College Football Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 after Week 4

After months of buildup for a monster Week 4 slate, Saturday delivered in spades for college football fans, as Florida State and Clemson went to overtime and Ohio State and Notre Dame was essentially decided on the game’s final play.

With six ranked-on-ranked matchups, there’s plenty of movement in the projected AP Poll Top 25, including a multiple shakeups in the Top 10.

Here’s how I think the new AP Top 25 will look come Sunday:

1. Georgia (Last week: 1)

It’s becoming more than a trend at this point. For the forth-straight Saturday, Georgia flipped the switch in the second half to run away from UAB 49-21. While the Bulldogs are certainly battered and bruised (down a slew of key starters on both sides of the ball), they again came out flat only to turn on the jets when needed. 

Brock Bowers was fantastic (120 yards and two touchdowns on nine catches), but Georgia had multiple self-inflicted turnovers on special teams and allowed two touchdowns for the second straight week. It remains to be seen if — or when — the 2023 Bulldogs’ imperfections will be truly tested, though. 

2. Florida State (Last week: 4)

The Seminoles showcased resiliency rallying from multiple deficits on the road at Clemson to beat the Tigers 31-24 in overtime, staking claim as the new top dogs in the ACC. 

Jordan Travis overcame a slew of injuries to throw for nearly 300 yards and score three touchdowns. He found transfer wideout Keon Coleman twice, including on a deep jump-ball for the game-winner. The Seminoles defense was on their heels for much of the game before a perfectly-timed blitz from linebacker Kalen Deloach tuned into a sack, scoop-and-score touchdown to tie the game.

3. Michigan (Last week: 2)

The Wolverines started Big Ten play slowly, falling behind Rutgers 7-0 before scoring the next 31 points for a 24-point victory in Jim Harbaugh’s return to the sidelines. 

Quarterback JJ McCarthy showed a little wiggle with his legs, accounting for more rushing yards against the Scarlet Knights (51) than he’d had the first three games combined (31). Blake Corum had 97 yards and two scores, as Michigan rolled up more than 200 yards on the ground. The Wolverines’ defense allowed 69-yard touchdown pass in the opening minute of the game and then completely stuffed Rutgers’ offense the rest the afternoon, chipping in a long pick-six late in the third quarter. 

4. Texas (Last week: 3)

The Longhorns handled their business on the road at Baylor, dispatching the wounded-walking Bears with a workmanlike 38-6 victory. 

After a tight first quarter, Texas ticked off three consecutive touchdown drives before halftime to create some separation, with all three scores coming via the run fro three different players — Quinn Ewers (29 yards), CJ Baxter (7 yards) and Jonathon Brooks (2 yards). Ewers finished with over 300 yards and two total scores, while the Longhorns totally bottled up a Baylor offense down its starting QB and playing with a banged up backup.  Texas harassed Sawyer Robinson out of the game, picking off the Mississippi State transfer once and finishing the game with five sacks.

5. Ohio State (Last week: 6)

The Buckeyes won an instant classic in South Bend, beating Notre Dame in a quasi-walk-off with a fourth-down goal line touchdown run by Chip Traynaum. 

Kyle McCord proved gutsy in his fourth-career start, especially with some tough late throws on the game-winning drive, but it was Ryan Day’s defense that bowed up to propel the Buckeyes to another Top 10 win. They stopped the Irish on multiple 4th-and-1s, including a stop in the red zone. They held Sam Hartman to just 175 yards passing and limited the nation’s leading rusher Austin Estime to 70 yards on 14 carries.

6. USC (Last week: 5)

Behind five total touchdowns from Caleb Williams, the Trojans outlasted an undermanned Arizona State team 42-28. USC labored through a slog performance on the road, undone by an ill-timed fumble and 10 penalties for 85 yards before putting away the Sun Devils with a scoring barrage in the in the fourth quarter.

 USC outgained Arizona State by nearly 200 yards but was just 3 of 10 on third down and saw its defense allow three 4th downs conversions before taking control of the game late in the third quarter.

7. Penn State (Last week: 7)

In a rain-slogged Whiteout, the Nittany Lions wiped out Iowa 31-0 with a dominant second-half performance. Penn State’s defense made the Hawkeyes’ already—laughably average 2023 offense look downright awful Saturday, holding Brian Ferentz’s unit to an astounding 76 total yards. 

Manny Diaz’s tenacious front forced four turnovers (all fumbles) on 36 snaps! They had three sacks and held Iowa to 1 of 9 on third downs. Aided by short fields, sophomore quarterback Drew Allar tossed four touchdowns on just 166 yards passing, while Penn State rolled up 215 yards rushing on a less-than-efficient 56 carries.  

Penn State made the statement it was looking for in advance of bigger games upcoming against Michigan and Ohio State. 

8. Washington (Last week: 8)

Michael Penix Jr. continued his Heisman Trophy campaign, throwing for 304 yards and four touchdowns before sitting out much of the second half of the Huskies’ 59-32 win over Cal.

Kalen Debeor’s offenses continue to torch 2023 defenses, averaging over 40 points and 500 yards per game this fall. Ja’Lynn Polk and Rome Odunze have been fantastic (13 catches = 4 total touchdowns and over 250 yards), as the Huskies have yet to be truly challenged so far this fall.

9. Oregon (Last week: 10)

Fueled by head coach Dan Lanning’s “The Cinderella story’s over, men. They’re fighting for clicks, we’re fighting for wins” pregame speech, the Ducks stampeded Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffalos 42-6.  Oregon racked up over 522 yards and held CU’s explosive attack to under 200 yards. Bo Nix accounted for four total touchdowns and wideout Troy Franklin torched the Buffs’ secondary (eight catches for 126 yards and two scores), which was without star corner Travis Hunter. 

Nix did throw his first interception of the season, ending Oregon’s turnover-less streak to start 2023. The Ducks’ defense hounded Colorado’s offensive line (seven sacks) and held Shedeur Sanders to just 4.8 yards per attempt. 

10. Notre Dame (Last week: 9)

Marcus Freeman and the Irish were oh-so-close top a program-defining victory, going toe-to-toe with Ohio State for four quarters before coming up a yard short by allowing the game-winning score on 4th-and-goal in a 17-14 loss — with only 10 men on the field no-less.

While gutting for Notre Dame, there’s still plenty for to play for the rest of the 2023 season. Their defense shutdown Marvin Harrison Jr. and came up with key stop after key stop until the final drive. If they don’t let this loss linger, the Irish look totally capable of running the table the rest of the season to find their way back into the College Football Playoff — but they have to get off the mat immediately next weekend as a tough test awaits in a road trip to an undefeated Duke.

The rest of the projected AP Top 25:

11. Utah (Last week: 11)

Despite playing without star quarterback Cam Rising for the fourth-straight game, the Utes continue to churn out quality wins — with Saturday’s being their best yet. 

They strangled UCLA’s wagon ground game (just 60 yards on 22 carries) and committed NSFW violence on Bruins’ quarterback Dante Moore (seven sacks). They had 11 tackles for loss and two takeaways, including a 21-yard pick-six on UCLA’s opening possession. 

It was a dominant performance and enough to help out an offense that desperately needs Rising back quickly. Nate Johnson started for the second-straight week and was just 9 of 17 for 117 yards and one touchdowns. 

12. LSU (Last week: 12)

Coming off last weekend’s splattering of Mississippi State, the Tigers slept-walked through the first quarter against rival Arkansas before waking up, rallying and then holding on to beat the Hogs with a game-winning field goal in the final seconds. 

Quarterback Jayden Daniels spearheaded the win by bombing an Arkansas secondary that provided little resistance, completing eight passes for over 20 yards — including three for touchdowns. The Arizona State transfer finished the night with four scores and 320 yards on 20 of 29 passing. 

A bit concerning: LSU’s defense. Matt House’s unit did pickoff KJ Jefferson twice, but Arkansas’ QB single-handily kept the Hogs in the game with nearly 350 total yards and three scores. The difference in the game was LSU’s ability to get stops in the red zone, with the Tigers forcing Arkansas to settle for three short field goals (all under 23 yards) over touchdown opportunities. 

13. Alabama (Last week: 13)

The Tide looked completely discombobulated offensively again in the first half Saturday against Ole Miss (Jalen Milroe red zone interception, four sacks and nine tackles for loss allowed), but they found enough of a rhythm in the second half to top the Rebels, 24-10. 

Milroe delivered a dime to freshman Jalen Hale for a 31-yard touchdown midway through the third quarter, standing tall in the pocket while getting drilled. He finished the game 17 of 21 for 225 yards. Jace McClellan was the bellcow ‘back for Alabama, rushing for 105 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. Most importantly, Alabama’s much-maligned offensive line peformed much better after halftime, not allowing a single TFL or sack in the third or fourth quarters.

The Tide flexed defensively, holding Ole Miss to a season-low in points, yards and first downs. They had five sacks, 10 tackles for loss and a Terrion Arnold interception.

14. Washington State (Last week: 21)

In the Battle of the Bastards or Battle of the Abandoned — take your pick — the Cougars outlasted Oregon State 38-35. They had to hold on for dear life in the fourth quarter (21-3), but Cameron Ward & Co., stamped their spot as a potential Pac-12 spoiler with a upset win in Pullman. 

Ward threw for 404 yards — including six passing plays that went at least 25 yards — and four touchdowns, adding a rushing score as well. The Cougars were without their leading receiver and it didn’t matter, as they torched an Oregon State defense that came into the game as a Top 15 unit. They enter their bye week 4-0 for the first time since 2017 with wins over Wisconsin and Oregon State.

15. Oklahoma (Last week: 16)

The Sooners relied on their defense to win their Big 12 opener, holding Cincy to just two field goals at home in a 20-6 win. Ted Roof’s unit picked off Emory Jones twice and held the Bearcats to just 3.8 yards per carry. 

Senior linebacker Danny Stutsman was hardly a one-man wrecking crew, but he led the way with 13 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss and a sack. Oklahoma held just a 10-3 lead at halftime though as they were completely out of sync offensively, too.

Late in the third quarter, quarterback Dillion Gabriel seemed to finally find some mojo, leading back-to-back nine-play scoring drives to salt away the win. He finished the day with 350 total yards and two scores. 

16. North Carolina (Last week: 17)

How about a left-handed touchdown from future NFL righty quarterback Drake Maye! 

The Tar Heels took care of business on the road at Pitt to win 41-24, with Maye accounting for three total scores, including a nifty off-hand flip for a touchdown when he was getting hammered by two Panthers defenders.

UNC is now 4-0 for the first time in 36 years — ironically the final season of the Mack Brown’s first go-around as the Heels’ head coach. North Carolina’s defense continues to show legitimate improvement, forcing three turnovers, holding Pitt to just 4 of 12 on 3rd/4th downs and recording five sacks. 

17. Duke (Last week: 18)

The Blue Devils moved to 4-0 on the season, routing UConn on the road 41-7 to setup a marquee matchup at home against Notre Dame next weekend with College GameDay coming to town. Despite sputtering a bit offensively (just 322 total yards, only 5 of 13 on third downs), they jumped out to a 27-0 lead behind three rushing touchdowns. 

Mike Elko’s defense really spearheaded the victory, with 305-pound senior captain defensive tackle DeWayne Carter delivering the highlight reel play with a 27-yard FAT MAN scoop-and-score touchdown in the third quarter. Duke should have its highest ranking in nearly 30 years — also the last time it was 5-0. 

18. Miami (Last week: 20)

The Hurricanes moved to 4-0 for the first time since 2017, racing past Temple 41-7 in Philly to cap their non-conference schedule before ACC play starts next weekend. 

Tyler Van Dyke tossed three more touchdowns, connecting with Xavier Restrepo on the opening drive to kickstart the rout. But most of the Hurricanes’ damage came via a well-balanced ground game that had 323 yards rushing. Five backs had at least 33 yards, with junior Henry Parrish leading the way with 139 and two touchdowns.

19. Tennessee (Last week: 11)

Joe Milton got the fireworks started immediately, racing 81 yards for a touchdown on the game’s opening play to lead the Vols to a 45-14 win against UTSA. Tennessee’s passing game still wasn’t clicking on all cylinders (just 18 of 33 for 209 yards), but their running game got back on track against an inferior opponent (303 yards, 9.2 per rush and four touchdowns). 

The Vols bottled up the Roadrunners’ offense that was playing without star quarterback Frank Harris. They picked off two different UTSA backups and held the Roadunners to just 2.2 yards per carry.

20. Ole Miss (Last week: 15)

Lane Kiffin spent the entire build-up to Ole Miss-Alabama to trolling Nick Saban only to get held to his lowest point total in an SEC game as the Rebels’ head coach. 

The 24-10 loss was deflating for a Ole Miss team looking to make a leap in the league standings. The Rebels were held to just 300 yards (a season-low), as star tailback Quinshon Judkins was bottled up (13 carries for just 56 yards) and quarterback Jaxson Dart was harassed for five sacks and a pick. Ole Miss played solid defensively for a half before Alabama’s offensive line stopped allowing pressure and started leaning on the Rebels’ undersized front.

No. 21 Oregon State (Last weekend: No. 14)

Despite a furious fourth-quarter rally, the Beavers fell short at Washington State, losing 38-35 in Pullman. 

Jonathan Smith’s squad got knocked off kilter early, trailing 35-14 at the end of the third quarter. The Beavers’ usual gnashing defense had little answers for Cameron Ward until it was too late, giving up a 63-yard touchdown on the second play from scrimmage. 

Transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei was far too inconsistent (17 of 34 for 198 yards, one touchdown and one pick) to lead Oregon State to a road win in a hostile environment, and now the Beavers must get off the mat quickly as they host Utah on Friday night on a short week. 

22. Colorado (Last week: 19)

Deion Sanders called the Buffs’ 42-6 loss to Oregon a “good, old-fashioned butt kicking,” and Coach Prime was right. Colorado was hit with a hit with a barrage of haymakers early and never could get off the mat. 

They trailed 35-0 at halftime and Shedeur Sanders didn’t find the end zone until the fourth quarter. The Buffs concerns along the lines of scrimmage were exposed, as Sanders was sacked seven times and the Ducks rushed for 240 yards at 6.3 per clip. 

Colorado was also super sloppy, committing 12 penalties for 106 yards. 

23. Florida (Last week: 25)

In a total letdown spot after upsetting Tennessee last weekend, the Gators mostly no-showed against Charlotte, settling for five field goals from Trey Smack to put away the 49ers 22-7. 

Ricky Pearsall made the catch of the year and UF’s defense held Charlotte to just 210 total yards, but otherwise it was a rinse-and-wash performance by Billy Napier’s team, which has a tough test on the road at Kentucky next weekend. 

The Gators managed just 395 yards against what was one of the worst defenses in the nation coming into Saturday, so they’ll need to be much better once SEC play resumes.

No. 24 Missouri (Last week: Unranked)

The Tigers arguably should’ve been ranked last weekend after upsetting Kansas State, but now they will be after Luther Burden put on a show-stopping performance in his hometown of St. Louis. 

The sophomore wideout torched the Memphis Tigers for 10 catches and 177 yard to help lead Mizzou to a 34-27 win to go to 4-0 — its best start since 2013. A banged up Brady Cook still threw for 341 yards and two scores, as the Tigers enter SEC play (at Vandy next weekend) with some real momentum.  

No. 25 Kansas (Last week: Unranked)

The Jayhawks are 4-0 in back-to-back seasons for the first time in 108 years! — as Lance Leipold’s squad spoiled BYU’s Big 12 debut with a 38-27 win behind three touchdown passes by Jalon Daniels. 

Kansas also benefitted from a pair of defensive scores, including a 22-yard forced-fumble return touchdown by cornerback Cobee Bryant, who also had a pick later, to kickstart the seesaw affair. Kansas rallied from a 17-14 deficit at halftime to setup a showdown at Texas next weekend. 

Projected to drop out: No. 22 UCLA, No. 24 Iowa