College Football Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 after upset-filled Week 6

Whew doggie, Separation Saturday delivered! In perhaps the most fun weekend of the 2023 season, we saw all sorts of shakeup in the AP Poll Top 25, as seven ranked teams lost.

Georgia reminded everyone of its potential, and Alabama handled business at Texas A&M, but Notre Dame, Washington State and Miami all lost.

With all the moving and shaking, here’s how I think the new AP Top 25 will look come Sunday:

1. Georgia (Last week: 1)

For the first time in the 2023 season, the two-time defending champs flexed, demolishing No. 20 Kentucky 51-13 in a wire-to-wire dominant performance. 

With UGA emphasizing a pass-first approach, Carson Beck threw for a career-high 389 yards and four touchdowns, as star tight end Brock Bowers led the way with seven catches for 132 yards and a touchdown.

Georgia’s defense held ‘Cats star running back Ray Davis to just 59 yards, and Devin Leary averaged just 4.9 yards per pass. 

The Bulldogs outgained Kentucky 608 to 183 with 15 explosive plays, reminding everyone what this team is still capable of this fall. 

2. Michigan (Last week: 2)

Once again, the Wolverines embraced their nameless, faceless businesslike opponent smashing, dismantling Minnesota 52-10 in their first “road test” of the 2023 season.  

Michigan had a pair of pick-sixes, including on the second play of scrimmage from sophomore standout Will Johnson, and saw its offense efficiently control the game. J.J. McCarthy completed 14 of 20 passes for 214 yards and a touchdown, while the Wolverines had eight different ball carriers combine to average 6.0 yards per carry — with McCarthy again using his legs for two scores.  The 42-point margin was Michigan’s biggest blowout win in Big Ten play since 2019, and with a couple more conference bottom-feeders on deck (Indiana and Purdue), that mark could be tested here in the coming weeks. 

3. Ohio State (Last week: 4)

The Buckeyes shook off a slow start against Maryland, turning a 17-10 deficit early in the third quarter into a 37-17 blowout win behind a monster game from All-American wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. (8 catches for 163 yards and a score). 

Without Trey Henderson, Ohio State couldn’t run the ball at all (62 yards on 33 carries), but Kyle McCord got cookin’ in the second half — finishing with a career-high 320 yards while averaging 11.0 yards per attempt. Still, OSU’s offensive slow starts remain concerning, as is a potential injury to wideout Emeka Egbuka, who had to leave the game in the fourth quarter. 

4. Florida State (Last week: 5)

Fresh off their idle date, the Seminoles jumped out a 22-0 first-quarter lead en route to a 39-17 win over Virginia Tech. The Hokies actually cut the deficit to 22-17 only to unravel midway through the the third quarter (three punts, two turnovers).

The ‘Noles finally got their ground game rolling downhill, as Trey Benson topped his season total alone in today’s win — with 200 yards on just 11 carries.

The junior had TD runs of 62 and 85 yards, and averaged 18.2 yards per touch for the game. 

FSU is now 5-0 for the first time since 2015. 

5. Penn State (Last week: 6)

After steamrolling Northwestern 41-13 behind a 31-3 second-half rout, the Nittany Lions essentially have two weeks two prepare for Ohio State in late October. They’re idle this weekend and then host UMass next Saturday. 

6. Oklahoma (Last week: 12)

Brent Venables got his first signature win with the Sooners, as Oklahoma upset No. 3 Texas 34-30 behind a MVP performance from quarterback Dillion Gabriel, who had a career-high 113 rushing yards and added 285 through the air, too. 

The Sooners were 6-of-6 scoring in the red zone, highlighted by Gabriel’s game-inning touchdown pass with 17 seconds remaining. Oklahoma turned Texas over three times, and had a goal-line stand where it stoned the Longhorns on four consecutive downs inside the 2. With no ranked team remaining on their schedule, the Sooners look like they could run the table for a potential rematch with Texas in the Big 12 title game.

7. Washington (Last week: 7)

The Huskies had their first letdown performance of the season last weekend, slipping past Arizona 31-24 against a backup quarterback. Perhaps they were already eying their bye week and prep for the Oregon Ducks, which will be the marquee game of Week 7 next Saturday.

8. Oregon (Last week: 8)

Oregon stomped Stanford 42-6 and spent their idle date resting and prepping for a Top 10 showdown at Washington next weekend. 

9. Texas (Last week: 3)

The Longhorns were undone by three Quinn Ewers turnovers, poor red zone offense (just three points on three trips including four failed attempts inside the 2-yard line) and an ability to slow Oklahoma quarterback Dillion Gabriel, losing Red River 34-30 on a late touchdown by the Sooners. 

Texas had over 500 yards of offense, but was just 5 of 14 on third down and committed nine penalties for 70 yards. It erased a 10-point deficit after a Ewers fumble, and took the lead with just under 1:20 remaining only to allow Gabriel to march 75 yards for the winning score.

10. Alabama (Last week: 11)

The Crimson Tide went to College State and took care of business against Texas A&M, holding on for a 26-20 victory behind a career performance from quarterback Jalen Milroe. 

Alabama couldn’t run the ball at all (23 total yards), so it leaned on its sophomore quarterback and green group of receivers. Milroe threw for a career-high 321 yards with three touchdowns, as Jermaine Burton was his go-to target (nine catches for 197 yards and two scores). 

The Tide certainly weren’t perfect (15 penalties for 99 yards, six sacks allowed), but they were salty defensively (306 yards allowed, five sacks) and came up with timely takeaways — an interception two plays after a Milroe pick and a blocked field goal that would’ve gone for a touchdown if not for a silly personal foul).

The rest of the projected AP Top 25:

11. North Carolina (Last week: 14)

The Tar Heels moved to 5-0 with a 40-7 splattering of Syracuse, giving the program its best start in nearly four decades. Drake Maye was magnificent, accounting for over 500 total yards and four touchdowns. The junior quarterback threw for 442 yards and three scores without an interception.

UNC’s defense continues to show encouraging signs in 2023, as it held Syracuse to just 70 total yards in the first half, and finished the win with two picks and just 3.3 yards per rush. The Tar Heels have a monster matchup versus Miami next weekend.

12. USC (Last week: 9)

The Trojans survived an upset at home against Arizona, as Caleb Williams had enough heroics to overcome a slow start offensively to outlast the Wildcats 43-41 in triple overtime. 

USC remains a joke defensively, getting down 17-0 and allowing a backup QB to throw for over 300 yards and five touchdowns. The Trojans botched a game-winning field goal in the final seconds, too, and ultimately needed another four-touchdown performance from the reigning Heisman Trophy winner just to beat one of the Pac-12 bottom-feeders.

No. 13 Louisville (Last week: 25)

The Cardinals moved to 6-0 with an upset over a Top 10 Notre Dame team, giving Jeff Brohm a monster win in Year 1 at his alma mater. In front of a sellout crowd, Louisville snapped Notre Dame’s 30-game winning streak against ACC opponents with a ferocious defensive performance and a gritty ground game from tailback Jawhar Jordan (21 carries for 143 yards and two touchdowns).

While Brohm is an offensive guru, Louisville’s defense spearheaded the upset, holding Notre Dame to under 300 yards, forcing five turnovers and limiting the Irish to just 3 of 15 on third and fourth downs.

14. Oregon State (Last week: 15)

The Beavers won a shootout out Cal, with transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei throwing for a career-high five touchdown passes in a 52-40 win. In a seesaw affair for three quarters, Oregon State didn’t salt the game away until a pair of touchdowns in the first three minutes of the fourth quarter. 

Oregon State is now off to its best start since 2013, and despite its Top 25 defense getting gashed on the ground Saturday, Jonathan Smith’s team remains a potential Pac-12 spoiler, contender. Up next, a home date with UCLA.

15. Ole Miss (Last week: 16)

A week after winning a thrilling shootout over LSU, the Rebels rallied to win a 27-20 slog against Arkansas on Saturday. Ole Miss erased a nine-point deficit to stave off an embarrassing loss, as it road tailbacks Ulysses Bentley and Quinshon Judkins down the stretch. 

The Rebels drove 75 yards to score the go-ahead touchdown (a seven-yard run by Bentley) midway through the fourth quarter, and they saw their much-maligned defense come up with multiple stops to seal the win. Entering the bye week 5-1, Ole Miss remains in the mix for the SEC West chase.

16. Utah (Last week: 18)

The Utes, 4-1 and still major players in the Pac-12 conversion, spent their bye week giving Dodge Ram pickup trucks to every player on the team as part of an NIL deal. 

That’s the good news. The better news is Utah looks like it will finally have Cam Rising back at quarterback next weekend against Cal, as the senior is set to make his season-debut after recovering from an offseason ACL surgery.

No. 17 UCLA (Last week: Unranked) 

Freshman quarterback Dante Moore tossed an interception on the opening drive and later threw a pick-six — both for the second-straight game — and yet the Bruins rallied to beat No. 13 Washington State 25-17 thanks to four defensive takeaways. 

UCLA’s 5-star freshman rebounded to throw for 290 yards, and tailback Keegan Jones scored a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns. The Bruins continue to flex their defensive improvements in 2023, holding Cameron Ward to just 197 yards passing and picking him off twice.

No. 18 Washington State (Last week: 16)

Cameron Ward had his worst performance of the season and the Cougars coughed up a fourth quarter lead to stumble on the road against UCLA 25-18. 

Wazzu led 17-12, only to give up back-to-back touchdown drives to Carson Steele (130 yards rushing), Dante Moore and the Bruins’ offense. The Cougars had four turnovers, including Ward’s first two interceptions of the year, leading to 16 points for the Bruins.

19. Duke (Last week: 19)

The Blue Devils suffered a brutal 1-2 punch last weekend against Notre Dame — coughing up a late lead and losing star quarterback Riley Leonard (high-ankle sprain) for multiple weeks. 

Still, not all is lost, as they had a well-timed idle date before a home game against NC State.

20. LSU (Last week: 23)

Thanks to the gutsy heroics of quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Tigers escaped Columbia with a 49-39 win. The senior took all sorts of vicious hits, even needing to leave the game at one point in the third quarter, only to return and rally LSU from a two-touchdown deficit. Daniels torched the Tigers’ defense for 259 yards passing and three scores, as well as 139 yards rushing and a touchdown. 

LSU’s defense allowed over 500 yards for the second straight game, but after trailing 22-7 at the end of the first quarter, the Tigers came up with enough timely stops (Harold Perkins Jr. interception, a couple turnovers on downs, a Major Burns pick-six) to move to 4-2 and stay in contention for the SEC West.

21. Notre Dame (Last week:10)

A third-consecutive primetime game proved too much for the Irish, which whittled under the bright lights against Louisville, losing 33-20 and ending any College Football Playoff hopes. 

Cardinal Stadium has proven to be a house of horrors for quarterback Sam Hartman, as the Wake Forest transfer threw six picks in his last game at Louisville in 2021 and he had five turnovers — with several more left on the table — in the loss Saturday night. Notre Dame couldn’t run the ball at all either (Audric Estime had 20 yards on 10 carries), wand the Irish had no answers for Cards tailback Jawhar Jordan (21 carries for 143 yards and two touchdowns).

22. Tennessee (Last week: 22)

Fresh off running all over South Carolina in a 41-20 win, the Vols were off this weekend before a hellish three-game stretch that sees them host Texas A&M in Knoxville and then take road trips to Alabama and Kentucky. 

Ideally, the bye week was spent on shoring up the health of the OL and getting Joe Milton and a WR room in sync.

No. 23 Kansas (Last week: Unranked)

The Jayhawks find themselves back in the AP Poll Top 25 after shaking off the big loss to Texas last weekend and running all over UCF for a 51-22 victory. Playing with backup quarterback Jason Bean for the second-straight game, Kansas nearly had a trio of 100-yard rushers — with Devin Neal (154 on 12 carries) and Daniel Hinshaw (134 on 19 rushes) leading the way for nearly 400 yards on the ground.

Kansas jumped out to a 24-0 lead in the first half, stymieing Knights quarterback John Rhys Plume, who returned to action after missing the last three games but had to exit again after the first quarter. The Jayhawks then scored a 75-yard touchdown run by Neal on the first play of the third quarter.

No. 24 Wyoming (Last week: Unranked)

The Cowboys held on to upset No. 25 Fresno State 25-19 t0o make the Mountain West race all the more interesting. Nose tackle Cole Godbout — all of 6-4, 300-pounds — sealed the victory with an interception to snap the Bulldogs 14-game winning streak, which was second only to Georgia nationally. 

Andrew Peasley tossed three touchdowns in the first half, and despite Wyoming’s complete inability to run the football, it was able to hold on for the win and should be ranked at 5-1 for the first time in 25 years.

25. Miami (Last week: 17)

In a masterclass of coaching malpractice, the Hurricanes had an epic collapse in a surefire win against Georgia Tech, losing in devastating fashion 23-20.

Mario Cristobal completely mismanaged the clock in the final possession, opting to run the football rather than take a knee and see tailback Don Chaney fumble inside the Yellow Jackets’ 25-yard line with less than 25 seconds remaining in the game. Two plays later, Haynes King had Georgia Tech in the end zone, pulling off the improbable upset. 

The Canes will have to get off the mat immediately with a road trip to North Carolina next weekend.

Projected to drop out: Kentucky, Missouri, Fresno State