State in a snow-filled Fort Collins. 

Rams fans pelted the Air Force sideline with snowballs throughout the game, prompting officials to warn the fans multiple times over the PA system and penalizing Colorado State for an unsportsmanlike penalty in the third quarter.

Air Force was actually out-gained by Colorado State (339 vs. 291), but it controlled the game’s tempo with 259 yards rushing and three touchdowns. Quarterback Zac Larrier chipped in 4 of 7 passing for 32 yards and a score, the Falcons didn’t turn the ball over and they CSU to just 42 yards on the ground.

17. Oregon State (Last week: 11)

The Beavers got upset at Arizona, coughing up a 17-13 lead in the fourth quarter to lose 27-24 for their second Pac-12 loss. Jonathan Smith inexplicably dialed up a fake field goal in a 10-tie in the closing seconds just before halftime that ran out the clock to squander a scoring opportunity — proving the difference in the game.

Oregon State out-gained Arizona, but the Beavers couldn’t come up with timely stops in the fourth quarter, allowing Noah Fifita to find tailback Michael Wiley for two touchdown passes in the final period to spur the upset.

18. Utah (Last week: 13)

As predicted, the Utes’ get-right game against a horrible USC defense last weekend did not mean they suddenly solved some of their offensive issues. Utah could barely move the ball in a dispiriting 35-6 loss to No. 8 Oregon — as Kyle Whittingham’s team looked overmatched from the very first drive. 

They lost in Rice-Eccles Stadium for just the second-time in their last 31 games. With two Pac-12 losses, the back-to-back conference champs are currently on the outside looking in to reach the title game in Las Vegas but they could play their way back into the mix with an upset over Washington in two weeks.

19. Kansas (Last week: Unranked)

The Jayhawks snapped an 18-game losing streak to Oklahoma with a wild 38-33 upset that featured seven lead changes. After backup quarterback Jason Bean threw what looked to be his second back-breaking interception of the fourth quarter, Kansas’ defense actually forced Oklahoma to punt to setup its game-winning touchdown drive. 

Devin Neal scored with 55 seconds to put the Jayhawks back on top, and then they held on by batting down Dillion Gabriel’s heave into the end zone. In a raucous scene, Jayhawks fans tore down the goalposts and threw them into a lake next to the stadium after the program’s biggest home win in nearly four decades. Kansas is now 6-2 and bowl-eligible in consecutive seasons for just the second time in school history.

20. Tennessee (Last week: 21)

Behind Joe Milton’s most efficient game of the season (17 of 20 for 227 yards and one touchdown) and a prolific rushing attack from Jaylen Wright (120 yards and a touchdown) and Dylan Sampson (76 yards and a score) that was able to salt away the game with its four-minute offense, the Vols outlasted Kentucky 33-27 in Lexington. 

Tennessee scored on all five first-half possessions, including three long field goals by Charles Campbell. Without top cornerback Kamal Hadden, who was lost to a season-ending injury earlier this week, the Vols’ secondary did get torched by Kentucky’s struggling passing game, giving up 372 yard and two scores. 

21. Tulane (Last week: 22)

The Green Wave don’t make it easy, huh? For the second-straight week, Willie Fritz & Co., nearly coughed up a 20-point lead, only to hang on to beat Rice 30-28. Their defense continues to fall apart in the second half, getting out-scored 21-3 after halftime. But their offense was able to run out the clock with nearly a nine-minute drive (16 plays!) to end the game. 

Michael Pratt had three total touchdowns and over 300 total yards for the second consecutive game, while freshman Makhi Hughes rushed for a career-high 153 yards at 6.7 per clip.

22. UCLA (Last week: 23) 

The Bruins overcame four turnovers and a missed chip-shot field goal in the first half to bully Colorado 28-16 in a defensive thumping. Top transfer tailback Carson Steele fumbled twice and Ethan Garbers was picked off by Travis Hunter, and yet, UCLA actually led 7-6 at halftime as its defensive completely hounded Shedeur Sanders all night. 

They finished with seven sacks and allowed just 242 total yards. They out-rushed the Buffs 218-42. They took control of the game with three touchdowns on their first four possessions after halftime to move to 6-2. 

23. Kansas State (Last week: Unranked)

The Wildcats housed Houston 41-0 for their third blowout win in a row, and suddenly Chris Klinman’s team looks like the scariest squad in the Big 12. They haven’t allowed a touchdown in nine quarters, and Will Howard has reasserted himself as the definitive QB1 for Kansas State. He was 13 of 14 for 155 yards and two touchdowns in a nearly flawless first half. Avery Johnson played in the fourth quarter and threw for a score. 

Kansas State was up 28-0 at halftime, holding the Cougars, who put a scare in Texas last weekend, to just 83 total yards after two quarters. The Wildcats play in Austin against the Longhorns in a monster Big 12 matchup next weekend.

24. USC (Last week: 24)

The Trojans’ defense finally came up with a critical stop, knocking down Cal’s 2-point conversion with 58 seconds to beat the Golden Bears 50-49 in a wild one in Berkeley. 

USC, which actually forced four takeaways Saturday, looked dead in the water early in the fourth quarter trailing by two touchdowns, but Caleb Williams and USC’s two-headed tailback tandem MarShawn Lloyd and Austin Jones rallied back, scoring 21 straight points. Williams finished with 369 passing yards and four total scores, while Lloyd had 115 yards rushing (6.8 per carry) and two touchdowns. The Trojans snapped their two-game losing streak, and at 5-1 in Pac-12 play, remain in contention for the conference championship game despite their defensive shortcomings (527 yards allowed and 43 and 61-yard touchdown runs to Jaydn Ott). 

25. James Madison (Last week: 25)

The last time the Dukes were ranked for the first time in school history they immediately lost three straight games. They survived such a scare as a ranked team for the second time ever Saturday night. 

James Madison won its 11th-straight game dating back to last year in a tight 30-27 victory over Old Dominion. Up six early in the fourth quarter, the Dukes came up with a big goal-line stand to force a field goal that ultimately was the final score of the game. Quarterback Jordan McCloud had 350 total yards, four touchdowns and two picks. 

Projected to drop out: North Carolina, Duke