College Football Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 after Washington outlasts Oregon in a Top 10 showdown

That was fun!

In a week with four marquee ranked-on-ranked matchups,  college football Saturday delivered once again — causing all sorts of shakeup in the latest AP Poll Top 25. 

Georgia sleepwalked its way past Vanderbilt to remain undefeated, while Washington outlasted Oregon in a 60-minute thriller to climb into the Top 5. Four new teams are predicted to move into the Top 25 this week, including Iowa, who beat Wisconsin despite scoring just a single offense touchdown again Saturday.

With all the moving and shaking, here’s how I think the new AP Top 25 will look come Sunday:

1. Georgia (Last week: 1)

UGA has won 24 straight games, and yet for seemingly the umpteenth time in the 2023 season, the Bulldogs mostly play with their food against an inferior Vandy team in a 37-20 win.  In a sleepy 11 a.m. start, Georgia was banged up and had guys dropping like files, including star tight end Brock Bowers who left with an ankle injury. Carson Beck had a letdown performance after his career-day against Kentucky last weekend (261 yards, two touchdowns and two turnovers).

Georgia trailed 7-0 before jumping out to a 27-7. Each team burned clock in the third quarter, with just a single possession each. Led by Daijun Edwards’ big game (146 yards and one score on 20 carries), the Bulldogs hammered the Commodores on the ground (291 yards at 7.5 per rush), while completing smothering Vandy’s ground game (18 yards on 14 carries). 

2. Michigan (Last week: 2)

The Wolverines shook off an ugly 1st quarter (two punts and a 44-yard touchdown allowed) to bludgeon Indiana 52-7, moving to 7-0 and once again looking like the most impressive team in 2023. They blanked Indiana 17-0 in the third quarter — giving them an absurd 90-0 advantage over opponents coming out of halftime.  Quarterback J.J. McCarthy continued his ruthless efficiency, completing 14 of 17 passes for 222 yards and three touchdowns to three different wideouts. 

Michigan has pummeled teams defensively all season, and Saturday was no different, with four takeaways, eight tackles for loss and four sacks. According to the AP, the Wolverines are the first FBS team to give up 10 or fewer points in its first seven games since Clemson in 1981. 

3. Ohio State (Last week: 4)

The Buckeyes overcame a host of offensive injuries to impressively rout Purdue 41-7 at a place that’s been a house of horrors for the Buckeyes over the last decade. 

Already without tailbacks TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams, as well as wideout Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State lost tailback Chip Trayanum to a potential concussion in the first quarter. They then turned to 4th-stringer Dallan Hayden, who responded with 76 yards on 11 carries and a touchdown. Backup QB Devin Brown also played a part in the run game as a Wildcat option, rushing the ball eight times for 20 yards and a score and adding a 58-yard touchdown pass. 

Kyle McCord force-fed star wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. (six catches for 105 yards and a touchdown) and tight end Cade Stover (two touchdowns), while Ohio State’s defense continued to flex in Year 2 under Jim Knowles.

Next up? A monster matchup with No. 6 Penn State.

4. Florida State (Last week: 4)

Transfer star wideout Keon Coleman stole the show in Florida State’s 41-3 rout against Syracuse, making a ridiculous one-handed catch to finish with nine receptions for 140 yards and a score. FSU is 6-0 for the first time since 2015.

Jordan Travis had three total touchdowns, including a pair of two-yard runs in the red zone, while Florida State’s defense totally stymied Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader (9 of 21 for just 99 yards, minus -10 yards rushing) and the Orange offense (nine punts, two takeaways).  The Seminoles didn’t allow a touchdown in a game for the first time this season, and have allowed just one offensive score in the last two games.

5. Washington (Last week: 7)

The Huskies won a classic against No. 8 Oregon, outlasting the Ducks 36-33 behind 302 yards and four touchdowns from Heisman hopeful Michael Penix Jr. 

The Top 10 showdown lived up to all its pregame hype, as the seesaw affair was 60 minutes of fireworks and excitement with different lead changes. Washington stopped Oregon on three separate fourth downs, including late in the fourth quarter to set up Penix’s go-ahead touchdown drive with under two minutes remaining. 

Both Rome Odunze (8 for 128 and two touchdowns) and Ja’Lynn Polk (6 for 118 and one score) had monster receiving games, while tailback Dillion Johnson provided some nice balance with 100 yards rushing on 20 carries. With the win, Wazzu now sits in the catbird seat of the Pac-12.

6. Oklahoma (Last week: 5)

Brent Venables and the Sooners enjoyed an idle date after upsetting then No. 3 Texas last weekend 34-30 in Red River. They return to action next weekend with a home date against UCF.

7. Penn State (Last week: 6)

Despite playing in a freezing downpour at Beaver Stadium, the Nittany Lions steamrolled UMass 63-0 in a completely dominating performance on offense, defense and special teams. 

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar had three touchdown passes and one rushing score, while four PSU tailbacks, led by sophomores Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 245 yards and three scores. The Nittany Lion hounded the Minutemen, allowing a measly 109 yards.

They had a pick, seven tackles and 14 tackles for loss. 

Meanwhile, cornerback Daequan Hardy had two punt returns for a touchdown — a 56-yard return to kickstart the scoring for PSU and a 68-yarder in the third quarter. The Nittany Lions look ready for their road test at Ohio State next weekend.

8. North Carolina (Last week: 14)

My what a difference Devontez Walker makes! The Tar Heels moved to 6-0 with an impressive 41-31 win over Miami, as recently reinstated transfer wideout Tez Walker had his breakout performance in a UNC uniform with six catches for 132 yards and a career-high three touchdowns. 

North Carolina trailed 17-14 at halftime only to blank Miami 21-zip in the third quarter, as quarterback Drake Maye and the Tar Heels’ defensive line took over the game.

Maye finished with close to 300 total yards and four touchdowns, while UNC harassed Tyler Van Dyke into three turnovers and four sacks. 

UNC is now off to its best start since 1997 — initially Mack Brown’s final season as head coach before bouncing for Texas.

9. Oregon (Last week: 9)

The Ducks fought valiantly in a hostile environment at Washington, but Bo Nix & Co., came up just short as field goal kicker Camden Lewis missed a 43-yarder in the final seconds that would’ve sent the game to overtime. 

Instead, Dan Lanning was left to answer questions about several fourth-down decisions in a 36-33 loss. From this vantage point, Lanning’s aggressiveness — especially in the second half when Oregon went for it twice on fourth down to no avail — was mostly justified. You can quibble with not kicking a field goal in the the final seconds of the first half, but the other decisions made total sense within the context of the game and flow. 

Nix started slow but then found his rhythm, leading Oregon back from a two-score deficit to take the lead in the fourth quarter. He finished with 377 passing yards and two scores. The Ducks also ran the ball well (204 on the ground), and actually outgained the Huskies by nearly 130 yards.

This could be the first of two matchups agains the two Pac-12 programs set to leave the conference at season’s end, now Oregon no longer has any margin for error with a very difficult remaining schedule. 

10. Texas (Last week: 10)

The Longhorns were off after losing Red River 34-30 to Oklahoma. They play a tricky trap game at Houston on Saturday, where the Cougars will be coming in hot after their Hail Mary win over West Virginia on Thursday night.

The rest of the projected AP Top 25:

11. Alabama (Last week: 10)

The Crimson Tide survived a second-half rally by Arkansas to hold on to win 24-21, moving to 6-1 (4-0 in SEC play). Quarterback Jalen Milroe hit a couple of long touchdown passes — punctuated by a 79-yarder to Kobe Prentice in the first quarter on a wide-open throw. 

Milroe finished with three total scores before Alabama’s offense completely shut down in the fourth quarter (29 total yards), allowing KJ Jefferson to lead the Razorbacks on a furious rally. The senior had two 20+ yard runs to set up both his touchdown throws. 

With under five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, the Hogs had the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead, but Tide standout pass rusher Dallas Turner ended the drive with a key sack on third down to end the threat and seal the win. 

12. Ole Miss (Last week: 13)

The Rebels were off Saturday and have a wild one at Auburn next weekend — Lane Kiffin’s first trip to the Plains since nearly taking the Tigers’ job last December.

13. Oregon State (Last week: 15)

The Beavers rolled up more than 400 yards against the No. 1 defense in the country on Saturday, beating UCLA 36-24 behind a strong showing from quarterback DJ Uiagalelei (266 yards, two touchdowns, 11.1 yards per attempt). 

Oregon State never trailed, jumping out 13-0 and taking a 23-10 lead into halftime after a 67-yard pick-six. The Beavers forced 5-star freshman Dante Moore into three interceptions, turning all three picks into scoring drives (17-0). With upcoming games against Arizona, Colorado and Stanford, Jonathan Smith’s team could be a Pac-12 spoiler — or more — in 2023.

14. Utah (Last week: 16)

Maybe Cam Rising is just never going to return? And maybe it doesn’t even matter for the Utes. 

Without their star quarterback for the sixth-straight game this season, Utah ran past a decent Cal team 34-14 with its best offensive showing of the year. Utes players all received Dodge Ram pickup trucks as part of an NIL deal last week during their bye, and they rammed the Bears on the ground Saturday. Sione Vaki led the way with 158 yards and two scores, as Utah finished with 317 yards and four touchdowns on 53 carries. 

The Utes bottled up Cal, too, holding the Bears to just 4 of 12 on third downs with two takeaways and five sacks. We’ll see if Rising ever returns, but next week might be the perfect time with a trip to USC in a rematch of last year’s Pac-12 Championship.

15. Duke (Last week: 17)

Down Riley Leonard (high-ankle sprain) and playing with backup quarterback Henry Belin IV, the Blue Devils took care of business against NC State in a 24-3 victory. 

Mike Elko’s defense suffocated the Wolfpack’s offense, which moved onto QB MJ Morris this week — allowing just 305 total yards. Duke couldn’t muster up much offensively, either (just 301 yards, 1 of 9 on third down), but two massive explosive plays — a 69-yard touchdown pass and a Jordan Waters 83-yard score — proved enough.

16. Notre Dame (Last week:21)

Notre Dame answered the ball on Saturday night, pummeling Heisman Trophy favorite Caleb Williams en route to an emphatic 48-20 win over the Trojans. 

Marcus Freeman’s defense harassed Williams for three first-half interceptions, and finished the win with five takeaways, six sacks and 11 tackles for loss. The Irish’s offense, which had been stuck in the mud the last three weeks, took advantage of short fields, and they benefited from a 99-yard kickoff return score and a 46-yard scoop-and-score fumble touchdown.

17. USC (Last week: 10)

The Trojans coughed up the football five times — including three first-half interceptions from Caleb Williams, sinking his back-to-back Heisman Trophy hopes — en route to a 48-20 drubbing at Notre Dame. 

While the Trojans’ defense actually showed up (just 251 yards allowed, 3 of 10 against third downs), Lincoln Riley’s offense was punished by the Irish’s defensive line. They had just 302 yards and allowed six sacks. 

After closing the deficit to 31-20 in the fourth quarter, USC gave up a 99-yard kickoff return for a score, and later allowed a field goal and a fumble return touchdown. The Trojans have to get off the mat fast with a game against reigning Pac-12 champs Utah next weekend.

18. Louisville (Last week: 14)

The ACC chaos season talk didn’t last a week, as Louisville, fresh off upsetting No. 10 Notre Dame, laid a complete egg on the road to 1-4 Pitt. 

In rainy conditions, Cardinals quarterback Jack Plummer had his third multi-interception game of the season, throwing two picks including one for a return touchdown. To make matters worse, Louisville lost top tailback Jawhar Jordan to an injury in the first half and he did not return. 

The Cards actually led 21-14 at halftime, but were blanked in the second half, getting outscored 24-zip as Christian Veilleux led two touchdown drives and the Panthers harassed Plummer (the pick-six, four sacks). 

19. Tennessee (Last week: 20)

For the first time in the Josh Heupel era, the Vols found a way to win ugly, beating Texas A&M 20-13 in a Derp Fest in Neyland Stadium. 

Tennessee won for the first time under Heupel when it scored less than 30 points, moving to 1-7 in such contests. With Texas A&M backed up on its own 1-yard line, Dee Williams took a short punt to the house to flip the game and give the Vols a lead in the third quarter. 

The Vols overcome a flag-fest (12 penalties for 115 yards) and another poor outing from Joe Milton (11 of 22 for 100 yards, one score, one INT) thanks to a nasty defensive effort by their front seven, which hounded Aggies QB Max Johnson all game. They had three sacks, forced two bad interceptions and added 11 hurries.

20. LSU (Last week: 22)

The Tigers breezed past Auburn 48-18 behind another 500-total yard, three-touchdown performance from dynamo quarterback Jayden Daniels. 

LSU rolled up 563 yards against the No. 5 defense in the SEC, while its defense delivered its best showing of the 2023 season, allowing 293 yards — its lowest total against a P5 team all year — with key sacks from Harold Perkins Jr. and Mekhi Wingo. 

The Tigers have rebounded well after the loss at Ole Miss, and with an upcoming game vs. Army and then an idle date before Alabama, are well-positioned to steal the SEC West for the second straight season.

No. 21 Missouri (Last week: Unranked)

The Tigers went to Kentucky and rallied from a quick 14-0 hole to win going away with a 38-21 victory. Eli Drinkwitz pulled out some razzle-dazzle to kickstart the comeback, dialing up a fake punt for a 39-yard touchdown. 

Missouri’s high-octane offense was actually put into first gear by Kentucky (Brady Cook had just 167 passing yards at 5.8 per attempt and Luther Burden had just two catches for 15 yards), yet the Tigers dominated thanks to a defense that forced three takeaways and frustrated ‘Cats quarterback Devin Leary (14 of 27 for 120 yards, 4.4 per attempt) all night. Mizzou is now 6-1 with an upcoming home game against the reeling South Carolina Gamecocks.

No. 22 Air Force (Last week: Unranked)

The Falcons rallied from a two-touchdown deficit to take down spunky Wyoming 34-27, moving to 6-0 and the top G5 team in 2023. Now the favorites to win the Mountain West, Troy Calhoun’s squad has a legitimate path to an undefeated season and a New Year’s Six bowl berth. 

Air Force trailed 21-17 at halftime, but the Falcons took the opening drive 75 yards for a score as triple-option QB Zac Larrier started to find some footing in the run game. He finished with 111 rushing yards, with Air Force totaling 356 and three scores on the ground. The Falcons’ defense came up big in the second half, holding to Cowboys to just 54 yards and 0-of-5 on third down. 

No. 23 Tulane (Last week: Unranked)

The Green Wave are now 5-1 after a 31-21 win at Memphis, their lone loss coming in a game against a Top 25 Ole Miss team without starting quarterback Michael Pratt. Tulane rallied in the second half to beat the Tigers with a pair of touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

No. 24 Iowa (Last week: Unranked)

Despite just 237 total yards — and again knifing any notion that the Drive for 325 will hit — the Hawkeyes upset Wisconsin in Madison 15-6 behind a dominant defensive and special teams performance. 

Iowa now is the frontrunner to win the Big Ten West despite starting quarterback Deacon Hill, who went 6 of 14 for 37 yards! The Hawkeyes moved to 6-1 after Leshon Williams sprinted 82 yards for the lone touchdown of the afternoon, as the two teams traded field goals with a safety sprinkled in the rest of the game. Iowa continues to lose impact players offensively each week, too, as top tight end Erick All went down with a potentially serious injury early in the first quarter. 

The Hawkeyes have now beaten the Badgers in consecutive seasons for the first time in 14 years.

No. 25 UCLA (Last week: 18) 

For the third-straight game, freshman quarterback Dante Moore tossed multiple interceptions, and for the second-time in three weeks, it was too much for the Bruins to overcome. 

Moore has thrown a pick-six in three consecutive games, and while UCLA’s No. 1-rated defense had problems slowing the Beavers’ passing game, they were playing catchup all night thanks to the struggles of their first-year QB (14 of 33 for 165 yards at just 5.0 yards per attempt).