College Football Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 after Week 5 including a new No. 1

If Week 4 was college football’s 2023 Christmas, then Week 5 might’ve been its New Year, as Friday and Saturday delivered all sorts great games with tight finishes late. 

Georgia survived a scare at Auburn and Washington needed to hold on late to beat an Arizona team with a backup quarterback. A week after six teams received votes at No. 1, could we have a new top-ranked school entering October?

Ole Miss scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to upset LSU in Oxford and vault up the rankings, while a pair of teams from the Bluegrass State make their debut in projected AP Poll Top 25. 

Apologies to Maryland and Texas A&M which just missed the cut this week. 

Here’s how I think the new AP Top 25 will look come Sunday:

1. Michigan (Last week: 2)

The Wolverines covered a big spread for the first time all season, housing Nebraska 45-7 behind three first-half touchdowns from quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Michigan jumped on the Cornhuskers 28-zip before halftime, with McCarthy throwing a pair of scores to senior Roman Wilson, who’s eight receiving touchdowns lead the nation in 2023. For the second-straight Saturday, McCarthy did a little damage with his legs, scampering for a 21-yard touchdown. 

It was a complete performance for the Maize & Blue in their first test on the road, holding the Big Ten’s top rushing attack to just 104 yards and going straight boa constrictor mode in the second half before emptying out the bench.

2. Georgia (Last week: 1)

UGA survived a scare at Jordan-Hare Stadium, leaving Auburn unscathed with a less-than-impressive 27-20 win. Thanks to two turnovers and an inability to stop the Tigers’ perimeter run game, the Bulldogs were down 10-0 in the first quarter and later 17-10 in the third. 

Then Carson Beck and Brock Bowers caught fire, leading a second-half comeback with six key conversions (on seven tries) on third down. Beck finished with 313 yards — 157 of which went to Bowers, including the game-winning pass-and-catch for a 40-yard score inside the final three minutes. The Bulldogs continue to play with their food, and likely will (and should) be punished by voters for doing so. They have a Top 25 matchup against Kentucky in Athens next weekend. 

3. Texas (Last week: 3)

The Longhorns caught a bit of a break with Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels sidelined with a pregame back strain, but the senior doesn’t play defense for the Jayhawks, which was sliced and diced by Texas’ high-flying offense. 

Thanks to a couple of turnovers, some poor luck (Kansas had a fumble that was picked up for a touchdown) and two missed field goals, it was a 20-14 game late in the third quarter before the Longhorns ripped off 21 unanswered points to win going away 40-14. 

Texas had over 650 yards — including a whopping 336 on the ground with four touchdowns. Jonathon Brooks had 218 yards and two touchdowns (one that went 54 yards to the house). Quarterback Quinn Ewers actually got the game going on Texas’ first possession, weaving through Kansas’ defense for a 30-yard score. He also had 325 passing yards and a touchdown to AD Mitchell (big game with 10 catches for 141 yards). 

Next up is Red River and a meeting with Oklahoma for the final time as Big 12 foes.

4. Ohio State (Last week: 4)

Coming off the biggest win of the 2023 season, the Buckeyes were able to rest up after beating Notre Dame. Ryan Day’s team will host a solid Maryland team next weekend on Big Noon Kickoff.

5. Florida State (Last week: 5)

After beating Clemson in overtime last weekend, the Seminoles were idle Saturday. They host Virginia Tech next weekend, the first of three straight games at Doak Campbell Stadium.

6. Penn State (Last week: 6)

The Nittany Lions were tied 10-all at Northwestern in a sleepy noon spot, only to awaken in the second half to steamroll the Wildcats 41-13. 

Drew Allar led a pair of touchdown drives in the third quarter, scoring from the 1-yard line on a 4th-down run and then a short pass to tailback Nick Singleton to end the period. It was a bit of a slog for Penn State, who averaged just 3.4 yards per rush. Singleton fumbled the opening kickoff but did respond with 120 total yards and two scores. Manny Diaz’s unit continues to be among the best in the country, as Penn State held Northwestern to just 175 total yards. They had 16 havoc plays with a takeaway, seven tackles, five other TFLs and three PBUs.

7. Washington (Last week: 7)

After jumping out to a quick 14-0 lead in the 1st quarter, the Huskies had to hold on to stave off an Arizona team playing with a backup QB to win 31-24 entering their bye week before a showdown with Oregon. Michael Penix entered the day with a nation’s best 16 passing touchdowns, but he didn’t reach pat-dirt once despite throwing for 366 yards on 30 of 40 passing.

The nation’s best offense managed just two scoring drives after halftime, having to punt twice and turning the ball over via fumble. Penix & Co., have bombed teams deep all season but the Wildcats made them methodically march the ball downfield (multiple scoring drives over 11+ yards). Next up: A home game against the Oregon Ducks in two weeks. Buckle up.

8. USC (Last week: 8)

The Trojans went to Boulder and put on a light show for a half then forgot to plug in the power in the second half, needing to recover an onside kick to hang on to beat Colorado 48-41. Caleb Williams delivered his latest Heisman Trophy statement, tying a career-high with six passing touchdowns on 403 yards. He threw his first interception in the second half to set up a Buffs scoring drive, but otherwise, it was playground stuff from the best player in the country. 

USC was up 34-14 at halftime, but the Trojans remain an unserious as a true national title contender because of their Swiss cheese defense. They allowed 193 rushing yards to the nation’s worst rushing attack. They gave up 15 explosive plays.  If Colorado can roll up 564 yards against USC, imagine what Oregon and Washington could do.

9. Oregon (Last week: 9)

Coming off last weekend’s splattering of Colorado, Oregon shook off a shaky start at Stanford to end up spanking the Cardinal 42-6. 

The Ducks gained just six yards in the first quarter, and actually trailed 6-0 before Bo Nix and the offense started to heat up. Oregon had a pair of rushing touchdowns before halftime and then Nix came out in the second half throwing darts — with four touchdown passes on the Ducks’ first four drives. He found Troy Franklin twice and finished the night 27 of 32 for 290 yards.  Oregon had five sacks and held Stanford’s rushing attack to just 89 yards on 46 carries. They get a week to rest and prepare for a monster matchup against Washington in mid-October.

10. Notre Dame (Last week:11)

It looked as if the Irish were going to let a loss to Ohio State beat them twice for the second-straight season, but transfer quarterback Sam Hartman wouldn’t let it happen — leading a game-winning 95-yard touchdown drive against Duke that included a gusty scramble conversion on 4th-and-16. 

A play later, star tailback Audric Estime wiggled through a small hole and raced for the end zone to help deliver a 21-14 win over the Blue Devils. It was Notre Dame’s 30th-straight win against ACC teams and keeps the Irish’s playoff hopes alive. 

But it wasn’t easy. The Irish struggled to protect Hartman and couldn’t stop Duke’s rushing attack in the second half. It doesn’t get much easier for them either, with another tricky road game at Louisville next weekend.

The rest of the projected AP Top 25:

11. Alabama (Last week: 12)

The Tide bullied the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, as Alabama picked off Will Rogers three times — one for a pick-six — and held MSU to less than 270 total yards in a 40-17 win. 

Jalen Milroe was efficient with his arm (10 of 12 for 164 yards) and dynamic with his legs, racing for a 53-yard touchdown to kickstart the scoring for Alabama in the 1st quarter. The Tide had to settle for too many field goals, but Will Reichard was a perfect 4 of 4 — with two makes of 48 yards. 

Alabama has bounced-back from its loss at Texas and still looks like the class of a muddled SEC West. It has an idle date upcoming before home games against Arkansas and Tennessee. 

12. Oklahoma (Last week: 14)

Up 21-20 against a depleted Iowa State midway though the second quarter, it looked like the Sooners were looking ahead to Red River next weekend. 

Well they weren’t. Oklahoma went on to score the game’s next 29 points en route to a 50-20 rout and an empathetic statement that the Big 12 might have more than one real contender this fall. The Sooners dominated the “middle 8” (17-zip) to put the game out of reach. 

Dillion Gabriel accounted for five more touchdowns (three passing on 366 yards), while the defense/special teams contributed a pick-six to kickstart the game, another INT and a safety.   

On to a Top 10 showdown in Red River.

13. Ole Miss (Last week: 20)

In the most fun game of the day, the Rebels won a seesaw shoot against LSU, scoring the winning touchdown inside the final 40 seconds before surviving a drop on a Hail Mary in the end zone to win 55-49.

Lane Kiffin’s offense got shoved in a locker in the second-half at Alabama last weekend, but it was cooking with gas in Oxford, rolling up more than 700 yards. For the first time in school history, the Rebels had at least 300 yards passing and 300 yards rushing in the same game. 

Star tailback Quinshon Judkins nearly equaled his season-total in with 177 rushing yards on 33 carries, while quarterback Jaxson Dart was splendid, torching the Tigers for 439 total yards and five touchdowns.

14. North Carolina (Last week: 15)

The Tar Heels are 4-0 for the first time in 36 years, and were off this week before a three-game stretch at home against Syracuse, Miami and Virginia.

15. Washington State (Last week: 16)

The Cougars enjoyed an idle date after winning the Battle of the Bastards against Oregon State last weekend to move to 4-0 for the first time since 2017. 

They play at UCLA next weekend. 

16. Oregon State (Last week: 19)

Up 14-0 early in the fourth quarter against No. 10 Utah, Jonathan Smith went for the jugular, going for it on 4th-and-1 near midfield and dialing up a semi-trick play. 

The Beavers’ head coach had DJ Uiagalelei fake a sneak only to pitch the ball out wide to receiver Silas Bolden, who raced 45 yards down the sideline to seal a big 21-7 Friday night win. The Top 10 victory keeps the Beavers in the Pac-12 hunt, especially with a schedule that includes the bottom four teams in the conference over the next month.

17. Miami (Last week: 18)

The Hurricanes moved to 4-0 for the first time since 2017 last weekend. They start ACC play with a home game against Georgia Tech before it gets real with a road game at UNC and then versus Clemson.

No. 18 Kentucky (Last week: Unranked)

Mark Stoops became the first Wildcats coach since Bear Bryant in 1951 to be Florida in three straight seasons, as UK raced past the Gators 33-14 on Saturday. 

With Kentucky’s offensive line playing its best game of the season, Ray Davis ran wild on Florida’s Top 10 run defense, going for 141 yards in the first quarter alone. The Vandy transfer finished with a career-high 280 yards and four total touchdowns as the ‘Cats cemented themselves as a real player in the SEC East. 

They have monumental opportunity to make a statement next weekend in Athens against Georgia.

19. Utah (Last week: 10)

Playing without star quarterback Cam Rising for the fifth-straight game finally caught up to the Utes, which managed just 198 total yards in a 21-7 loss at No. 19 Oregon State. 

Utah’s defense held the Beavers’ prolific rushing attack to just 3.6 yards per carry, but it was fooled in the 4th quarter on a fake-sneak-pitch that resulted in a 45-yard touchdown to put any comeback thoughts out of reach. 

Still, Utah played well enough defensively again to stay undefeated (held OSU to just 4 of 15 on third down with three sacks, one INT and 13 tackles for loss), but its offensive issues were too much to overcome. Kyle Whittingham played multiple QBs again, and their ground game was awful (57 yards on 32 carries). The bye week comes at a perfect time for the Utes, who hope to finally have Rising back against Cal in two weeks.

20. Duke (Last week: 17)

With their highest ranking in 29 years and ESPN’s College GameDay in town, the Blue Devils fought valiantly for four quarters only to lose devastatingly in the final minutes against Notre Dame. 

Duke rallied from a 13-0 deficit to take a 14-13 lead late in the second half, as Mike Elko’s defense harassed Sam Hartman, bottled up Audric Estime and blanketed the Irish’s wideouts. But Elko opted to pooch punt on 4th-and-6 in plus territory rather than either attempt a field goal or keep the ball in the hands of quarterback Riley Leonard. 

Notre Dame then marched down the field 95 yards for the game-winning score. To put salt in the wound, Leonard was pasted on 4th down of the ensuing possession and looked to suffered what could be a bad leg injury.

21. Tennessee (Last week: 21)

Joe Milton may have a bazooka but Tennessee’s offensive firepower comes from its run game, as the Vols methodically gained 5, 6, and 7-yards on the ground against South Carolina in a 41-20 win. 

They finished with 238 yards rushing and three touchdowns — 123 and a tuddy from No. 1 back Jaylen Wright. In an odd sequence by the Gamecocks late in the second quarter, Tennessee picked off Spencer Rattler for a house call — turning a one-score game into a two-touchdown lead in a flash. 

Veteran center Cooper Mays made his 2023 debut and his presence was clearly felt, and now he and the rest of the Vols will get a week to rest and recover before a two-week stretch against Texas A&M at home and at Alabama.

No. 22 Missouri (Last week: 23)

Another week, another show-stopping performance from sophomore wideout Luther Burden — this time on Broadway. The former 5-star torched Vanderbilt for 11 catches for 140 yards and two scores as the Tigers bombarded the ‘Dores 38-21 through the air. 

Quarterback Brady Cook threw for a career-high 395 yards (completing 25 of his first 29 passes) and four scores, with Oklahoma transfer Theo Wease also having a big game (10 catches for 118 yards and a touchdown). The Tigers had five passes over 23 yards and now it gets to go up against a LSU secondary at home next weekend. 

More fireworks to come?

No. 23 Louisville (Last week: Unranked)

The Cardinals went on the road on a short week and squeaked out a win at NC State to remain undefeated in Year 1 under Jeff Brohm. Despite allowing just 86 yards in the first half, Louisville trailed 10-0 to start the third quarter thanks to two turnovers, a missed field goal and a couple of punts. 

But the Cards responded with just enough offense in the second half, as Jack Plummer connected with Chris Bell for a 39-yard strike and Brock Travelstead nailed a couple of field goals — including the would-be game-winner from 53 yards with under six minutes to play. 

Louisville’s defense turned Brennan Armstrong over three times and will now face an even stiffer test — albeit back at home — against former ACC quarterback Sam Hartman and the Irish next weekend.

No. 24 Fresno State (Last week: 25)

In a perfunctory performance, the Bulldogs moved to 5-0 in 2023, racing past Nevada — now 0-5 Yikes! — 27-9 late Saturday night. Fresno State cruised a 27-0 lead before putting the car in park and just bleeding out the rest of the clock.

The Bulldogs saw quarterback Mikey Keene throw a couple of picks but still lead the Bulldogs to a double-digit win and their first Mountain West victory in 2023.

25. LSU (Last week: 13)

Despite quarterback Jayden Daniels accounting for over 500 total yards and five touchdowns, LSU lost a track meet against Ole Miss in Oxford. 

Daniels was brilliant, as were LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers (both over 100 yards receiving), yet it didn’t matter because Matt House’s defense cratered for the third time in 2023 — two of which resulted in losses. 

LSU had 10 plays over 20 yards and lost because it allowed a whopping 705 total yards, 32 first downs and touchdowns on all six red zone possessions. The Tigers are certainly one of the most explosive teams in the country, but their title hopes are dashed before the end of September thanks to a defense chalked with blue-chippers that can’t cover, tackle or stop the run.

Projected to drop out: Florida, Kansas